The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson's correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.

Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model.

The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, [Formula: see text] and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.

Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (ß), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (ß), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Effectiveness of progressive muscle relaxation therapy as a worksite health promotion program in the automobile assembly line.

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of Progressive Muscle Relaxation (PMR) as part of a Worksite Health Promotion Program on self-perceived stress, anxiety and depression among male automotive assembly-line workers through a quasi-experimental trial. Two assembly plants were chosen with one receiving PMR therapy and the other Pamphlets. Intention-to-treat analysis was conducted to test the effectiveness of the relaxation therapy. Stress, Depression and Anxiety levels were measured using the shortened DASS-21 questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Chi-square, Independent sample t test and Repeated-measures analysis of variance to test the significance of the effects of intervention (time * group) for the measures of Stress, Depression and Anxiety. Significant favourable intervention effects on stress were found in the PMR group (Effect size=0.6) as compared to the Pamphlet group (Effect size=0.2). There was a significant group *time interaction effect (p<0.001) on Stress levels. Depression and Anxiety levels were minimal at baseline in both the groups with mild or no reduction in levels. The improvement in stress levels showed the potential of PMR therapy as a coping strategy at the workplace. Further research in this field is necessary to examine the beneficial effects of coping strategies in the workplace.

"Taking my breath away by keeping stress at bay" - an employee assistance program in the automotive assembly plant.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of individual-focused stress management training namely Deep Breathing Exercise (DBE) on self-perceived occupational stress among male automotive assembly-line workers. METHODS: A quasi-experimental study was conducted at 2 automotive assembly plants in Malaysia over 9 months, from January 2012 to September 2012. Assembly-line workers from Plant A received DBE training while Plant B acted as a control by receiving pamphlets on stress and its ill-effects. Intention-to-treat analysis was conducted among the self-voluntary respondents in Plant A (n=468) and Plant B (n=293). The level of stress was measured using Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) stress subscale. RESULTS: Significant favorable intervention effects were found in Plant A (Effect size=0.6) as compared to Plant B (Effect size=0.2) at the end of the study in those receiving DBE. Time and group interaction effects were examined using the repeated measure ANOVA test in which there was a significant group *time interaction effect [F (1, 1) = 272.45, P<0.001]. CONCLUSION: The improvement in stress levels showed the potential of DBE training as part of Employee Assistance Program in the automotive assembly plant. Future studies should be carried out to assess the long term effects of an on-site relaxation training to provide stronger evidence for the introduction of DBE among assembly-line workers as a coping strategy to alleviate occupational stress.