Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition.

We develop a novel approach to analysing decarbonisation strategies by linking global resource inventories with demographic systems. Our 'mine-town systems' approach establishes an empirical basis for examining the spatial extent of the transition and demographic effects of changing energy systems. The research highlights an urgent need for targeted macro-level planning as global markets see a decline in thermal coal and a ramp up of other mining commodities. Our findings suggest that ramping up energy transition metals (ETM) could be more disruptive to demographic systems than ramping down coal. The data shows asymmetry in the distribution of risks: mine-town systems within the United States are most sensitive to coal phase-out, while systems in Australia and Canada are most sensitive to ETM phase-in. A complete phase-out of coal could disrupt demographic systems with a minimum of 33.5 million people, and another 115.7 million people if all available ETM projects enter production.

Does Increasing Farm Plot Size Influence the Visual Quality of Everyday Agricultural Landscapes?

The increase in farm plot size is one of the most apparent and significant trends that have influenced central and eastern European agricultural landscapes since the 1950s. In many countries where the average plot size in traditional land-use systems did not exceed several hectares, present-day plots reach the size of 200 ha or more. In recent times, efforts have been made to reverse this trend to restore important ecosystem functions and to re-establish the aesthetic values of everyday landscapes. Visual landscape quality is becoming a major driving force in the development of agricultural landscapes with known effects on people's well-being and health, and this quality plays an increasingly important role in agricultural policies. However, no comprehensive research has been carried out to establish the links between perceived visual landscape quality and the scale of the farm plot pattern. The current study was therefore designed to determine whether greater farmland pattern heterogeneity, i.e., smaller farm plot sizes, is consistent with higher visual preferences. The results showed that people preferred a small-scale plot pattern in landscapes characterized by a flat relief and a low proportion of woody vegetation. These homogeneous landscapes were also overall considered significantly less beautiful than more diverse landscapes. However, even a moderate decrease in plot size notably improved these low beauty scores. These preferences were displayed consistently by all respondents, and most strongly by older respondents, respondents with a higher level of education, and those professionally engaged in landscape design or conservation. The high level of consensus among respondents in rejecting further land consolidation in homogeneous landscapes, which form a large proportion of European farmland, underlines that the results of this study provide a valid argument for discussing sustainable agricultural plot sizes as part of agricultural policy-making.

Governing deep sea mining in the face of uncertainty.

Progress towards deep sea mining (DSM) is driven by projected demands for metals and the desire for economic development. DSM remains controversial, with some political leaders calling for a moratorium on DSM pending further research into its impacts. This paper highlights the need for governance architectures that are tailored to DSM. We conceptualise DSM as a type of complex orebody, which encompasses the breadth of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks that make a mineral source complex. Applying a spatial overlay approach, we show that there are significant data gaps in understanding the ESG risks of DSM. Such uncertainties are compounded by fact that there are no extant commercial DSM projects to function as a precedent - either in terms of project design, or the impacts of design on environment and people. Examining the legislation of the Cook Islands and International Seabed Authority, we demonstrate how regulators are defaulting to terrestrial mining governance architectures, which cannot be meaningfully implemented until a fuller understanding of the ESG risk landscape is developed. We argue that DSM be approached as a distinct extractive industry type, and governed with its unique features in frame.

The social and environmental complexities of extracting energy transition metals.

Environmental, social and governance pressures should feature in future scenario planning about the transition to a low carbon future. As low-carbon energy technologies advance, markets are driving demand for energy transition metals. Increased extraction rates will augment the stress placed on people and the environment in extractive locations. To quantify this stress, we develop a set of global composite environmental, social and governance indicators, and examine mining projects across 20 metal commodities to identify the co-occurrence of environmental, social and governance risk factors. Our findings show that 84% of platinum resources and 70% of cobalt resources are located in high-risk contexts. Reflecting heightened demand, major metals like iron and copper are set to disturb more land. Jurisdictions extracting energy transition metals in low-risk contexts are positioned to develop and maintain safeguards against mining-related social and environmental risk factors.