ABSTRACT
A conceptual model of the combined effects of acid deposition and land-use, Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments (MAGIC), was applied to 21 upland sites in the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN) to assess the likely future recovery in response to the latest international agreements controlling anthropogenic sulphur emissions throughout Europe. Future estimates of sulphur deposition were generated by the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM), based on the agreed reductions outlined in the Second Sulphur Protocol. The results indicate only a limited degree of recovery in surface-water chemistry at all sites over the next 50 years; moreover, a continuing decline in soil base status is predicted to occur at 70% of sites, resulting in longer term reacidification of surface-water at 38% of sites. However, compared with a 'business as usual' scenario the recovery is pronounced, although acidified sites will require further reductions in acidic deposition if recovery to pre-industrial chemical conditions are to be achieved. Furthermore, land-use scenarios at afforested sites suggest that replanting of felled forest will lead to a further increase in acidification. This strengthens the argument that plantation forestry should be avoided in areas considered geologically sensitive to acidic deposition.
