Testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis amidst climate policy uncertainty: sectoral analysis using the novel Fourier ARDL approach.

In recent years, climate policy has experienced several episodes of crest and trough in the US, which has induced profound uncertainty. This climate policy uncertainty (CPU) may exert economic, social, and environmental impacts. Therefore, using the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework, this study targets to probe whether CPU affects sectoral carbon dioxide emissions (COE) in the US. We make use of advanced econometric procedures such as the novel SOR unit root test (to probe the order of integration of the entire dataset) and the novel Fourier ARDL approach (to retrieve the long- and short-run estimates). The findings delineate that the EKC holds for the industrial, electric power, commercial, and residential sectors. In addition, CPU escalates COE in the residential, commercial, and electric power sectors in both the long- and short-run. Parallel to this, CPU affects industrial COE neither in the short-run nor in the long-run. Keeping in view the key findings, we propose a set of sector-specific policy implications to curb COE.

Does sectoral energy consumption depend on trade, monetary, and fiscal policy uncertainty? Policy recommendations using novel bootstrap ARDL approach.

Since the inception of the twenty-first century, there has been a profound upsurge in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) with several economic and environmental impacts. Although there exists a growing body of literature that probes the economic effects of EPU, the EPU-energy nexus yet remains understudied. To fill this gap, the current study probes the impact of disaggregated EPU (i.e., monetary, fiscal, and trade policy uncertainty) on energy consumption (EC) in the USA covering the period 1990M1-2020M12. In particular, we use sectoral EC (i.e., energy consumed by the residential sector, the industrial sector, the transport sector, the electric power sector, and the commercial sector) in consort with total EC. The findings from the bootstrap ARDL approach document that monetary policy uncertainty (MP) plunges EC, whereas trade (TP) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FP) escalate EC in the long run. On the contrary, there is a heterogeneous impact of FP and MP across sectors in the short run, while TP does not affect EC. Keeping in view the findings, we propose policy recommendations to achieve numerous Sustainable Development Goals.

Do geopolitical risk and energy consumption contribute to environmental degradation? Evidence from E7 countries.

Environmental degradation is frequently cited as one of the eminent issues in the modern era. To limit environmental degradation, prior literature discerns several macroeconomic, socio-economic, and institutional factors that affect environmental degradation. However, the relationship between geopolitical risk and environmental degradation is understudied in the previous literature. To fill this gap, the inquiry at hand aims to scrutinize the influence of geopolitical risk on environmental degradation for E7 countries while controlling the effect of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and GDP. Further, we utilize both the ecological footprint and CO2 emissions as proxies of environmental degradation and employ second-generation panel methods for robust findings. In addition to this, the present study uses augmented mean group (AMG) estimator to provide long-run relationship among the selected variables. The findings from the AMG estimator expound that there exists environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for E7 countries. Moreover, renewable energy ameliorates environmental quality because it plunges both ecological footprint and CO2 emissions. On the contrary, non-renewable energy consumption escalates both ecological footprint and CO2 emissions. Finally, geopolitical risk tends to decrease CO2 emissions as well as ecological footprint. Our findings deduce a few policy implications to replenish environmental quality. For instance, the share of renewables in the energy mix should be surged to ameliorate the environmental quality. Further, to control both the geopolitical risk and environmental degradation at the same time, policymakers should put forward reforms and initiatives (e.g., policies to escalate R&D, technological innovations, and tax exemptions on imports of renewables) that can help to improve environmental quality without affecting geopolitical risk. At times of low geopolitical risk, environmental degradation will surge; therefore, the rate of environmental control taxes should be increased by the policymakers.

Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surge CO2 emissions? New insights from panel quantile regression approach.

In recent times, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) are increasing significantly where the economy and environment are affected by these factors. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to investigate whether EPU and GPR impede CO2 emissions in BRICST countries. We employ second-generation panel data methods, AMG and CCEMG estimator, and panel quantile regression model. The conclusions document that most of the variables are integrated at I (1), and there exists co-integration among considered variables of the study. Moreover, we note that EPU and GPR have a heterogeneous effect on CO2 emissions across different quantiles. EPU adversely affects CO2 emissions at lower and middle quantiles, while it surges the CO2 emissions at higher quantiles. On the contrary, geopolitical risk surges CO2 emissions at lower quartiles, and it plunges CO2 emissions at middle and higher quantiles. Furthermore, GDP per capita, renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and urbanization also have a heterogeneous impact on CO2 emissions in the conditional distribution of CO2 emissions. Based on the results, we discuss the policy direction.

Spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and oil price volatility to the volatility of stock markets of oil importers and exporters.

Economic policy uncertainty generally tends to induce a pessimistic view of future market behaviour. Furthermore, instabilities in global oil prices have serious implications for the economies of oil exporters and importers, due to their over-dependence on crude oil for revenue and production activities, respectively, and thereby on stock market indices. Against limited empirical evidence, this study examines the spillover effects from global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and oil price volatility to the volatility of the stock market indices of oil exporters and importers in both developed and emerging economies. The results show that the spillover effect from GEPU to oil exporters is relatively smaller than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Conversely, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters are relatively larger than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Specifically, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters (importers) in emerging countries are relatively stronger compared to oil exporters (importers) in developed countries. The findings indicate that the volatility of the stock markets of emerging countries is more sensitive to global factors such as GEPU and oil price volatility, and that oil exporters and importers in emerging economies are more sensitive to oil price volatility than oil exporters and importers in developed economies, which is in line with previous studies.

Applying a dynamic ARDL approach to the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis amid monetary, fiscal, and trade policy uncertainty in the USA.

It is well known that unemployment and environmental degradation are two critical issues across the globe. However, there is an extended dearth of literature that explores the nexus between unemployment and environmental degradation. Kashem and Rahman (Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 27(101): 31153-31170, 2020) put forward the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis, which depicts a negative relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation. This study further explores the validity of the EPC hypothesis in the case of the USA. It also investigates the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FU), and trade policy uncertainty (TU) on carbon dioxide emissions. To this end, the analysis employs the novel methodology of the dynamic ARDL model. The results document that EPC does not hold in the short run, but it does in the long run. Furthermore, both in the short and long run, MU escalates CO2 emissions, while FU plunges emissions in both the short and long run. Finally, TU does not alter the level of CO2 emissions.

Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using bootstrap ARDL approach.

Environmental concerns have become one of the top inevitable issues the world has been facing nowadays. Human-induced carbon emissions are the main reasons behind these environmental issues and to reduce them and mitigate their consequences, policymakers globally explore their drivers and determinants continuously. Although several socio-economic factors have been explored that affect the level of emissions, relatively less attention has been paid to geopolitical risk (GPR). Over the past few decades, the world has witnessed a significant rise in GPR with economic and environmental impacts. However, the existing body of literature on the GPR-environment nexus documents the contrasting conclusion, which might cause inconvenience while proposing environmental protection policies. Therefore, the present study reinvestigates the impact of GPR on carbon emissions at the global level. The findings document that, in the short run, a 1% rise in GPR impedes emissions by 3.50% globally. On the contrary, a 13.24% rise in emissions is fostered by a 1% increase in GPR in the long run. Also as was expected, we report that energy consumption leads to higher global emissions in both the short and long run. Next, this study also validates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis at the global level. Based on these aforementioned outcomes, we propose several policy recommendations to curb global carbon emissions via GPR accomplish, thus, a few sustainable development goals.

Does geopolitical risk escalate CO2 emissions? Evidence from the BRICS countries.

High levels of CO2 emissions are extensively cited as one of the main global concerns nowadays. Therefore, researchers have been investigating the factors that affect CO2 emissions. In the prior literature, several social, economic, and political drivers of CO2 emissions have been investigated; however, there is a dearth of the literature on the impact of geopolitical risks (GPR) on CO2 emissions. Hence, the objective of this study is to explore the impact of GPR on CO2 emissions in the case of the BRICS countries while controlling the effects of population, GDP, non-renewable energy, and renewable energy consumption. The study uses the recently developed GPR index, proposed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2018), and the AMG (augmented mean group) estimator method. The findings document that GPR escalates CO2 emissions. That is, a 1% increase in GPR escalates CO2 emissions by 13%. Moreover, it also reports that renewable energy consumption impedes CO2 emissions. In contrast, GDP, population, and non-renewable energy consumption surge CO2 emissions. The study also proposes a few policy implications based on the findings: (1) policymakers and government officials should try to limit GPR through peace treaties, agreements, and negotiations; (2) share of renewable energy in total energy consumption should be increased in order to plunge CO2 emissions.

Exploring a new perspective of sustainable development drive through environmental Phillips curve in the case of the BRICST countries.

Considering that the rigor of economic activities has widely been linked with the turbulent nature of the increasing global atmospheric and environmental hazards thus hampering environmental sustainability, it then presented a suggestive dilemma realizing that increasing unemployment, i.e., de-economizing human activities posit a desirable environmental quality effect. Given this backdrop, and employing the more recent estimation techniques, the current study probes the validity of the novel environmental Phillips curve (i.e., negative relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation) opined by Kashem and Rahman (Environ Sci Pollut Res 1-18, 2020). In this case, the panel of BRICST (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey) economies for the selected data set over the experimental period 1992-2016 is analyzed. After using related approaches that are designed to account for probable country-specific factors, i.e., the cross-sectional dependence concern, the findings from the PMG-ARDL model affirmed the validity of the environmental Phillips curve for the BRICST countries. Thus, there is a significant trade-off between unemployment and environmental degradation. Moreover, this study concludes that renewable energy consumption improves the environmental quality, while conventional energy sources remained detrimental factors to environmental quality in the panel of the examined countries. Therefore, the study identified that the share of renewable energy in the energy mix should be escalated to improve environmental quality and maintain or improve the employment level, thus advancing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the BRICST countries.

Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions: evidence from top ten carbon emitter countries.

Over the last few decades, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has surged across the globe. Furthermore, EPU affects economic activities, which may also generate strong CO2 emissions. The goal of this study is to explore the impact of EPU (measured by the world uncertainty index) on CO2 emissions in the case of the top ten carbon emitter countries, spanning the period 1990 to 2015. The findings from the PMG-ARDL modelling approach document that the world uncertainty index (WUI) affects CO2 emissions in both the short and the long run. In the short run, a 1% increase in WUI mitigates CO2 emissions by 0.11%, while a 1% rise in WUI escalates CO2 emissions by 0.12% in the long run. The findings could have some substantial practical effects on economic policies through which policy makers try to shrink any uncertainty by organizing and participating in international summits and treaties. In addition, international organizations could also launch certain programs to shrink uncertainties associated with economic policy. Finally, these countries should introduce innovation, renewable energy, and enforce alternative technologies that are environment friendly. Overall, governments must provide strong tax exemptions on the use of clean energy, while R&D budgets should also expand.