Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change.

The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

Diverse tsunamigenesis triggered by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption.

On the evening of 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano1 unleashed a violent underwater eruption, blanketing the surrounding land masses in ash and debris2,3. The eruption generated tsunamis observed around the world. An event of this type last occurred in 1883 during the eruption of Krakatau4, and thus we have the first observations of a tsunami from a large emergent volcanic eruption captured with modern instrumentation. Here we show that the explosive eruption generated waves through multiple mechanisms, including: (1) air-sea coupling with the initial and powerful shock wave radiating out from the explosion in the immediate vicinity of the eruption; (2) collapse of the water cavity created by the underwater explosion; and (3) air-sea coupling with the air-pressure pulse that circled the Earth several times, leading to a global tsunami. In the near field, tsunami impacts are strongly controlled by the water-cavity source whereas the far-field tsunami, which was unusually persistent, can be largely described by the air-pressure pulse mechanism. Catastrophic damage in some harbours in the far field was averted by just tens of centimetres, implying that a modest sea level rise combined with a future, similar event would lead to a step-function increase in impacts on infrastructure. Piecing together the complexity of this event has broad implications for coastal hazards in similar geophysical settings, suggesting a currently neglected source of global tsunamis.

Field survey of the 30 October 2020 Samos (Aegean Sea) tsunami in the Greek islands.

On October 30th, 2020, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore off the northern coast of Samos, Greece, generated a tsunami that impacted the nearshore Greek islands and the Aegean coastline of Turkey. Here, we describe detailed results from several post-event field surveys, and report first wave arrival timing and polarity information as well as tsunami height/runup measurements, from five islands. In Chios, wave runup reached 1.38 m, in Samos ~ 3 m, in Fourni 1.57 m, in Thimena 1.46 m, and in Ikaria 1.18 m. This event marks two milestones. One, the General Secretariat for Civil Protection of Greece, disseminated a message through Greece's 1-1-2 Emergency Communications Service to all cell phones in the eastern Aegean geographical region, warning recipients to stay away from coastal areas. According to eyewitnesses, the message was received ~ 3-5 min prior to the second and largest flood in Vathi, as the first flood had not sufficiently alarmed the local authorities to evacuate residents. Two, we were able to infer complete tsunami hydrographs from measurements for the first two floods in Vathi, which suggests that the water level rose to about one meter overland flow depth in one minute.

Anatomy of strike-slip fault tsunami genesis.

Tsunami generation from earthquake-induced seafloor deformations has long been recognized as a major hazard to coastal areas. Strike-slip faulting has generally been considered insufficient for triggering large tsunamis, except through the generation of submarine landslides. Herein, we demonstrate that ground motions due to strike-slip earthquakes can contribute to the generation of large tsunamis (>1 m), under rather generic conditions. To this end, we developed a computational framework that integrates models for earthquake rupture dynamics with models of tsunami generation and propagation. The three-dimensional time-dependent vertical and horizontal ground motions from spontaneous dynamic rupture models are used to drive boundary motions in the tsunami model. Our results suggest that supershear ruptures propagating along strike-slip faults, traversing narrow and shallow bays, are prime candidates for tsunami generation. We show that dynamic focusing and the large horizontal displacements, characteristic of strike-slip earthquakes on long faults, are critical drivers for the tsunami hazard. These findings point to intrinsic mechanisms for sizable tsunami generation by strike-slip faulting, which do not require complex seismic sources, landslides, or complicated bathymetry. Furthermore, our model identifies three distinct phases in the tsunamic motion, an instantaneous dynamic phase, a lagging coseismic phase, and a postseismic phase, each of which may affect coastal areas differently. We conclude that near-source tsunami hazards and risk from strike-slip faulting need to be re-evaluated.

The Fukushima accident was preventable.

The 11 March 2011 tsunami was probably the fourth largest in the past 100 years and killed over 15 000 people. The magnitude of the design tsunami triggering earthquake affecting this region of Japan had been grossly underestimated, and the tsunami hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the third most severe accident in an NPP ever. Interestingly, while the Onagawa NPP was also hit by a tsunami of approximately the same height as Dai-ichi, it survived the event 'remarkably undamaged'. We explain what has been referred to as the cascade of engineering and regulatory failures that led to the Fukushima disaster. One, insufficient attention had been given to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region earlier, to Japanese research suggestive that large earthquakes could occur anywhere along a subduction zone, and to new research on mega-thrusts since Boxing Day 2004. Two, there were unexplainably different design conditions for NPPs at close distances from each other. Three, the hazard analysis to calculate the maximum probable tsunami at Dai-ichi appeared to have had methodological mistakes, which almost nobody experienced in tsunami engineering would have made. Four, there were substantial inadequacies in the Japan nuclear regulatory structure. The Fukushima accident was preventable, if international best practices and standards had been followed, if there had been international reviews, and had common sense prevailed in the interpretation of pre-existing geological and hydrodynamic findings. Formal standards are needed for evaluating the tsunami vulnerability of NPPs, for specific training of engineers and scientists who perform tsunami computations for emergency preparedness or critical facilities, as well as for regulators who review safety studies.

Palaeotsunamis and tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The dominant uncertainties in assessing tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean are attached to the location of the sources. Reliable historical reports exist for five tsunamis associated with earthquakes at the Hellenic plate boundary, including two that caused widespread devastation. Because most of the relative motion across this boundary is aseismic, however, the modern record of seismicity provides little or no information about the faults that are likely to generate such earthquakes. Independent geological and geophysical observations of two large historical to prehistorical earthquakes, in Crete and Rhodes, lead to a coherent framework in which large to great earthquakes occurred not on the subduction boundary, but on reverse faults within the overlying crust. We apply this framework to the less complete evidence from the remainder of the Hellenic plate boundary zone, identifying candidate sources for future tsunamigenic earthquakes. Each such source poses a significant hazard to the North African coast of the Eastern Mediterranean. Because modern rates of seismicity are irrelevant to slip on the tsunamigenic faults, and because historical and geological data are too sparse, there is no reliable basis for a probabilistic assessment of this hazard, and a precautionary approach seems advisable.

Heavy metal distribution in opportunistic beach nourishment: a case study in Greece.

The existence and distribution of persistent pollutants, such as heavy metals, in coastal sediment used for opportunistic beach nourishment, is a problem that has not received much attention. Here, we assessed the coastal sediments in one restoration project for the occurrence and distribution of heavy metals, by utilizing an Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) system. Heavy metal point sources included (i) the effluents of small industries (tanneries), (ii) wastewater treatment plant effluents, and (iii) paint and oil scraps from substandard ship maintenance activities that take place on ports breakwaters. A few neighboring beaches were found to have similar heavy metal concentrations, with mean values of Cu, Zn, and Pb ranging from 80 to 130, 15 to 25, and 25 to 40 mg/kg, respectively. Existing legislation regarding dredging activities in Greece appears insufficient for sustainable and environmentally friendly nourishment. We conclude that before opportunistic beach restoration projects materialize with material borrowed from ports and harbors the quality of the dredged material needs to be assessed.

Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra.

A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers inland near the most populous coastal cities. Our models of historical and future tsunamis confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran communities to tsunami surges. Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004.

Initial value problem solution of nonlinear shallow water-wave equations.

The initial value problem solution of the nonlinear shallow water-wave equations is developed under initial waveforms with and without velocity. We present a solution method based on a hodograph-type transformation to reduce the nonlinear shallow water-wave equations into a second-order linear partial differential equation and we solve its initial value problem. The proposed solution method overcomes earlier limitation of small waveheights when the initial velocity is nonzero, and the definition of the initial conditions in the physical and transform spaces is consistent. Our solution not only allows for evaluation of differences in predictions when specifying an exact initial velocity based on nonlinear theory and its linear approximation, which has been controversial in geophysical practice, but also helps clarify the differences in runup observed during the 2004 and 2005 Sumatran tsunamigenic earthquakes.

Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004.

Tsunami science has evolved differently from research on other extreme natural hazards, primarily because of the unavailability until recently of instrumental recordings of tsunamis in the open ocean. Here, the progress towards developing tsunami inundation modelling tools for use in inundation forecasting is discussed historically from the perspective of hydrodynamics. The state-of-knowledge before the 26 December 2004 tsunami is described. Remaining aspects for future research are identified. One, validated inundation models need to be further developed through benchmark testing and instrumental tsunameter measurements and standards for operational codes need to be established. Two, a methodology is needed to better quantify short-duration impact forces on structures. Three, the mapping of vulnerable continental margins to identify unrecognized hazards must proceed expeditiously, along with palaeotsunami research to establish repeat intervals. Four, the development of better coupling between deforming seafloor motions and model initialization needs further refinement. Five, in an era of global citizenship, more comprehensive educational efforts on tsunami hazard mitigation are necessary worldwide.

Observations by the international tsunami survey team in Sri Lanka.

In response to the 26 December 2004 tsunami, a survey team of scientists was dispatched to Sri Lanka. Measurements made by the team show that the tsunami elevation and runup ranged from 5 to 12 meters. Eyewitnesses report that up to three separate waves attacked the coast, with the second or third generally the largest. Our conclusion stresses the importance of education: Residents with a basic knowledge of tsunamis, as well as an understanding of how environmental modifications will affect overland flow, are paramount to saving lives and minimizing tsunami destruction.