The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers: updates and extensions.

Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920-1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program (http://www.srl.cam.ac.uk/genepi/boadicea/boadicea_home.html).

Nordic collaborative study of the BARD1 Cys557Ser allele in 3956 patients with cancer: enrichment in familial BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation-negative breast cancer but not in other malignancies.

BACKGROUND: BARD1 was originally identified as a BRCA1-interacting protein but has also been described in tumour-suppressive functions independent of BRCA1. Several studies have indicated that the BARD1 gene is a potential target for germline changes predisposing to breast and ovarian cancer. The C-terminal Cys557Ser change has previously been uncovered to associate with an increased risk of breast cancer and was recently shown to result in defective apoptotic activities. AIM AND METHODS: Conformation-sensitive gel electrophoresis, minisequencing, TaqMan assays, denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography analysis and DNA sequencing were used to investigate the prevalence of the Cys557Ser allele in a large Nordic case-control study cohort consisting of 2906 patients with breast or ovarian cancer, 734 with prostate cancer, 188 with colorectal cancer, 128 men with breast cancer, and 3591 controls from Finland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway. RESULTS: The frequency of the BARD1 Cys557Ser variant seemed to increase among patients from families with breast or ovarian cancer lacking BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations: a significant difference was obtained compared with controls (6.8% v 2.7%; p<0.001; odds ratio (OR) 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7 to 4.0) and with patients from BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation-positive families (6.8% v 2.2%; p = 0.01; OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.2 to 8.3). In contrast, no major association with male breast, ovarian, colorectal or prostate cancer was observed. Additionally, a novel BARD1 allele resulting in Ser558Pro was identified in familial breast cancer cases. CONCLUSION: These results provide further evidence that BARD1 Cys557Ser confers a slightly increased risk of breast cancer in women.

Breast and ovarian cancer risks to carriers of the BRCA1 5382insC and 185delAG and BRCA2 6174delT mutations: a combined analysis of 22 population based studies.

A recent report estimated the breast cancer risks in carriers of the three Ashkenazi founder mutations to be higher than previously published estimates derived from population based studies. In an attempt to confirm this, the breast and ovarian cancer risks associated with the three Ashkenazi founder mutations were estimated using families included in a previous meta-analysis of populatrion based studies. The estimated breast cancer risks for each of the founder BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were similar to the corresponding estimates based on all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations in the meta-analysis. These estimates appear to be consistent with the observed prevalence of the mutations in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.

Average risks of breast and ovarian cancer associated with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations detected in case Series unselected for family history: a combined analysis of 22 studies.

Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, but the average magnitude of these risks is uncertain and may depend on the context. Estimates based on multiple-case families may be enriched for mutations of higher risk and/or other familial risk factors, whereas risk estimates from studies based on cases unselected for family history have been imprecise. We pooled pedigree data from 22 studies involving 8,139 index case patients unselected for family history with female (86%) or male (2%) breast cancer or epithelial ovarian cancer (12%), 500 of whom had been found to carry a germline mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Breast and ovarian cancer incidence rates for mutation carriers were estimated using a modified segregation analysis, based on the occurrence of these cancers in the relatives of mutation-carrying index case patients. The average cumulative risks in BRCA1-mutation carriers by age 70 years were 65% (95% confidence interval 44%-78%) for breast cancer and 39% (18%-54%) for ovarian cancer. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 45% (31%-56%) and 11% (2.4%-19%). Relative risks of breast cancer declined significantly with age for BRCA1-mutation carriers (P trend.0012) but not for BRCA2-mutation carriers. Risks in carriers were higher when based on index breast cancer cases diagnosed at <35 years of age. We found some evidence for a reduction in risk in women from earlier birth cohorts and for variation in risk by mutation position for both genes. The pattern of cancer risks was similar to those found in multiple-case families, but their absolute magnitudes were lower, particularly for BRCA2. The variation in risk by age at diagnosis of index case is consistent with the effects of other genes modifying cancer risk in carriers.

A missense substitution A49T in the steroid 5-alpha-reductase gene (SRD5A2) is not associated with prostate cancer in Finland.

Prostatic steroid 5-alpha-reductase gene (SRD5A2) encodes a critical enzyme involved in the conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone. A germline mis-sense substitution (A49T) leads to a variant SRD5A2 protein, which has a 5-fold higher in vitro V(max)than the wild-type protein (Ross et al, 1998; Makridakis et al, 1999). The A49T variant was recently associated with 2.5 to 3.28-fold increased risk of prostate cancer (PC) in African-American and Hispanic men (Makridakis et al, 1999). Also, Jaffe et al (2000) reported an association between A49T and more aggressive disease among Caucasian patients. Here, we report that the prevalence of the A49T variant in 449 Finnish PC patients was 6.0%, not significantly different from 6.3% observed in 223 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia or 5.8% in 588 population-based controls (odds ratio for PC 1.04, 95% C.I. 0.62-1.76, P = 0.89). There was no association between A49T and the family history of the patients nor with tumour stage or grade. Our results argue against a prominent role of the A49T variant as a genetic risk factor for prostate cancer development and progression in the Finnish population.

Germline TP53 alterations in Finnish breast cancer families are rare and occur at conserved mutation-prone sites.

We have screened for germline TP53 mutations in Finnish BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation-negative families. This study represents the largest survey of the entire protein-encoding portion of TP53, and indicates that mutations are only found at conserved domains in breast cancer families also meeting the criteria for Li-Fraumeni/Li-Fraumeni-like syndrome, explaining only a very small additional fraction of the hereditary breast cancer cases.

Haplotype analysis in Icelandic and Finnish BRCA2 999del5 breast cancer families.

The 999del5 mutation is the single, strong BRCA2 founder mutation in Iceland and the most common BRCA1/2 founder mutation in Finland. To evaluate the origin and time since spreading of the 999del5 mutation in Iceland and in Finland, we constructed haplotypes with polymorphic markers within and flanking the BRCA2 gene in a set of 18 Icelandic and 10 Finnish 999del5 breast cancer families. All Icelandic families analysed shared a common core haplotype of about 1.7 cM. The common ancestors for the Icelandic families studied were estimated to trace back to 340-1000 years, not excluding the possibility that the mutation was brought to Iceland during the settlement of the country. Analysis of the Finnish families revealed two distinct haplotypes. A rare one, found in three families in the old settlement region in southwestern Finland, shared a four-marker (0.5 cM) core haplotype with the Icelandic 999del5 haplotype. A distinct approximately 6 cM haplotype was shared by seven 999del5 Finnish families estimated to have a common ancestry 140-300 years ago. These families cluster in two geographical regions in Finland, in the very same area as those with the rare haplotype and also in the most eastern, late settlement region of Finland. The results may indicate a common ancient origin for the 999del5 mutation in Iceland and in Finland, but distinct mutational events cannot be ruled out. The surprising finding of the same mutation in two completely different haplotypes in a sparsely populated area in Finland may suggest gene conversion.

Analysis of p53 tumor suppressor gene in families with multiple glioma patients.

The high incidence of gliomas in Li-Fraumeni families and the high frequency of somatic p53 mutations in sporadic glial tumors have raised the possibility that germline p53 mutations could play an important role in familial aggregation of gliomas. In the present study, 18 families with two or more gliomas were screened for germline p53 mutation. The families were identified through questionnaires sent to 369 consecutive glioma patients operated at Tampere University Hospital during 1983-1994. In these families, a family history of cancer was verified through the Finnish Cancer Registry. Interestingly, the questionnaires reveled only 15 of 57 cancers (index gliomas excluded) retrieved through the Cancer Registry. None of the 18 families fufilled the criteria for classic Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Immunostaining analysis of p53 protein accumulation suggested that alterations of the p53 gene are as common in familial as in sporadic gliomas. Sequencing analysis of exons 4-10 of the p53 gene revealed no germline mutations in any of the 18 families. Thus, although occasional glioma families carrying germline p53 mutations have been identified in earlier studies, systematic evaluation of familial glioma patients suggests that the p53 gene is not a common susceptibility gene in case of familial gliomas. The p53 tumor suppressor gene seems to have a similar role in the tumorigenesis of most familial and sporadic gliomas.

Two percent of Finnish prostate cancer patients have a germ-line mutation in the hormone-binding domain of the androgen receptor gene.

Mutations of the androgen receptor (AR) gene have been reported in prostate cancer, usually from tumor tissue specimens from late-stage, androgen-independent cancer. Occasionally, germ-line mutations have been found, but a link between AR mutations and predisposition to human prostate cancer has not been firmly established. Recently, two independent studies reported the same germ-line mutation at codon 726 in exon E (CGC to CTC) in two apparently unrelated Finnish prostate cancer patients. This arginine to leucine substitution was reported to alter the transactivational specificity of the AR protein. In the present study, the R726L mutation was analyzed by allele-specific oligohybridization in DNA specimens from 418 consecutive prostate cancer patients who reported a negative family history (sporadic group) and from 106 patients with a positive family history (hereditary group). The population frequency of the R726L mutation in blood donors was 3 of 900 (0.33%). In contrast, eight (1.91%) mutations (odds ratio = 5.8; P = 0.006) were found in the sporadic group, and two (1.89%) mutations were found in the hereditary group (odds ratio = 5.8; P = 0.09). Suggestive evidence of the segregation of the mutation with prostate cancer was seen in these two families. The present study indicates that the R726L substitution in the AR may confer an up to 6-fold increased risk of prostate cancer and may contribute to cancer development in up to 2% of Finnish prostate cancer patients. These results warrant additional large-scale studies of the significance of rare mutations and polymorphisms in candidate genes along the androgen signaling pathway as risk factors for prostate cancer.

Multiple founder effects and geographical clustering of BRCA1 and BRCA2 families in Finland.

In the Finnish breast and ovarian cancer families six BRCA1 and five BRCA2 mutations have been found recurrently. Some of these recurrent mutations have also been seen elsewhere in the world, while others are exclusively of Finnish origin. A haplotype analysis of 26 Finnish families carrying a BRCA1 mutation and 20 families with a BRCA2 mutation indicated that the carriers of each recurrent mutation have common ancestors. The common ancestors were estimated to trace back to 7-36 generations (150-800 years). The time estimates and the geographical clustering of these founder mutations in Finland are in concordance with the population history of this country. Analysis of the cancer phenotypes showed differential ovarian cancer expression in families carrying mutations in the 5' and 3' ends of the BRCA1 gene, and earlier age of ovarian cancer onset in families with BRCA1 mutations compared with families with BRCA2 mutations. The identification of prominent and regional BRCA1 and BRCA2 founder mutations in Finland will have significant impact on diagnostics in Finnish breast and ovarian cancer families. An isolated population with known history and multiple local founder effects in multigenic disease may offer distinct advantages also for mapping novel predisposing genes.

Somatic deletions in hereditary breast cancers implicate 13q21 as a putative novel breast cancer susceptibility locus.

A significant proportion of familial breast cancers cannot be explained by mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. We applied a strategy to identify predisposition loci for breast cancer by using mathematical models to identify early somatic genetic deletions in tumor tissues followed by targeted linkage analysis. Comparative genomic hybridization was used to study 61 breast tumors from 37 breast cancer families with no identified BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Branching and phylogenetic tree models predicted that loss of 13q was one of the earliest genetic events in hereditary cancers. In a Swedish family with five breast cancer cases, all analyzed tumors showed distinct 13q deletions, with the minimal region of loss at 13q21-q22. Genotyping revealed segregation of a shared 13q21 germ-line haplotype in the family. Targeted linkage analysis was carried out in a set of 77 Finnish, Icelandic, and Swedish breast cancer families with no detected BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. A maximum parametric two-point logarithm of odds score of 2.76 was obtained for a marker at 13q21 (D13S1308, theta = 0.10). The multipoint logarithm of odds score under heterogeneity was 3.46. The results were further evaluated by simulation to assess the probability of obtaining significant evidence in favor of linkage by chance as well as to take into account the possible influence of the BRCA2 locus, located at a recombination fraction of 0.25 from the new locus. The simulation substantiated the evidence of linkage at D13S1308 (P < 0.0017). The results warrant studies of this putative breast cancer predisposition locus in other populations.

Cyclin D1 expression in astrocytomas is associated with cell proliferation activity and patient prognosis.

An important positive regulator of the cell cycle, cyclin D1, is often amplified and overexpressed in malignancies. Cyclin D1 aberrations were analysed in grade II-IV astrocytomas by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), mRNA in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Proliferation activity was determined by Ki-67(MIB-1) immunolabelling and mitotic counting. High cyclin D1 expression was observed in grade IV astrocytomas (grades II-III versus grade IV; mRNA expression: p<0.001; immunoexpression: p=0.013), and correlated with poor patient survival (p<0.001, n=46). Upregulated cyclin D1 expression was also closely associated with poor patient prognosis in grade II-III astrocytomas (p<0.001, n=30). Cyclin D1 gene was not found to be amplified (n=7). Cell proliferation activity was significantly increased in tumours exhibiting high cyclin D1 mRNA levels (Ki-67(MIB-1): p<0.001; mitotic count: p<0.001) and high cyclin D1 protein expression (Ki-67(MIB-1): p=0.002; mitotic count: p=0.012). These results indicate that increased production of cyclin D1 is closely associated with high cell proliferation activity and aggressive behaviour in diffusely infiltrating astrocytomas.

Low proportion of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in Finnish breast cancer families: evidence for additional susceptibility genes.

One hundred breast and breast-ovarian cancer families identified at the Helsinki University Central Hospital in southern Finland and previously screened for mutations in the BRCA2 gene were now analyzed for mutations in the BRCA1 gene. The coding region and splice boundaries of BRCA1 were analyzed by protein truncation test (PTT) and heteroduplex analysis (HA)/SSCP in all 100 families, and 70 were also screened by direct sequencing. Contrary to expectations based on Finnish population history and strong founder effects in several monogenic diseases in Finland, a wide spectrum of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations was found. In the BRCA1 gene, 10 different protein truncating mutations were found each in one family. Six of these are novel Finnish mutations and four have been previously found in other European populations. Six different BRCA2 mutations were found in 11 families. Altogether only 21% of the breast cancer families were accounted for by mutations in these two genes. Linkage to both chromosome 17q21 (BRCA1) and 13q12 (BRCA2) was also excluded in a subset of seven mutation-negative families with four or more cases of breast or ovarian cancer. These data indicate that additional breast and breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility genes are likely to be important in Finland.