Decreasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 revealed by robust estimates reconciling multiple data sources.

Objective: Hungary has repeatedly been shown to have the highest cancer-related mortality and incidence in Europe. Despite lung cancer being the most abundant malignant diagnosis in Hungary, numerous concerns have been raised recently regarding the bias inherent to reported incidence estimates. Re-analysis of reimbursement claims has been suggested previously by our group as an alternative approach, offering revised figures of lung cancer incidence between 2011 and 2016. Leveraging on this methodology, we aimed at updating Hungarian lung cancer incidence estimates with an additional 5 years (2017-2021), including years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we also attempted to improve the robustness of estimates by taking additional characteristics of the patient pathway into account. Methods: Lung cancer patients between 2011 and 2021 were identified based on reimbursement-associated ICD-10 codes, histology codes and time patterns. Multiple query architectures were tested for sensitivity and compared to official estimates of the Hungarian National Cancer Registry (HNCR). Epidemiological trends were estimated by Poisson-regression, corrected for age and sex. Results: A total of 89,948 lung cancer patients diagnosed in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 have been identified by our study. In 2019 alone, 7,887 patients were diagnosed according to our optimized query. ESP2013 standardized rate was estimated between 92.5/100,000 (2011) and 78.4/100,000 (2019). In 2019, standardized incidence was 106.8/100,000 for men and 59.7/100,000 for women. Up until the COVID-19 pandemic, lung cancer incidence was decreasing by 3.18% (2.1%-4.3%) yearly in men, while there was no significant decrease in women. Young age groups (40-49 and 50-59) featured the largest improvement, but women aged 60-79 are at an increasing risk for developing lung cancer. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence, especially in the 50-59 age group (both sexes). Conclusion: Our results show that using an optimized approach, re-analysis of reimbursement claims yields robust estimates of lung cancer incidence. According to this approach, the incidence rate of male lung cancer is declining in Hungary, in concordance with the trend observed for lung cancer mortality. Among women aged 60-79, the incidence of lung cancer has risen, requiring more attention in the near future.

Significant changes in advanced lung cancer survival during the past decade in Hungary: impact of modern immunotherapy and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: The approval of immunotherapy (I-O) for the treatment of late-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) opened new perspectives in improving survival outcomes. However, survival data have not yet been provided from the period of the Covid-19 pandemic. The aims of our study were to assess and compare survival outcomes of patients with advanced LC receiving systemic anticancer treatment (SACT) before and after the approval of immunotherapy in Hungary, and to examine the impact of pandemic on survival outcomes using data from the Hungarian National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) database. Methods: This retrospective, longitudinal study included patients aged ≥20 years who were diagnosed with advanced stage lung cancer (LC) (ICD-10 C34) between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2021 and received SACT treatment without LC-related surgery. Survival rates were evaluated by year of diagnosis, sex, age, and LC histology. Results: In total, 35,416 patients were newly diagnosed with advanced LC and received SACT during the study period (mean age at diagnosis: 62.1-66.3 years). In patients with non-squamous cell carcinoma, 3-year survival was significantly higher among those diagnosed in 2019 vs. 2011-2012 (28.7% [95% CI: 26.4%-30.9%] vs. 14.45% [95% CI: 13.21%-15.69%], respectively). In patients with squamous cell carcinoma, 3-year survival rates were 22.3% (95% CI: 19.4%-25.2%) and 13.37% (95% CI: 11.8%-15.0%) in 2019 and 2011-2012, respectively, the change was statistically significant. Compared to 2011-2012, the hazard ratio of survival change for non-squamous cell carcinoma patients was 0.91, 0.82, and 0.62 in 2015-2016, 2017-2018, and 2019, respectively (p<0.001 for all cases). In the squamous cell carcinoma group, corresponding hazard ratios were 0.93, 0.87, and 0.78, respectively (p<0.001 for all cases). Survival improvements remained significant in both patient populations during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021). No significant improvements were found in the survival of patients with small cell carcinoma. Platinum-based chemotherapy was the most common first-line treatment in all diagnostic periods, however, the proportion of patients receiving first- or second-line immunotherapy significantly increased during the study period. Conclusion: 3-year survival rates of NSCLC almost doubled among patients with non-squamous cell carcinoma and significantly improved at squamous cell carcinoma over the past decade in Hungary. Improvements could potentially be attributable by the introduction of immunotherapy and were not offset by the Covid-19 pandemic.