Artificial intelligence-driven antimicrobial peptide discovery.

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) emerge as promising agents against antimicrobial resistance, providing an alternative to conventional antibiotics. Artificial intelligence (AI) revolutionized AMP discovery through both discrimination and generation approaches. The discriminators aid in the identification of promising candidates by predicting key peptide properties such as activity and toxicity, while the generators learn the distribution of peptides and enable sampling novel AMP candidates, either de novo or as analogs of a prototype peptide. Moreover, the controlled generation of AMPs with desired properties is achieved by discriminator-guided filtering, positive-only learning, latent space sampling, as well as conditional and optimized generation. Here we review recent achievements in AI-driven AMP discovery, highlighting the most exciting directions.

Celloscope: a probabilistic model for marker-gene-driven cell type deconvolution in spatial transcriptomics data.

Spatial transcriptomics maps gene expression across tissues, posing the challenge of determining the spatial arrangement of different cell types. However, spatial transcriptomics spots contain multiple cells. Therefore, the observed signal comes from mixtures of cells of different types. Here, we propose an innovative probabilistic model, Celloscope, that utilizes established prior knowledge on marker genes for cell type deconvolution from spatial transcriptomics data. Celloscope outperforms other methods on simulated data, successfully indicates known brain structures and spatially distinguishes between inhibitory and excitatory neuron types based in mouse brain tissue, and dissects large heterogeneity of immune infiltrate composition in prostate gland tissue.

Synthetic lethality prediction in DNA damage repair, chromatin remodeling and the cell cycle using multi-omics data from cell lines and patients.

Discovering synthetic lethal (SL) gene partners of cancer genes is an important step in developing cancer therapies. However, identification of SL interactions is challenging, due to a large number of possible gene pairs, inherent noise and confounding factors in the observed signal. To discover robust SL interactions, we devised SLIDE-VIP, a novel framework combining eight statistical tests, including a new patient data-based test iSurvLRT. SLIDE-VIP leverages multi-omics data from four different sources: gene inactivation cell line screens, cancer patient data, drug screens and gene pathways. We applied SLIDE-VIP to discover SL interactions between genes involved in DNA damage repair, chromatin remodeling and cell cycle, and their potentially druggable partners. The top 883 ranking SL candidates had strong evidence in cell line and patient data, 250-fold reducing the initial space of 200K pairs. Drug screen and pathway tests provided additional corroboration and insights into these interactions. We rediscovered well-known SL pairs such as RB1 and E2F3 or PRKDC and ATM, and in addition, proposed strong novel SL candidates such as PTEN and PIK3CB. In summary, SLIDE-VIP opens the door to the discovery of SL interactions with clinical potential. All analysis and visualizations are available via the online SLIDE-VIP WebApp.

Discovering highly potent antimicrobial peptides with deep generative model HydrAMP.

Antimicrobial peptides emerge as compounds that can alleviate the global health hazard of antimicrobial resistance, prompting a need for novel computational approaches to peptide generation. Here, we propose HydrAMP, a conditional variational autoencoder that learns lower-dimensional, continuous representation of peptides and captures their antimicrobial properties. The model disentangles the learnt representation of a peptide from its antimicrobial conditions and leverages parameter-controlled creativity. HydrAMP is the first model that is directly optimized for diverse tasks, including unconstrained and analogue generation and outperforms other approaches in these tasks. An additional preselection procedure based on ranking of generated peptides and molecular dynamics simulations increases experimental validation rate. Wet-lab experiments on five bacterial strains confirm high activity of nine peptides generated as analogues of clinically relevant prototypes, as well as six analogues of an inactive peptide. HydrAMP enables generation of diverse and potent peptides, making a step towards resolving the antimicrobial resistance crisis.

SIEVE: joint inference of single-nucleotide variants and cell phylogeny from single-cell DNA sequencing data.

We present SIEVE, a statistical method for the joint inference of somatic variants and cell phylogeny under the finite-sites assumption from single-cell DNA sequencing. SIEVE leverages raw read counts for all nucleotides and corrects the acquisition bias of branch lengths. In our simulations, SIEVE outperforms other methods in phylogenetic reconstruction and variant calling accuracy, especially in the inference of homozygous variants. Applying SIEVE to three datasets, one for triple-negative breast (TNBC), and two for colorectal cancer (CRC), we find that double mutant genotypes are rare in CRC but unexpectedly frequent in the TNBC samples.

Deep learning-based tumor microenvironment segmentation is predictive of tumor mutations and patient survival in non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that tumor microenvironment (TME) and gene mutations are the main determinants of progression of the deadliest cancer in the world - lung cancer, their interrelations are not well understood. Digital pathology data provides a unique insight into the spatial composition of the TME. Various spatial metrics and machine learning approaches were proposed for prediction of either patient survival or gene mutations from this data. Still, these approaches are limited in the scope of analyzed features and in their explainability, and as such fail to transfer to clinical practice. METHODS: Here, we generated 23,199 image patches from 26 hematoxylin-and-eosin (H&E)-stained lung cancer tissue sections and annotated them into 9 different tissue classes. Using this dataset, we trained a deep neural network ARA-CNN. Next, we applied the trained network to segment 467 lung cancer H&E images from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. We used the segmented images to compute human-interpretable features reflecting the heterogeneous composition of the TME, and successfully utilized them to predict patient survival and cancer gene mutations. RESULTS: We achieved per-class AUC ranging from 0.72 to 0.99 for classifying tissue types in lung cancer with ARA-CNN. Machine learning models trained on the proposed human-interpretable features achieved a c-index of 0.723 in the task of survival prediction and AUC up to 73.5% for PDGFRB in the task of mutation classification. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a framework that accurately predicted survival and gene mutations in lung adenocarcinoma patients based on human-interpretable features extracted from H&E slides. Our approach can provide important insights for designing novel cancer treatments, by linking the spatial structure of the TME in lung adenocarcinoma to gene mutations and patient survival. It can also expand our understanding of the effects that the TME has on tumor evolutionary processes. Our approach can be generalized to different cancer types to inform precision medicine strategies.

CONET: copy number event tree model of evolutionary tumor history for single-cell data.

Copy number alterations constitute important phenomena in tumor evolution. Whole genome single-cell sequencing gives insight into copy number profiles of individual cells, but is highly noisy. Here, we propose CONET, a probabilistic model for joint inference of the evolutionary tree on copy number events and copy number calling. CONET employs an efficient, regularized MCMC procedure to search the space of possible model structures and parameters. We introduce a range of model priors and penalties for efficient regularization. CONET reveals copy number evolution in two breast cancer samples, and outperforms other methods in tree reconstruction, breakpoint identification and copy number calling.

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy.

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.

Data-driven case fatality rate estimation for the primary lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland.

After more than one and a half year since the COVID-19 pandemics outbreak the scientific world is constantly trying to understand its dynamics. In this paper of the case fatality rates (CFR) for COVID-19 we study the historic data regarding mortality in Poland during the first six months of pandemic, when no SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were present among infected. To this end, we apply competing risk models to perform both uni- and multivariate analyses on specific subpopulations selected by different factors including the key indicators: age, sex, hospitalization. The study explores the case fatality rate to find out its decreasing trend in time. Furthermore, we describe the differences in mortality among hospitalized and other cases indicating a sudden increase of mortality among hospitalized cases at the end of the 2020 spring season. Exploratory and multivariate analysis revealed the real impact of each variable and besides the expected factors indicating increased mortality (age, comorbidities) we track more non-obvious indicators. Recent medical care as well as the identification of the source contact, independently of the comorbidities, significantly impact an individual mortality risk. As a result, the study provides a twofold insight into the COVID-19 mortality in Poland. On one hand we explore mortality in different groups with respect to different variables, on the other we indicate novel factors that may be crucial in reducing mortality. The later can be coped, e.g. by more efficient contact tracing and proper organization and management of the health care system to accompany those who need medical care independently of comorbidities or COVID-19 infection.

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Interpretable deep recommender system model for prediction of kinase inhibitor efficacy across cancer cell lines.

Computational models for drug sensitivity prediction have the potential to significantly improve personalized cancer medicine. Drug sensitivity assays, combined with profiling of cancer cell lines and drugs become increasingly available for training such models. Multiple methods were proposed for predicting drug sensitivity from cancer cell line features, some in a multi-task fashion. So far, no such model leveraged drug inhibition profiles. Importantly, multi-task models require a tailored approach to model interpretability. In this work, we develop DEERS, a neural network recommender system for kinase inhibitor sensitivity prediction. The model utilizes molecular features of the cancer cell lines and kinase inhibition profiles of the drugs. DEERS incorporates two autoencoders to project cell line and drug features into 10-dimensional hidden representations and a feed-forward neural network to combine them into response prediction. We propose a novel interpretability approach, which in addition to the set of modeled features considers also the genes and processes outside of this set. Our approach outperforms simpler matrix factorization models, achieving R [Formula: see text] 0.82 correlation between true and predicted response for the unseen cell lines. The interpretability analysis identifies 67 biological processes that drive the cell line sensitivity to particular compounds. Detailed case studies are shown for PHA-793887, XMD14-99 and Dabrafenib.

Learning epistatic gene interactions from perturbation screens.

The treatment of complex diseases often relies on combinatorial therapy, a strategy where drugs are used to target multiple genes simultaneously. Promising candidate genes for combinatorial perturbation often constitute epistatic genes, i.e., genes which contribute to a phenotype in a non-linear fashion. Experimental identification of the full landscape of genetic interactions by perturbing all gene combinations is prohibitive due to the exponential growth of testable hypotheses. Here we present a model for the inference of pairwise epistatic, including synthetic lethal, gene interactions from siRNA-based perturbation screens. The model exploits the combinatorial nature of siRNA-based screens resulting from the high numbers of sequence-dependent off-target effects, where each siRNA apart from its intended target knocks down hundreds of additional genes. We show that conditional and marginal epistasis can be estimated as interaction coefficients of regression models on perturbation data. We compare two methods, namely glinternet and xyz, for selecting non-zero effects in high dimensions as components of the model, and make recommendations for the appropriate use of each. For data simulated from real RNAi screening libraries, we show that glinternet successfully identifies epistatic gene pairs with high accuracy across a wide range of relevant parameters for the signal-to-noise ratio of observed phenotypes, the effect size of epistasis and the number of observations per double knockdown. xyz is also able to identify interactions from lower dimensional data sets (fewer genes), but is less accurate for many dimensions. Higher accuracy of glinternet, however, comes at the cost of longer running time compared to xyz. The general model is widely applicable and allows mining the wealth of publicly available RNAi screening data for the estimation of epistatic interactions between genes. As a proof of concept, we apply the model to search for interactions, and potential targets for treatment, among previously published sets of siRNA perturbation screens on various pathogens. The identified interactions include both known epistatic interactions as well as novel findings.

CACTUS: integrating clonal architecture with genomic clustering and transcriptome profiling of single tumor cells.

BACKGROUND: Drawing genotype-to-phenotype maps in tumors is of paramount importance for understanding tumor heterogeneity. Assignment of single cells to their tumor clones of origin can be approached by matching the genotypes of the clones to the mutations found in RNA sequencing of the cells. The confidence of the cell-to-clone mapping can be increased by accounting for additional measurements. Follicular lymphoma, a malignancy of mature B cells that continuously acquire mutations in parallel in the exome and in B cell receptor loci, presents a unique opportunity to join exome-derived mutations with B cell receptor sequences as independent sources of evidence for clonal evolution. METHODS: Here, we propose CACTUS, a probabilistic model that leverages the information from an independent genomic clustering of cells and exploits the scarce single cell RNA sequencing data to map single cells to given imperfect genotypes of tumor clones. RESULTS: We apply CACTUS to two follicular lymphoma patient samples, integrating three measurements: whole exome, single-cell RNA, and B cell receptor sequencing. CACTUS outperforms a predecessor model by confidently assigning cells and B cell receptor-based clusters to the tumor clones. CONCLUSIONS: The integration of independent measurements increases model certainty and is the key to improving model performance in the challenging task of charting the genotype-to-phenotype maps in tumors. CACTUS opens the avenue to study the functional implications of tumor heterogeneity, and origins of resistance to targeted therapies. CACTUS is written in R and source code, along with all supporting files, are available on GitHub ( https://github.com/LUMC/CACTUS ).

A mathematical model of the metastatic bottleneck predicts patient outcome and response to cancer treatment.

Metastases are the main reason for cancer-related deaths. Initiation of metastases, where newly seeded tumor cells expand into colonies, presents a tremendous bottleneck to metastasis formation. Despite its importance, a quantitative description of metastasis initiation and its clinical implications is lacking. Here, we set theoretical grounds for the metastatic bottleneck with a simple stochastic model. The model assumes that the proliferation-to-death rate ratio for the initiating metastatic cells increases when they are surrounded by more of their kind. For a total of 159,191 patients across 13 cancer types, we found that a single cell has an extremely low median probability of successful seeding of the order of 10-8. With increasing colony size, a sharp transition from very unlikely to very likely successful metastasis initiation occurs. The median metastatic bottleneck, defined as the critical colony size that marks this transition, was between 10 and 21 cells. We derived the probability of metastasis occurrence and patient outcome based on primary tumor size at diagnosis and tumor type. The model predicts that the efficacy of patient treatment depends on the primary tumor size but even more so on the severity of the metastatic bottleneck, which is estimated to largely vary between patients. We find that medical interventions aiming at tightening the bottleneck, such as immunotherapy, can be much more efficient than therapies that decrease overall tumor burden, such as chemotherapy.