Does One Municipality Fit All?The Employment of Refugees in Norway Across Municipalities of Different Centrality and Size.

Refugees coming to Norway are assigned to a municipality where they start their integration process. These municipalities offer very different contexts for refugees' access to employment. Using rich register data, we study how the employment of a refugee varies by both the centrality and population size of the municipality to which he/she is assigned, conditional on existing local labor market conditions and the share of non-Western immigrants. Results show that refugees assigned to the least central municipalities are most likely to be employed the first years after arrival. However, one municipality type does not fit all: Population size matters more for men than it does for women, and there is persistent disadvantage for low-educated men assigned to large municipalities. For women, a high share of non-Western immigrants correlates with lower long-term employment. Municipality context seems to matter the least for highly educated refugees of both genders. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09618-3.

How Assad changed population growth in Sweden and Norway: Syrian refugees' impact on Nordic national and municipal demography.

In an increasingly interconnected world, the demographic effects of wars are not confined only to war zones and neighbouring areas; wars and conflicts may also change populations far away. Without the war in Syria under President Assad and the associated mass exodus of Syrian refugees, the population trends in distant countries like Sweden and Norway over the last few years would have been different. We create hypothetical scenarios of the population developments in Sweden and Norway without a war in Syria from 2011 onwards, where excess immigration due to the war and associated excess births are removed. The results indicate that population growth in 2016 would have been roughly 36% lower in Sweden and 26% lower in Norway without the Syrian war. The number of births in 2017 would have been about 3% lower in Sweden and 1% lower in Norway. One in ten municipalities would have had a population decline in 2016 instead of a population increase, and the largest immigrant group in Sweden by January 2019 would still be of Finnish origin.

Using future age profiles to improve immigration projections.

Young adults migrate more than older people. As populations in many countries get older, this may affect out-migration-and thus immigration to other countries. This is not usually accounted for in projections of future immigration, even though considerable ageing is expected globally. We show how United Nations projections of future age profiles in origin regions can be combined with those regions' emigration rates by age group to improve national projections of immigration to a destination country, exemplified by Norway. Using various methods for projecting future migration, we show that projected immigration tends to be lower when taking expected ageing in origin regions into account. This may have a considerable effect on population projections: for Norway, taking changing age profiles in origin regions into account in immigration projections would have an effect on the projected population of Norway equivalent to that of reducing the fertility assumptions by 0.1 children per woman.

Declined Total Fertility Rate Among Immigrants and the Role of Newly Arrived Women in Norway.

In many Western countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) of immigrant women has declined over the last decades. This paper proposes two methods for investigating such changes in the aggregate immigrant fertility level: what-if scenarios and a formal decomposition. Both methods disentangle the effect of changed composition-by origin area and duration of stay-from the effect of changed fertility within subgroups. The methods are applied to data from Norway, where immigrant TFR declined from 2.6 births per women in 2000 to below 2.0 in 2017. The results show that this decline is not due to successful integration, nor changed composition of immigrant women by origin area or duration of stay. A main reason for the decline is found among newly arrived immigrant women, particularly from Asia. They have a considerably lower fertility now than what the newly arrived had 15-20 years ago. After investigating several possible reasons for the TFR decline among the newly arrived, decreased fertility in origin areas is suggested as a key driver.

Changing trend? Sex ratios of children born to Indian immigrants in Norway revisited.

BACKGROUND: In some Western countries, a disturbingly low share of girls has been observed among new-borns from Indian immigrants. Also in Norway, a previous study based on figures from 1969-2005 showed a high percentage of boys among children of Indian origin living in Norway, when the birth was of higher order (third birth or later). This was suggested to reflect a practice of sex-selective abortions in the Indian immigrant population. In this article we have seen whether extended time series for the period 2006-2012 give further support to this claim. METHODS: Based on data from the Norwegian Central Population Register we used observations for the sex of all live births in Norway for the period 1969-2012 where the mother was born in India. The percentage of boys was calculated for each birth order, during four sub periods. Utilising a binomial probability model we tested whether the observed sex differences among Indian-born women were significantly different from sex differences among all births. RESULTS: Contrary to findings from earlier periods and other Western countries, we found that Indian-born women in Norway gave birth to more girls than boys of higher order in the period 2006-2012. This is somewhat surprising, since sex selection is usually expected to be stronger if the mother already has two or more children. CONCLUSIONS: The extended time series do not suggest a prevalence of sex selective abortions among Indian-born women in Norway. We discuss whether the change from a majority of boys to a majority of girls in higher order could be explained by new waves of immigrant women, by new preferences among long-residing immigrant women in Norway - or by mere coincidence.

Cancer's unequal impact on incomes in Norway.

BACKGROUND: At a group level, cancer results in reduced labor earnings. Public benefits common to welfare states may, however, compensate for all or parts of the decline in earnings. Norwegian cancer survivors' incomes, including both labor earnings and compensatory welfare benefits, were compared to those of the cancer-free population to assess potential welfare consequences of cancer. Possible modifying effects of parental and marital status, education, prior earnings and age were assessed in depth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Log-linear regression models were used to estimate incomes across different sociodemographic variables using register data covering the entire Norwegian population 40-59 years old with any income in 2008, 536 600 men and 502 500 women, of whom more than 17,000 were diagnosed with cancer in 2000-2007. RESULTS: Compared to the cancer-free general population, cancer was associated with a modest 7% decline in incomes overall. The decline was, however, significantly associated with sociodemographic factors, marital status exempted. Childless men with low education and low prior earnings were most adversely affected. Lymphomas and lung cancer accounted largely for these unfavorable effects. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in earnings after cancer are to a large degree compensated by the Norwegian welfare state, and incomes overall are only modestly decreased among cancer survivors compared to the general population. Persons with multiple unfavorable sociodemographic characteristics experience particularly low incomes after cancer. This is of concern in a supposedly egalitarian society with public health care and antidiscrimination acts in place. Welfare state interventions, i.e. work reintegration efforts and/or compensations for labor earning drops, directed specifically towards these subgroups might be warranted.