ABSTRACT
The purpose of the study is modeling and analysis of effect of social economic characteristics of regions on population mortality of cardiovascular diseases. The official data of the Federal service of state statistics of the Russian Federation were used concerning social economic indices and mortality of cardiovascular diseases in the regions of Russia in 2012. The selection of social economic indices included percentage of males in population structure, percentage of individuals of retirement age, percentage of urban population, percentage of individuals with income lower that living wage, percentage of the unemployed individuals, Gini coefficient, percentage of individuals with university education, atmosphere air pollution with emissions of permanent sources, average per capita consumption of vodka and liqueurs, criminality, percentage of regional budget for social cultural expenses, percentage of workers involved in unhealthy labor conditions from total number of population of region. The selection of indices of mortality of cardiovascular diseases included class of diseases of blood circulation system in general, ischemic heart disease and class of cerebrovascular diseases. The mortality was evaluated in overall by population and separately on able-bodied age. The modeling of dependence of mortality from social economic indices was implemented using regression analysis. The calculated ?-coefficients and coefficients of determination were applied to determine approximate input of each predictor into alteration of levels of mortality. The statistically significant mathematical models of dependence of mortality on number of social economic indices were derived. The values explain on 40-75% spreading of regional indices of mortality. The percentage of input of age factor into regional differences of mortality reaches 13-35% in various classes of cardiovascular mortality. Besides, in able-bodied age the average per capita consumption of hard alcoholic beverages (vodka and liqueurs) can be considered as a stable predictor of cardiovascular mortality with corresponding input of 5-7% in the regional differences. The other social economic indices demonstrate a statistically significant relationship only in certain indices of mortality that permits to surmise about only supposed cause-and-effect relationships.
