Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Land use-induced spillover: a call to action to safeguard environmental, animal, and human health.

The rapid global spread and human health impacts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, show humanity's vulnerability to zoonotic disease pandemics. Although anthropogenic land use change is known to be the major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations, the scientific underpinnings of land use-induced zoonotic spillover have rarely been investigated from the landscape perspective. We call for interdisciplinary collaborations to advance knowledge on land use implications for zoonotic disease emergence with a view toward informing the decisions needed to protect human health. In particular, we urge a mechanistic focus on the zoonotic pathogen infect-shed-spill-spread cascade to enable protection of landscape immunity-the ecological conditions that reduce the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts-as a conservation and biosecurity priority. Results are urgently needed to formulate an integrated, holistic set of science-based policy and management measures that effectively and cost-efficiently minimise zoonotic disease risk. We consider opportunities to better institute the necessary scientific collaboration, address primary technical challenges, and advance policy and management issues that warrant particular attention to effectively address health security from local to global scales.

Ecological countermeasures for preventing zoonotic disease outbreaks: when ecological restoration is a human health imperative.

Ecological restoration should be regarded as a public health service. Unfortunately, the lack of quantitative linkages between environmental and human health has limited recognition of this principle. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic provides the impetus for further discussion. We propose ecological countermeasures as highly targeted, landscape-based interventions to arrest the drivers of land use-induced zoonotic spillover. We provide examples of ecological restoration activities that reduce zoonotic disease risk and a five-point action plan at the human-ecosystem health nexus. In conclusion, we make the case that ecological countermeasures are a tenet of restoration ecology with human health goals.

Inferring fine-scale spatial structure of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Carpathians prior to infrastructure development.

Landscape genetics is increasingly being used in landscape planning for biodiversity conservation by assessing habitat connectivity and identifying landscape barriers, using intraspecific genetic data and quantification of landscape heterogeneity to statistically test the link between genetic variation and landscape variability. In this study we used genetic data to understand how landscape features and environmental factors influence demographic connectedness in Europe's largest brown bear population and to assist in mitigating planned infrastructure development in Romania. Model-based clustering inferred one large and continuous bear population across the Carpathians suggesting that suitable bear habitat has not become sufficiently fragmented to restrict movement of individuals. However, at a finer scale, large rivers, often located alongside large roads with heavy traffic, were found to restrict gene flow significantly, while eastern facing slopes promoted genetic exchange. Since the proposed highway infrastructure development threatens to fragment regions of the Carpathians where brown bears occur, we develop a decision support tool based on models that assess the landscape configuration needed for brown bear conservation using wildlife corridor parameters. Critical brown bear corridors were identified through spatial mapping and connectivity models, which may be negatively influenced by infrastructure development and which therefore require mitigation. We recommend that current and proposed infrastructure developments incorporate these findings into their design and where possible avoid construction measures that may further fragment Romania's brown bear population or include mitigation measures where alternative routes are not feasible.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover.

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management.

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)--water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.

Global factors driving emerging infectious diseases.

The extinction of species across the globe is accelerating directly or indirectly from human activities. Biological impoverishment, habitat fragmentation, climate change, increasing toxification, and the rapid global movement of people and other living organisms have worked synergistically to diminish ecosystem function. This has resulted in unprecedented levels of disease emergence driven by human-induced environmental degradation, which poses a threat to the survival and health of biodiversity. What is often overlooked in the discussion of the health consequences to humans is that critically endangered wildlife species are at grave risk of extinction by disease outbreaks. As habitat becomes more compressed and with migration routes cut off, gene pools of small species are stranded in isolated habitat fragments. Species now are vulnerable to encroachment, malnutrition, environmental pollutants, and epidemics from domestic animals and humans. Furthermore, the continuous degradation of ecosystems is leading to increased stress, immunosuppression, and greater susceptibility to disease. Disease can be catastrophic to a diminished stressed population, becoming in some instances the leading factor of local, regional, and global extinctions. The strategies of the new field of conservation medicine include long-term monitoring, health assessment, and interventions to protect species at risk. We particularly must minimize the threat of any potentially catastrophic disease outbreaks resulting from anthropogenic changes to the environment. Current and future diagnostic molecular techniques offer new opportunities to identify tools for the management and possible treatment of diseases in imperiled species.

Conservation medicine and a new agenda for emerging diseases.

The last three decades have seen an alarming number of high-profile outbreaks of new viruses and other pathogens, many of them emerging from wildlife. Recent outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza, and others highlight emerging zoonotic diseases as one of the key threats to global health. Similar emerging diseases have been reported in wildlife populations, resulting in mass mortalities, population declines, and even extinctions. In this paper, we highlight three examples of emerging pathogens: Nipah and Hendra virus, which emerged in Malaysia and Australia in the 1990s respectively, with recent outbreaks caused by similar viruses in India in 2000 and Bangladesh in 2004; West Nile virus, which emerged in the New World in 1999; and amphibian chytridiomycosis, which has emerged globally as a threat to amphibian populations and a major cause of amphibian population declines. We discuss a new, conservation medicine approach to emerging diseases that integrates veterinary, medical, ecologic, and other sciences in interdisciplinary teams. These teams investigate the causes of emergence, analyze the underlying drivers, and attempt to define common rules governing emergence for human, wildlife, and plant EIDs. The ultimate goal is a risk analysis that allows us to predict future emergence of known and unknown pathogens.

Unhealthy landscapes: Policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence.

Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.