Development and Validation of a Multivariable Risk Prediction Model for COVID-19 Mortality in the Southern United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical characteristics of patients admitted to the hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Southern United States and development as well as validation of a mortality risk prediction model. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Southern Louisiana was an early hotspot during the pandemic, which provided a large collection of clinical data on inpatients with COVID-19. We designed a risk stratification model to assess the mortality risk for patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. Data from 1673 consecutive patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection and hospitalized between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2020, was used to create an 11-factor mortality risk model based on baseline comorbidity, organ injury, and laboratory results. The risk model was validated using a subsequent cohort of 2067 consecutive hospitalized patients admitted between June 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. RESULTS: The resultant model has an area under the curve of 0.783 (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.81), with an optimal sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.69 for predicting mortality. Validation of this model in a subsequent cohort of 2067 consecutively hospitalized patients yielded comparable prognostic performance. CONCLUSION: We have developed an easy-to-use, robust model for systematically evaluating patients presenting to acute care settings with COVID-19 infection.

When and How Should We Revascularize Patients With Atherosclerotic Renal Artery Stenosis?

Atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis is the leading cause of secondary hypertension and may lead to resistant (refractory) hypertension, progressive decline in renal function, and cardiac destabilization syndromes (pulmonary edema, recurrent heart failure, or acute coronary syndromes) despite guideline-directed medical therapy. Although randomized controlled trials comparing medical therapy with medical therapy and renal artery stenting have failed to show a benefit for renal artery stenting, according to comparative effectiveness reviews by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the trials may not have enrolled patients with the most severe atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis, who would be more likely to benefit from renal stenting. Because of limitations of conventional angiography, it is critical that the hemodynamic severity of moderately severe (50% to 70%) atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis lesions be confirmed on hemodynamic measurement. The authors review techniques to optimize patient selection, to minimize procedural complications, and to facilitate durable patency of renal stenting. The authors also review the current American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association guidelines and the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions appropriate use criteria as they relate to renal stenting.

Renal Artery Stenosis: When to Revascularize in 2017.

Atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis is the leading cause of secondary hypertension; it can also cause progressive renal insufficiency and cardiovascular complications such as refractory heart failure and flash pulmonary edema. Medical therapy including risk factor modification, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system antagonists, lipid lowering agents, and antiplatelet therapy is the first line of treatment in all patients. Patients with uncontrolled renovascular hypertension despite optimal medical therapy, ischemic nephropathy, and cardiac destabilization syndromes who have severe renal artery stenosis are likely to benefit from renal artery revascularization. Screening for renal artery stenosis can be done with Doppler ultrasonography, computed tomographic angiography and magnetic resonance angiography. Invasive physiologic measurements are useful to confirm the severity of renal hypoperfusion and therefore improve the selection patients likely to respond to renal artery revascularization. Primary patency exceeds 80% at 5 years and surveillance for in-stent restenosis can be done with periodic clinical, laboratory, and imaging follow-up.

[Bidirectional impact of two chronic diseases: heart failure and diabetes mellitus]. / El impacto bidireccional de dos enfermedades crónicas: insuficiencia cardíaca y diabetes mellitus.

Heart failure remains a significant burden to healthcare systems. Even of the advances in medical therapy, heart failure morbidity and mortality have not been significantly reduced. Diabetes mellitus has shown to be a significant risk factor for the development and prognosis of heart failure. Traditionally, these two chronic illnesses have been managed in relative isolation. Clinicians should be more cognizant of the bidirectional impact between heart failure and diabetes.

La insuficiencia cardíaca sigue siendo una carga significativa para los sistemas de salud. A pesar de los avances en la terapia médica, la morbilidad y mortalidad de esta enfermedad no se han reducido significativamente. La diabetes mellitus ha demostrado ser un factor de riesgo para el desarrollo y el pronóstico de la insuficiencia cardiaca. Tradicionalmente estas dos enfermedades crónicas se han manejado aisladamente a pesar de su elevada coexistencia. Los clínicos deben ser más conscientes del impacto bidireccional entre la insuficiencia cardiaca y la diabetes mellitus.

Persistently high venous-to-arterial carbon dioxide differences during early resuscitation are associated with poor outcomes in septic shock.

INTRODUCTION: Venous-to-arterial carbon dioxide difference (Pv-aCO2) may reflect the adequacy of blood flow during shock states. We sought to test whether the development of Pv-aCO2 during the very early phases of resuscitation is related to multi-organ dysfunction and outcomes in a population of septic shock patients resuscitated targeting the usual oxygen-derived and hemodynamic parameters. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 60-bed mixed ICU in a University affiliated Hospital. 85 patients with a new septic shock episode were included. A Pv-aCO2 value ≥ 6 mmHg was considered to be high. Patients were classified in four predefined groups according to the Pv-aCO2 evolution during the first 6 hours of resuscitation: (1) persistently high Pv-aCO2 (high at T0 and T6); (2) increasing Pv-aCO2 (normal at T0, high at T6); (3) decreasing Pv-aCO2 (high at T0, normal at T6); and (4) persistently normal Pv-aCO2 (normal at T0 and T6). Multiorgan dysfunction at day-3 was compared for predefined groups and a Kaplan Meier curve was constructed to show the survival probabilities at day-28 using a log-rank test to evaluate differences between groups. A Spearman-Rho was used to test the agreement between cardiac output and Pv-aCO2. Finally, we calculated the mortality risk ratios at day-28 among patients attaining normal oxygen parameters but with a concomitantly increased Pv-aCO2. RESULTS: Patients with persistently high and increasing Pv-aCO2 at T6 had significant higher SOFA scores at day-3 (p < 0.001) and higher mortality rates at day-28 (log rank test: 19.21, p < 0.001) compared with patients who evolved with normal Pv-aCO2 at T6. Interestingly, a poor agreement between cardiac output and Pv-aCO2 was observed (r2 = 0.025, p < 0.01) at different points of resuscitation. Patients who reached a central venous saturation (ScvO)2 ≥ 70% or mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2) ≥ 65% but with concomitantly high Pv-aCO2 at different developmental points (i.e., T0, T6 and T12) had a significant mortality risk ratio at day-28. CONCLUSION: The persistence of high Pv-aCO2 during the early resuscitation of septic shock was associated with more severe multi-organ dysfunction and worse outcomes at day-28. Although mechanisms conducting to increase Pv-aCO2 during septic shock are insufficiently understood, Pv-aCO2 could identify a high risk of death in apparently resuscitated patients.

Emergence of KPC-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Trinidad and Tobago.

In 2006, the first isolate of KPC-2-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the world was identified in Colombia. Recently, similar strains have been reported in Puerto Rico. We now report KPC-2-producing P. aeruginosa in Trinidad and Tobago. Surveillance for similar strains is warranted, considering their wide geographic spread and known association with mobile genetic elements.

Emergence of KPC-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Trinidad and Tobago.

In 2006, the first isolate of KPC-2-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the world was identified in Colombia. Recently, similar strains have been reported in Puerto Rico. We now report KPC-2-producing P. aeruginosa in Trinidad and Tobago. Surveillance for similar strains is warranted, considering their wide geographic spread and known association with mobile genetic elements.