Bleeding and Ischemic Risk Prediction in Patients With High Bleeding Risk (an EVOLVE Short DAPT Analysis).

The EVOLVE Short DAPT study demonstrated the safety of truncated dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in patients with a high bleeding risk (HBR) treated with SYNERGY stent(s) (Boston Scientific Company, Marlborough, Massachusetts). In this population, bleeding and ischemic risk prediction may further inform DAPT decisions. This post hoc analysis of the EVOLVE Short DAPT study identified predictors of ischemic and bleeding events up to 15 months using Cox proportional hazard models. The predicted probabilities of bleeding were calculated using the Breslow method. Of 2,009 enrolled patients, 96.9% of the patients met at least 1 HBR criteria. At 15 months, the cumulative incidences of bleeding and ischemic events were 6.3% and 6.0%, respectively. The risk of bleeding was increased in patients who received oral anticoagulants (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50 to 3.36, p <0.001) or had peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.56, p = 0.045). The risk of ischemic events was increased in patients with diabetes (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.78, p <0.01) or congestive heart failure (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.04, p <0.001). Renal insufficiency/failure was associated with both endpoints. There was a strong positive correlation between the predicted probability of ischemic and bleeding events (R = 0.77, p <0.001). In 617 patients with a predicted bleeding risk <4%, ischemic events predominated, and the ischemic and bleeding rates were higher in patients with a predicted bleeding risk ≥4%. Within an HBR cohort, specific characteristics identify patients at a higher risk for ischemic and separately, bleeding events. Increased bleeding risk is tied to increased ischemic risk. In conclusion, standardized risk models are needed to inform DAPT decisions in patients with a higher risk. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02605447.

Primary Results of the EVOLVE Short DAPT Study: Evaluation of 3-Month Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in High Bleeding Risk Patients Treated With a Bioabsorbable Polymer-Coated Everolimus-Eluting Stent.

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Evacetrapib and Cardiovascular Outcomes in High-Risk Vascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: The cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor evacetrapib substantially raises the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, reduces the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level, and enhances cellular cholesterol efflux capacity. We sought to determine the effect of evacetrapib on major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with high-risk vascular disease. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, we enrolled 12,092 patients who had at least one of the following conditions: an acute coronary syndrome within the previous 30 to 365 days, cerebrovascular atherosclerotic disease, peripheral vascular arterial disease, or diabetes mellitus with coronary artery disease. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either evacetrapib at a dose of 130 mg or matching placebo, administered daily, in addition to standard medical therapy. The primary efficacy end point was the first occurrence of any component of the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: At 3 months, a 31.1% decrease in the mean LDL cholesterol level was observed with evacetrapib versus a 6.0% increase with placebo, and a 133.2% increase in the mean HDL cholesterol level was seen with evacetrapib versus a 1.6% increase with placebo. After 1363 of the planned 1670 primary end-point events had occurred, the data and safety monitoring board recommended that the trial be terminated early because of a lack of efficacy. After a median of 26 months of evacetrapib or placebo, a primary end-point event occurred in 12.9% of the patients in the evacetrapib group and in 12.8% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.11; P=0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Although the cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor evacetrapib had favorable effects on established lipid biomarkers, treatment with evacetrapib did not result in a lower rate of cardiovascular events than placebo among patients with high-risk vascular disease. (Funded by Eli Lilly; ACCELERATE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01687998 .).

Multicenter validation of the diagnostic accuracy of a blood-based gene expression test for assessing obstructive coronary artery disease in nondiabetic patients.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in at-risk patients can be challenging and typically requires both noninvasive imaging methods and coronary angiography, the gold standard. Previous studies have suggested that peripheral blood gene expression can indicate the presence of CAD. OBJECTIVE: To validate a previously developed 23-gene, expression-based classification test for diagnosis of obstructive CAD in nondiabetic patients. DESIGN: Multicenter prospective trial with blood samples obtained before coronary angiography. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00500617) SETTING: 39 centers in the United States. PATIENTS: An independent validation cohort of 526 nondiabetic patients with a clinical indication for coronary angiography. MEASUREMENTS: Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of classifier score measured by real-time polymerase chain reaction, additivity to clinical factors, and reclassification of patient disease likelihood versus disease status defined by quantitative coronary angiography. Obstructive CAD was defined as 50% or greater stenosis in 1 or more major coronary arteries by quantitative coronary angiography. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.70 ± 0.02 (P < 0.001); the test added to clinical variables (Diamond-Forrester method) (AUC, 0.72 with the test vs. 0.66 without; P = 0.003) and added somewhat to an expanded clinical model (AUC, 0.745 with the test vs. 0.732 without; P = 0.089). The test improved net reclassification over both the Diamond-Forrester method and the expanded clinical model (P < 0.001). At a score threshold that corresponded to a 20% likelihood of obstructive CAD (14.75), the sensitivity and specificity were 85% and 43% (yielding a negative predictive value of 83% and a positive predictive value of 46%), with 33% of patient scores below this threshold. LIMITATION: Patients with chronic inflammatory disorders, elevated levels of leukocytes or cardiac protein markers, or diabetes were excluded. CONCLUSION: A noninvasive whole-blood test based on gene expression and demographic characteristics may be useful for assessing obstructive CAD in nondiabetic patients without known CAD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: CardioDx.