Bayesian Optimization for Cascade-Type Multistage Processes.

Complex processes in science and engineering are often formulated as multistage decision-making problems. In this letter, we consider a cascade process, a type of multistage decision-making process. This is a multistage process in which the output of one stage is used as an input for the subsequent stage. When the cost of each stage is expensive, it is difficult to search for the optimal controllable parameters for each stage exhaustively. To address this problem, we formulate the optimization of the cascade process as an extension of the Bayesian optimization framework and propose two types of acquisition functions based on credible intervals and expected improvement. We investigate the theoretical properties of the proposed acquisition functions and demonstrate their effectiveness through numerical experiments. In addition, we consider suspension setting, an extension in which we are allowed to suspend the cascade process at the middle of the multistage decision-making process that often arises in practical problems. We apply the proposed method in a test problem involving a solar cell simulator, the motivation for this study.

A Generalized Framework of Multifidelity Max-Value Entropy Search Through Joint Entropy.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for expensive black-box optimization problems; however, querying the objective function at every iteration can be a bottleneck that hinders efficient search capabilities. In this regard, multifidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) aims to accelerate BO by incorporating lower-fidelity observations available with a lower sampling cost. In our previous work, we proposed an information-theoretic approach to MFBO, referred to as multifidelity max-value entropy search (MF-MES), which inherits practical effectiveness and computational simplicity of the well-known max-value entropy search (MES) for the single-fidelity BO. However, the applicability of MF-MES is still limited to the case that a single observation is sequentially obtained. In this letter, we generalize MF-MES so that information gain can be evaluated even when multiple observations are simultaneously obtained. This generalization enables MF-MES to address two practical problem settings: synchronous parallelization and trace-aware querying. We show that the acquisition functions for these extensions inherit the simplicity of MF-MES without introducing additional assumptions. We also provide computational techniques for entropy evaluation and posterior sampling in the acquisition functions, which can be commonly used for all variants of MF-MES. The effectiveness of MF-MES is demonstrated using benchmark functions and real-world applications such as materials science data and hyperparameter tuning of machine-learning algorithms.

Estimation of material parameters based on precipitate shape: efficient identification of low-error region with Gaussian process modeling.

In this study, an efficient method for estimating material parameters based on the experimental data of precipitate shape is proposed. First, a computational model that predicts the energetically favorable shape of precipitate when a d-dimensional material parameter (x) is given is developed. Second, the discrepancy (y) between the precipitate shape obtained through the experiment and that predicted using the computational model is calculated. Third, the Gaussian process (GP) is used to model the relation between x and y. Finally, for identifying the "low-error region (LER)" in the material parameter space where y is less than a threshold, we introduce an adaptive sampling strategy, wherein the estimated GP model suggests the subsequent candidate x to be sampled/calculated. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we apply it to the estimation of interface energy and lattice mismatch between MgZn2 ([Formula: see text]) and α-Mg phases in an Mg-based alloy. The result shows that the number of computational calculations of the precipitate shape required for the LER estimation is significantly decreased by using the proposed method.