Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase.

An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can depict individuals' temperature history to rigorously examine this claim. Using a longitudinal dataset representative of China, we construct lifetime temperature exposure unique to each individual based on their birth-dates, birth-locations, and movement history. We show that a 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies cause a 2% decrease in 1 standard deviation (S.D.) of well-being, where most of the impacts are driven by "hotter-than-expected" weather. In turn, while the adverse impacts of future temperature changes wane after accommodating for adaptation, acclimatization is unlikely to keep pace with future temperature increases except in the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating that stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts are still needed even in this less-pessimistic scenario.

Perceptions of the seriousness of major public health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic in seven middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Public perception of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to six other major public health problems (alcoholism and drug use, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, lung cancer and respiratory diseases caused by air pollution and smoking, and water-borne diseases like diarrhea) is unclear. We designed a survey to examine this issue using YouGov's internet panels in seven middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in early 2022. METHODS: Respondents rank ordered the seriousness of the seven health problems using a repeated best-worst question format. Rank-ordered logit models allow comparisons within and across countries and assessment of covariates. RESULTS: In six of the seven countries, respondents perceived other respiratory illnesses to be a more serious problem than COVID-19. Only in Vietnam was COVID-19 ranked above other respiratory illnesses. Alcoholism and drug use was ranked the second most serious problem in the African countries. HIV/AIDS ranked relatively high in all countries. Covariates, particularly a COVID-19 knowledge scale, explained differences within countries; statistics about the pandemic were highly correlated with differences in COVID-19's perceived seriousness. CONCLUSIONS: People in the seven middle-income countries perceived COVID-19 to be serious (on par with HIV/AIDS) but not as serious as other respiratory illnesses. In the African countries, respondents perceived alcoholism and drug use as more serious than COVID-19. Our survey-based approach can be used to quickly understand how the threat of a newly emergent disease, like COVID-19, fits into the larger context of public perceptions of the seriousness of health problems.

We were curious what people in different countries thought about the seriousness of COVID-19 compared to other health problems. We designed a survey, and hired YouGov, a survey research firm, to administer it in seven countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in early 2022. Respondents answered the questions on their computer, tablets, or smart phones. Their answers revealed that in most countries respiratory illnesses were perceived to be a more serious problem than COVID-19. In Africa people felt that alcoholism and drug use were also more serious than COVID-19. These findings are important because they show that people still care about the health problems they were facing before the pandemic, which is useful information for healthcare providers.

Using electricity prices to curb industrial pollution.

In this study, we show that changes in electricity prices in China have significant environmental consequences through its effect on industrial pollution emissions concentrations. To investigate this relationship, we pair a novel dataset of hourly smokestack-level pollutant emissions of industrial plants in Anhui, China with changes in hourly electricity prices. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) regression model, we find that pollution emissions from these plants have an inverse relationship with electricity prices. This relationship is most prominent for firms in the highly competitive and energy-intensive sectors of metals and cement production. On average, we find that a 1% decrease in electricity price leads to around 1%-5.8% increase in sulfur dioxide and particulate matters emissions concentrations. Similarly, we also found impacts on the number of hours in which emissions were observed. These results suggest that electricity prices could be an effective policy tool for managing air pollution - a challenge currently faced by many low- and middle-income countries. More generally, policymakers need to be cognizant that electricity sector-related policies could generate unintended consequences for the environment.

Seeking natural capital projects: Forest fires, haze, and early-life exposure in Indonesia.

Natural capital will be depleted rapidly and excessively if the long-term, offsite impacts of depletion are ignored. By examining the case of tropical forest burning, we illustrate such myopia: Pursuit of short-term economic gains results in air pollution that causes long-term, irreversible health impacts. We integrate longitudinal data on prenatal exposure to the 1997 Indonesian forest fires with child nutritional outcomes and find that mean exposure to air pollution during the prenatal stage is associated with a half-SD decrease in height-for-age z score at age 17, which is robust to several statistical checks. Because adult height is associated with income, this implies a loss of 4% of average monthly wages for approximately one million Indonesian workers born during this period. To put these human capital losses in the context of policy making, we conduct social cost-benefit analyses of oil palm plantations under different scenarios for clearing land and controlling fires. We find that clearing for oil palm plantations using mechanical methods generates higher social net benefits compared with clearing using fires. Oil palm producers, however, would be unwilling to bear the higher private costs of mechanical clearing. Therefore, we need more effective fire bans, fire suppression, and moratoriums on oil palm in Indonesia to protect natural and human capital, and increase social welfare.

Recency and projection biases in air quality valuation by Chinese residents.

We combine survey responses to subjective well-being (SWB) questions with air pollution data to recover Chinese residents' valuation of air quality improvements. Motivated by theoretical models of 'projection bias' and 'recency bias', we posit that one's SWB (and valuation) is affected disproportionately by more recent experiences with air pollution, even though long-term air pollution is more detrimental to one's actual well-being. Towards this end, we find that valuation for a unit improvement in PM2.5 is twice as large when air quality on the day of survey is used as the explanatory variable compared to air quality averaged over a year. Our findings have far-reaching research and policy implications as they call into question the appropriate temporal scale of air quality conditions when conducting valuation studies or policy evaluations. Furthermore, our results imply that policymakers could conceivably exploit this behavioral bias to introduce more stringent air quality management policies when air quality is extremely poor.