Current state of the global operational aerosol multi-model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP).

Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi-model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP-MME over 2012-2017, with a focus on June 2016-May 2017. Evaluated with ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP-MME AOD consensus remains the overall top-scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine- and coarse-mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP-MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP-MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP-MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP-MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012-2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine-mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse-mode AOD is found overall for this time period.

Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative.

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Dust Vortex in the Taklimakan Desert by Himawari-8 High Frequency and Resolution Observation.

The Taklimakan Desert is known to be one of the world's major sources of aeolian dust particles. Continuous images with 10-min temporal and 2-km spatial resolutions from a new-generation geostationary meteorological satellite captured the lifecycle (generation, evolution and outflow) of a previously unrecognized type of Taklimakan dust storm. The dust storm showed an anti-clockwise spiral structure and a clear core and behaved like a "dust vortex". From image analysis, the horizontal scale and temporal lifetime of the dust vortex were estimated to be 600 km and 36 hours, respectively. We found that a strong pressure trough (cut-off low), along with a cold air mass located on the northwestern side of the Taklimakan Desert and the high mountains surrounding the Taklimakan Desert, played important roles in the formation and evolution of the dust vortex.

Use of a size-resolved 1-D resuspension scheme to evaluate resuspended radioactive material associated with mineral dust particles from the ground surface.

A size-resolved, one-dimensional resuspension scheme for soil particles from the ground surface is proposed to evaluate the concentration of radioactivity in the atmosphere due to the secondary emission of radioactive material. The particle size distributions of radioactive particles at a sampling point were measured and compared with the results evaluated by the scheme using four different soil textures: sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, and silty loam. For sandy loam and silty loam, the results were in good agreement with the size-resolved atmospheric radioactivity concentrations observed at a school ground in Tsushima District, Namie Town, Fukushima, which was heavily contaminated after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011. Though various assumptions were incorporated into both the scheme and evaluation conditions, this study shows that the proposed scheme can be applied to evaluate secondary emissions caused by aeolian resuspension of radioactive materials associated with mineral dust particles from the ground surface. The results underscore the importance of taking soil texture into account when evaluating the concentrations of resuspended, size-resolved atmospheric radioactivity.