Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China.

The current study examines the long-run effects of climatic factors on wheat production in China's top three wheat-producing provinces (Hebei, Henan, and Shandong). The data set consists of observations from 1992 to 2020 on which several techniques, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimators, and Granger causality, are applied. The results reveal that climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, negatively influenced wheat production in Henan Province. This means that Henan Province is more vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, it is observed that climatic conditions (via temperature and rainfall) positively contributed to wheat production in Hebei Province. Moreover, temperature negatively influenced wheat production in Shandong Province, while rainfall contributed positively to wheat production. Further, the results of Granger causality reveal that climatic factors and other determinants significantly influenced wheat production in the selected provinces.

The Impact of Technological Progress and Climate Change on Food Crop Production: Evidence from Sichuan-China.

Agriculture is an integral sector in China mandated to feed over 1.3 billion of its people and provide essential inputs for many industries. Sichuan, a central grain-producing province in Southwest China, is a significant supplier of cereals in the country. Yet, it is likely to be threatened by yield damages induced by climate change. Therefore, this study examines the effects of technological progress (via fertilizers usage and mechanization) and climatic changes (via temperature and precipitation) on the productivity of main food crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa), wheat (Triticum aestivum), and maize (Zea mays) in Sichuan province. We employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) model to analyze Sichuan provincial data from 1980 to 2018. Our findings show a positive nexus between fertilizers use and yields of main food crops. Only rice and maize yields are significantly improved by mechanization. Increased average temperature reduces rice and wheat yields significantly. Rainfall is unlikely to have a significant impact on agricultural production. The study suggests that the Chinese government should consider revising its strategies and policies to reduce the impact of climate change on food crop production and increase farmers' adaptive ability.

Modeling the Impact of Climatological Factors and Technological Revolution on Soybean Yield: Evidence from 13-Major Provinces of China.

In recent years, the changing climate has become a major global concern, and it poses a higher threat to the agricultural sector around the world. Consequently, this study examines the impact of changing climate and technological progress on soybean yield in the 13 major provinces of China, and considers the role of agricultural credit, farming size, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery from 2000 to 2020. Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are applied to assess the long-run effect, while Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) causality test is used to explore the short-run causalities among the studied variables. The results revealed that an increase in the annual mean temperature negatively and significantly affects soybean yield, while precipitation expressively helps augment soybean yield. Furthermore, technological factors such as chemical fertilizers accelerate soybean yield significantly, whereas pesticides negatively influence soybean yield. In addition, farming size, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery contribute remarkably to soybean yield. The causality results endorse that chemical fertilizers, pesticides used, agricultural credit, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery have bidirectional causality links with soybean yield. This study suggests several fruitful policy implications for sustainable soybean production in China.