A prognostic risk score for development and spread of chronic pain.

Chronic pain is a complex condition influenced by a combination of biological, psychological and social factors. Using data from the UK Biobank (n = 493,211), we showed that pain spreads from proximal to distal sites and developed a biopsychosocial model that predicted the number of coexisting pain sites. This data-driven model was used to identify a risk score that classified various chronic pain conditions (area under the curve (AUC) 0.70-0.88) and pain-related medical conditions (AUC 0.67-0.86). In longitudinal analyses, the risk score predicted the development of widespread chronic pain, the spreading of chronic pain across body sites and high-impact pain about 9 years later (AUC 0.68-0.78). Key risk factors included sleeplessness, feeling 'fed-up', tiredness, stressful life events and a body mass index >30. A simplified version of this score, named the risk of pain spreading, obtained similar predictive performance based on six simple questions with binarized answers. The risk of pain spreading was then validated in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort (n = 5,525) and the PREVENT-AD cohort (n = 178), obtaining comparable predictive performance. Our findings show that chronic pain conditions can be predicted from a common set of biopsychosocial factors, which can aid in tailoring research protocols, optimizing patient randomization in clinical trials and improving pain management.

Chronic disease clusters are associated with prolonged, bothersome, and multisite musculoskeletal pain: a population-based study on Northern Finns.

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases often accumulate with musculoskeletal (MSK) pain. However, less evidence is available on idiosyncratic patterns of chronic diseases and their relationships with the severity of MSK pain in general MSK pain populations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Questionnaire-based data on physician-diagnosed chronic diseases, MSK pain and its dimensions (frequency, intensity, bothersomeness, and the number of pain sites), and confounders were collected from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 at the age of 46. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to identify chronic disease clusters among individuals who reported any MSK pain within the previous year (n = 6105). The associations between chronic disease clusters, pain dimensions, and severe MSK pain, which was defined as prolonged (over 30 d within the preceding year), bothersome (Numerical Rating Scale >5), and multisite (two or more pain sites) pain, were analyzed using logistic regression and general linear regression models, adjusted for sex and educational level (n for the full sample = 4768). RESULTS: LCA resulted in three clusters: Metabolic (10.8% of the full sample), Psychiatric (2.9%), and Relatively Healthy (86.3%). Compared to the Relatively Healthy cluster, the Metabolic and Psychiatric clusters had higher odds for daily pain and higher mean pain intensity, bothersomeness, and the number of pain sites. Similarly, the odds for severe MSK pain were up to 75% (95% confidence interval: 44%-113%) and 155% (81%-259%) higher in the Metabolic and Psychiatric clusters, respectively, after adjustments for sex and educational level. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct patterns of chronic disease accumulation can be identified in the general MSK pain population. It seems that mental and metabolic health are at interplay with severe MSK pain. These findings suggest a potential need to screen for psychiatric and metabolic entities of health when treating working-aged people with MSK pain.Key messagesThis large study on middle-aged people with musculoskeletal pain aimed to examine the idiosyncratic patterns of chronic diseases and their relationships with the severity of musculoskeletal pain. Latent class cluster analysis identified three chronic disease clusters: Psychiatric, Metabolic, and Relatively Healthy. People with accumulated mental (Psychiatric cluster) or metabolic diseases (Metabolic cluster) experienced more severe pain than people who were relatively healthy (Relatively Healthy cluster). These findings suggest a potential need to screen for psychiatric and metabolic entities of health when treating working-aged people with MSK pain.

Eveningness is Associated With Persistent Multisite Musculoskeletal Pain: A 15-Year Follow-up Study of Northern Finns.

Chronotype, a phenotype representing a person's 24-hour circadian rhythm, has been increasingly acknowledged as playing a role in musculoskeletal (MSK) pain. Most prior research on chronotype and MSK pain have been based on cross-sectional data, and no study has explored multisite MSK pain (2 or more pain locations) as the outcome. We drew the study sample from the 31- and 46-year data collections (baseline and follow-up, respectively) of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 and collected self-reported data on chronotype at follow-up (morning [M]-type, intermediate [I]-type, and evening [E]-type) and longitudinal multisite MSK pain trajectories (n = 3,294). Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in multisite MSK pain trajectories between the chronotypes. We conducted additional sensitivity analyses that 1) accounted for several confounders, and 2) examined the potential moderating role of sex, mental distress, and sleep disturbance status in the chronotype-multisite MSK pain associations. The E-types had two-and-a-half-times higher odds of multisite MSK pain at baseline and follow-up (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.84-3.32) than the M-types. Having severe mental distress or poor sleep at baseline and follow-up, or sex did not change the strength of this association. Our examination of this longitudinal birth cohort study suggested that evening types, in comparison to morning types, are more likely to experience multisite MSK pain between ages 31 and 46 years. Chronotype should be recognized as a predictor of multisite pain and thus taken into account in the evaluation of a patient's risk for multisite pain. PERSPECTIVE: This longitudinal study shows that evening types, compared to morning types, have higher odds of experiencing multisite MSK pain between ages 31 and 46 years. Chronotype should be considered while evaluating MSK patient's risk for persistent multisite pain symptoms.