Monsoon climate controls metal loading in global hotspot region of transboundary air pollution.

Eastern Asia is a major source of global air pollution. The distribution and intensity of these emissions are becoming well characterized, but their impact on the earth surface considering regional hydroclimatological settings has yet to be quantified. Here we show high-resolution spatiotemporal trace metal distributions of precipitation samples collected throughout the Japanese archipelago in 2013, when the world's coal consumption was the greatest, to depict the mass transportation and deposition of pollution. The results show that metals emitted through coal combustion transported from the continent via prevailing wind were intensively deposited along the western coast of the archipelago during winter due to heavy snowing, resulting in lead (Pb) concentration of precipitations exceed the critical level (> 10 µg l-1). About 1497 tons of Pb of continental origin loaded through wet deposition accounted for over ca. 87% of the total annual flux in 2013, which constituted ca. 18.5% of the total emissions from China in 2012. This study presents the first detailed picture of monsoon climate-controlled atmospheric metal transportation and loading in the hotspot region after the phase-out of leaded gasoline in the twentieth century. The dataset can serve as a base for evaluating the effect of countermeasures implemented recent year.

Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections.

Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or -) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.

Seasonal variability of stable isotopes in precipitation and spring water around Mt Kimpo, Kumamoto, southwestern Japan.

Stable isotopes in precipitation and spring water were observed in a low mountain region, because seasonal variability in isotope altitude and amount effects based on their simultaneous observations in low latitude area have not been studied so much. Seasonal variability in spatial averages of monthly δ18O and d-excess in precipitation ranged from -11.96 to -5.16 ‰ and from 8.0 to 24.2 ‰, respectively, while those in spring water ranged from -7.64 to -7.18 ‰ and from 11.0 to 13.6 ‰. The seasonal variability in spatial average of monthly δ18O in precipitation was much wider than in spring water. Monthly isotopic composition in spring water was mostly plotted along the local meteoric water lines for precipitation in warm months, suggesting that precipitation in warm months is the main source of spring water. Annual isotope altitude effects in precipitation (-0.12 ‰/100 m) and spring water (-0.13 ‰/100 m) were almost the same, and monthly isotope amount effects for cold months (-7.9 to -0.9 ‰/100 mm) were relatively higher than those for the warm months (-12.0 to -9.6 ‰/100 mm). The isotope amount effect at each sampling sites appeared using only the data in the warm months without extreme weather.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years.

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties.

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Spatial analysis of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan based on an intensive observation period throughout 2013.

Spatial distribution of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation (δ(18)O, δ(2)H) was observed at 56 sites across Japan throughout 2013. Annual mean δ(18)O values showed a strong latitude effect, from -12.4 ‰ in the north to -5.1 ‰ in the south. Annual mean d-excess values ranged from 8 to 21 ‰, and values on the Sea of Japan side in Northern and Eastern Japan were relatively higher than those on the Pacific Ocean side. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) and isotope effects were based on the annual mean values from all sites across Japan as divided into distinct regions: the Sea of Japan side to the Pacific Ocean side and Northeastern to Southwestern Japan. Slopes and intercepts of LMWL ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and 9.8 to 13.0, respectively. Slopes for latitude, altitude, and temperature effects ranged from -0.27 to -0.48 ‰/°N, -0.0034 to -0.0053 ‰/m, and 0.36 to 0.46 ‰/°C, respectively, with statistically significance at the 99 % level. However, there was no precipitation amount effect. From the result of a multiple regression analysis, the empirical formula of annual mean δ(18)O in precipitation from latitude and altitude for all sites across Japan was determined to be δ(18) O = -0.348 (LAT) - 0.00307 (ALT) + 4.29 (R(2) = 0.59). Slopes for latitude and altitude ranged from - 0.28 to - 0.51, and - 0.0019 to - 0.0045, respectively. Even though site distribution was uneven, these equations are the first trial estimation for annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan. Further research performed on the monthly basis is required to elucidate factors controlling the spatiotemporal variability of stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan.

Verification of the isotopic composition of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model over Japan.

The isotopic composition (δ(18)O and δ(2)H) of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 10, 30 and 50 km was compared with observations at 56 sites over Japan in 2013. All simulations produced reasonable spatio-temporal variations in δ(18)O in precipitation over Japan, except in January. In January, simulated δ(18)O values in precipitation were higher than observed values on the Pacific side of Japan, especially during an explosively developing extratropical cyclone event. This caused a parameterisation of precipitation formulation about the large fraction of precipitated water to liquid detrained water in the lower troposphere. As a result, most water vapour that transported from the Sea of Japan precipitated on the Sea of Japan side. The isotopic composition of precipitation was a useful verification tool for the parameterisation of precipitation formulation as well as large-scale moisture transport processes in the regional isotope circulation model.