Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Cerebral microbleeds and stroke risk after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1·34 years [IQR 0·19-2·44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1·35 (95% CI 1·20-1·50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2·45 (1·82-3·29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1·23 (1·08-1·40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4·55 [95% CI 3·08-6·72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1·47 [1·19-1·80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5·52 [3·36-9·05] vs 1·43 [1·07-1·91]; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8·61 [4·69-15·81] vs 1·86 [1·23-1·82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION: In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association.

Elevations in Tissue Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery Signal Are Related to Good Functional Outcome after Thrombolytic Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Early elevations in the parenchymal signal intensity on T2-weighted images, including fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences, within the ischemic territory are considered as a marker of successful recanalization following thrombolytic treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess whether quantitatively determined FLAIR hyperintensity increases could be predictive of improved functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: Patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis for proximal anterior circulation strokes were included in the study. FLAIR hyperintensity ratio was determined on magnetic resonance imaging obtained within 72 hours of symptom onset. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine predictors of good functional outcome at 90 days. RESULTS: The study population was composed of 65 patients. The median (interquartile range) FLAIR hyperintensity ratio was significantly higher among patients with good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≤ 3 at day 90, 1.4 [1.2-1.7] versus 1.2 [1.1-1.4], P = .005). Patients with a FLAIR hyperintensity ratio of 1.3 or higher were 4.4 (95% confidence interval 1.6-12.7) times more likely to be independent functionally at the end of 3 months. Higher admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and age, together with lower FLAIR hyperintensity ratio (P = .006), were found to be significantly and independently related to unfavorable outcome at 90-day follow-up in multivariate analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a rise in FLAIR hyperintensity signal within the ischemic tissue is suggestive of favorable outcome in patients undergoing intravenous thrombolysis. This tissue marker of favorable outcome is irrespective of other parameters that are crucial in the prognosis of ischemic stroke, such as age and stroke severity.

Diagnostic value of "dysphagia limit" for neurogenic dysphagia: 17 years of experience in 1278 adults.

OBJECTIVE: Neurogenic dysphagia (ND) is a prevalent condition that accounts for significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. Screening and follow-up are critical for early diagnosis and management which can mitigate its complications and be cost-saving. The aims of this study are to provide a comprehensive investigation of the dysphagia limit (DL) in a large diverse cohort and to provide a longitudinal assessment of dysphagia in a subset of subjects. METHODS: We developed a quantitative and noninvasive method for objective assessment of dysphagia by using laryngeal sensor and submental electromyography. DL is the volume at which second or more swallows become necessary to swallow the whole amount of bolus. This study represents 17 years experience with the DL approach in assessing ND in a cohort of 1278 adult subjects consisting of 292 healthy controls, 784 patients with dysphagia, and 202 patients without dysphagia. A total of 192 of all patients were also reevaluated longitudinally over a period of 1-19 months. RESULTS: DL has 92% sensitivity, 91% specificity, 94% positive predictive value, and 88% negative predictive value with an accuracy of 0.92. Patients with ALS, stroke, and movement disorders have the highest sensitivity (85-97%) and positive predictive value (90-99%). The clinical severity of dysphagia has significant negative correlation with DL (r=-0.67, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We propose the DL as a reliable, quick, noninvasive, quantitative test to detect and follow both clinical and subclinical dysphagia and it can be performed in an EMG laboratory. SIGNIFICANCE: Our study provides specific quantitative features of DL test that can be readily utilized by the neurologic community and nominates DL as an objective and robust method to evaluate dysphagia in a wide range of neurologic conditions.

Dysfunction of bulbar central pattern generator in ALS patients with dysphagia during sequential deglutition.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate a probable dysfunction of the central pattern generator (CPG) in dysphagic patients with ALS. METHODS: We investigated 58 patients with ALS, 23 patients with PD, and 33 normal subjects. The laryngeal movements and EMG of the submental muscles were recorded during sequential water swallowing (SWS) of 100ml of water. The coordination of SWS and respiration was also studied in some normal cases and ALS patients. RESULTS: Normal subjects could complete the SWS optimally within 10s using 7 swallows, while in dysphagic ALS patients, the total duration and the number of swallows were significantly increased. The novel finding was that the regularity and rhythmicity of the swallowing pattern during SWS was disorganized to irregular and arhythmic pattern in 43% of the ALS patients. The duration and speed of swallowing were the most sensitive parameters for the disturbed oropharyngeal motility during SWS. CONCLUSIONS: The corticobulbar control of swallowing is insufficient in ALS, and the swallowing CPG cannot work very well to produce segmental muscle activation and sequential swallowing. CPG dysfunction can result in irregular and arhythmical sequential swallowing in ALS patients with bulbar plus pseudobulbar types. SIGNIFICANCE: The arhythmical SWS pattern can be considered as a kind of dysfunction of CPG in human ALS cases with dysphagia.