A methodological framework for assessing sea level rise impacts on nitrate loading in coastal agricultural watersheds using SWAT+: A case study of the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina, USA.

This study addresses the urgent need to understand the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems by demonstrating how to use the SWAT+ model to assess the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on agricultural nitrate export in a coastal watershed. Our framework for incorporating SLR in the SWAT+ model includes: (1) reclassifying current land uses to water for areas with elevations below 0.3 m based on SLR projections for mid-century; (2) creating new SLR-influenced land uses, SLR-influenced crop database, and hydrological response units for areas with elevations below 2.4 m; and (3) adjusting SWAT+ parameters for the SLR-influenced areas to simulate the effects of saltwater intrusion on processes such as plant yield and denitrification. We demonstrate this approach in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, a coastal watershed in eastern North Carolina, USA. We calibrated the model for monthly nitrate load at Washington, NC, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.61. Our findings show that SLR substantially alters nitrate delivery to the estuary, with increased nitrate loads observed in all seasons. Higher load increases were noted in winter and spring due to elevated flows, while higher percentage increases occurred in summer and fall, attributed to reduced plant uptake and disrupted nitrogen cycle transformations. Overall, we observed an increase in mean annual nitrate loads from 155,000 kg NO3-N under baseline conditions to 157,000 kg NO3-N under SLR scenarios, confirmed by a statistically significant paired t-test (p = 2.16 × 10-10). This pioneering framework sets the stage for more sophisticated and accurate modeling of SLR impacts in diverse hydrological scenarios, offering a vital tool for hydrological modelers.

Investigating the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina.

Evaluating the forthcoming impacts of climate change is important for formulating efficient and flexible approaches to water resource management. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are primary tools that enable scientists to study both past and potential future climate changes, as well as their impacts on policies and actions. In this work, we quantify the future projected impacts of hydroclimatic extremes on the coastal, risk-prone Tar-Pamlico River basin in North Carolina using GCMs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These models incorporate projected future societal development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) as defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Specifically, we have utilized historical residential expansion data, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Interquartile Range (IQR) method for analyzing extremes from 2024 to 2100. Our findings include: (1) a trend toward wetter conditions is identified with an increase in flood events toward 2100; (2) projected increases in the severity of flood peaks are found, quantified by a rise of 21% compared to the 2000-2020 period; (3) downstream regions are forecast to experience severe droughts up to 2044; and (4) low-lying and coastal regions are found as particularly susceptible to higher flood peaks and more frequent drought events between 2045 and 2100. This work provides valuable insights into the anticipated shifts in natural disaster patterns and supports decision-makers and authorities in promoting adaptive strategies and sustainable policies to address challenges posed by future climate changes in the Tar-Pamlico region and throughout the state of North Carolina, United States.

Evaluating hydrological alterations and recommending minimum flow release from the Ujjani dam to improve the Bhima River ecosystem health.

Numerous anthropogenic activities like the construction of large dams, storages, and barrages changed the watershed characteristics impacting ecosystem health. In this study, the hydrological alterations (HAs) that have occurred in the Bhima River due to the construction of the Ujjani dam were analyzed. The hydraulic analysis is also performed to determine the hydraulic parameter and recommend the lowest flow release from the dam for improving ecosystem health. Fifty-eight years of data starting from the year 1960 to 2018 were gathered at Yadgir station, which is located downstream of the Ujjani dam. The data were divided into pre- and post-construction river flow discharge. To check for the change in the river flow regime for the post-dam construction period, HA was calculated using Flow Health Software (FHS). The results demonstrate that the dam impoundment reduces high flows primarily by storing flood flow for water supply, irrigation, etc. The velocity and depth provided by the environmental design flow for a flow health (FH) score of 0.62 give a very good habitat to fishes. A minimum release of 24.8 m3/s from the dam is recommended. This study will help policymakers mitigate the impacts of degrading ecosystem health of the Bhima River.