Time trends in ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality over three decades (1990-2019) in 20 Western European countries: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To investigate and compare changes in the rates of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019 in 20 high-income Western European countries with similar public health systems and low cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: The 2020 updated version of the Global Burden of Disease database was searched. Variability and differences in IHD incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000) between countries over time, were calculated. A piecewise linear (join point) regression model was used to identify the slopes of these trends and the points in time at which significant changes in the trends occur. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality rates varied widely between countries but decreased for all between 1990 and 2019. The relative change was greater for mortality than for incidence. Ischaemic heart disease incidence rates declined by approximately 36% between 1990 and 2019, while mortality declined by approximately 60%. Breakpoint analysis showed that the largest decreases in incidence and mortality occurred between 1990 and 2009 (-32%, -52%, respectively), with a much slower decrease after that (-5.9%, -17.6%, respectively), and even a slight increase for some countries in recent years. The decline in both incidence and mortality was lower in the Mediterranean European countries compared to the Nordic and Central European regions. CONCLUSIONS: In the Western European countries studied, the decline in age-standardized IHD incidence over three decades was slower than the decline in age-standardized IHD mortality. Decreasing trends of both IHD incidence and mortality has substantially slowed, and for some countries flattened, in more recent years.

Use of Anticoagulants Remains a Significant Threat to Timely Hip Fracture Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fracture remains the biggest single source of morbidity and mortality in the elderly trauma population, and any intervention focused on quality improvement and system efficiency is beneficial for both patients and clinicians. Two of the variables contributory to improving care and efficiency are time to theater and length of stay, with the overall goal being to improve care as reflected within the achievement of best practice tariff. One of the biggest barriers to optimizing these variables is preinjury anticoagulation. METHOD: Building on our previous work with warfarin in this population, we utilized a regional hip fracture collaborative network collecting prospective data through the National Hip Fracture Database with custom fields pertaining to all agents, including novel oral anticoagulants. RESULTS: In all, 1965 hip fracture patients median age 83 years (1639 not anticoagulated) were admitted to the 5 centers over 12 months. Median length of stay was 20.71 days; time to theater 23.09 hours, and the populations (anticoagulated vs control) were evenly matched for injury. Anticoagulated patients were delayed to theater (P ≤ .001), were inpatients for longer (P ≤ .001) and gained less best practice tariff (P ≤ .05). All variables per agent were noted and the impact of each assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the widespread use of newer anticoagulants, popular due to unmonitored reversal and administration, patients stay longer in hospital and wait longer for surgery than nonanticoagulated patients of the same age and injury. Contemporary perioperative practices impact negatively on the ability to perform timely surgery on hip fracture patients. We propose a guideline specific to the management of anticoagulation in the hip fracture population to aid the optimum preparation of patients for theater, achievement of timely surgery, and potentially reduce length of stay.

"Early Trigger" Intravenous Vitamin K: Optimizing Target-Driven Care in Warfarinised Patients With Hip Fracture.

Best practice tariff (BPT) was introduced as a financial incentive model to improve compliance with evidence-based care, such as operation for hip fracture within 36 hours of admission. We previously evaluated the impact of warfarin on patients with hip fracture, revealing significant delay to operation and subsequent loss of revenue. As a result of this, an "early trigger" intravenous vitamin K (IVK) pathway was introduced and the service reaudited a year later. The first cycle was a retrospective audit of all cases with hip fracture against BPT standards over a 32-month period. Subsequent protocol change resulted in all warfarinised cases being given 2 mg IVK in the emergency department prior to blood testing. This protocol was reaudited against the same BPT standards 12 months later. An intention-to-treat approach was used, despite breaches of protocol and other reasons for patients not progressing to theater. The data were analyzed with parametric tools to establish true clinical and statistical impact of the introduction of the protocol. In the first cycle, 80 patients were admitted on warfarin with a mean time to theater of 53.71 hours. Of these patients, 79% breached BPT due to anticoagulation. Twelve months following protocol introduction, 42 patients had a mean time to theater of 37.61 hours. Of these patients, 34% breached BPT due to anticoagulation. These data are both clinically and statistically significant (P < .001). No adverse events occurred. We have shown for the first time that "early-trigger" IVK can reduce delay to theater and maximize tariff payments in warfarinised patients with hip fracture. This is in addition to other established benefits associated with early surgery such as decreasing risk of pressure lesions and pneumonia. It affords high-quality patient-centered care while ensuring trauma units achieve maximal financial reimbursement through pay for improved performance and supports a culture of change behavior.

A Stab in the Dark? Point-of-Care Testing in the Population With Hip Fracture.

Hip fracture incidence rises globally in an aging population who live in an era of financial austerity. Health service providers are under pressure both to optimize care and to increase efficiencies in the management of this vulnerable patient group. One area of inefficiency in perioperative processes is the assessment of deranged clotting profiles secondary to warfarinization and in the monitoring of hemoglobin. Delays are inherent in these processes, threatening patient care and impacting on financial incentivisation of performance. Point-of-care testing, while widespread in other areas of health care, is underutilized in hip fracture management. This work explores the application to hip fracture care of this technology and suggests future direction to investigate its potential benefits.

What does validation of cases in electronic record databases mean? The potential contribution of free text.

Electronic health records are increasingly used for research. The definition of cases or endpoints often relies on the use of coded diagnostic data, using a pre-selected group of codes. Validation of these cases, as 'true' cases of the disease, is crucial. There are, however, ambiguities in what is meant by validation in the context of electronic records. Validation usually implies comparison of a definition against a gold standard of diagnosis and the ability to identify false negatives ('true' cases which were not detected) as well as false positives (detected cases which did not have the condition). We argue that two separate concepts of validation are often conflated in existing studies. Firstly, whether the GP thought the patient was suffering from a particular condition (which we term confirmation or internal validation) and secondly, whether the patient really had the condition (external validation). Few studies have the ability to detect false negatives who have not received a diagnostic code. Natural language processing is likely to open up the use of free text within the electronic record which will facilitate both the validation of the coded diagnosis and searching for false negatives.

Development of a decision support system for diagnosis and grading of brain tumours using in vivo magnetic resonance single voxel spectra.

A computer-based decision support system to assist radiologists in diagnosing and grading brain tumours has been developed by the multi-centre INTERPRET project. Spectra from a database of 1H single-voxel spectra of different types of brain tumours, acquired in vivo from 334 patients at four different centres, are clustered according to their pathology, using automated pattern recognition techniques and the results are presented as a two-dimensional scatterplot using an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). Formal quality control procedures were performed to standardize the performance of the instruments and check each spectrum, and teams of expert neuroradiologists, neurosurgeons, neurologists and neuropathologists clinically validated each case. The prototype decision support system (DSS) successfully classified 89% of the cases in an independent test set of 91 cases of the most frequent tumour types (meningiomas, low-grade gliomas and high-grade malignant tumours--glioblastomas and metastases). It also helps to resolve diagnostic difficulty in borderline cases. When the prototype was tested by radiologists and other clinicians it was favourably received. Results of the preliminary clinical analysis of the added value of using the DSS for brain tumour diagnosis with MRS showed a small but significant improvement over MRI used alone. In the comparison of individual pathologies, PNETs were significantly better diagnosed with the DSS than with MRI alone.