Productivity declines threaten East African soda lakes and the iconic Lesser Flamingo.

Soda lakes are some of the most productive aquatic ecosystems.1 Their alkaline-saline waters sustain unique phytoplankton communities2,3 and provide vital habitats for highly specialized biodiversity including invertebrates, endemic fish species, and Lesser Flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor).1,4 More than three-quarters of Lesser Flamingos inhabit the soda lakes of East Africa5; however, populations are in decline.6 Declines could be attributed to their highly specialized diet of cyanobacteria7 and dependence on a network of soda lake feeding habitats that are highly sensitive to climate fluctuations and catchment degradation.8,9,10,11,12 However, changing habitat availability has not been assessed due to a lack of in situ water quality and hydrology data and the irregular monitoring of these waterbodies.13 Here, we combine satellite Earth observations and Lesser Flamingo abundance observations to quantify spatial and temporal trends in productivity and ecosystem health over multiple decades at 22 soda lakes across East Africa. We found that Lesser Flamingo distributions are best explained by phytoplankton biomass, an indicator of food availability. However, timeseries analyses revealed significant declines in phytoplankton biomass from 1999 to 2022, most likely driven by substantial rises in lake water levels. Declining productivity has reduced the availability of healthy soda lake ecosystems, most notably in equatorial Kenya and northern Tanzania. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of Lesser Flamingos and other soda lake biodiversity in East Africa, particularly with increased rainfall predicted under climate change.14,15,16 Without improved lake monitoring and catchment management practices, soda lake ecosystems could be pushed beyond their environmental tolerances. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Increasing mercury bioaccumulation and biomagnification rates of Nile perch (Lates niloticus L.) in Winam Gulf, Lake Victoria, Kenya.

The Nile perch (Lates niloticus L.) commercial fishery for Lake Victoria in East Africa is an important source of revenue and employment. We focused on shifts in food web structure and total mercury (THg) bioaccumulation and biomagnification in Nile perch, and lower food web items collected from Winam Gulf (Kenya) sampled 24 years apart (1998 and 2022). Stable isotope carbon (δ13C) values were higher in all species from 2022 compared to 1998. Stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values in baseline organisms were lower in 2022 compared to 1998. In Nile perch, δ15N values were correlated with total length, but the δ15N-length regressions were steeper in 1998 compared to 2022 except for one large (158 cm) Nile perch from 1998 with an uncharacteristically low δ15N value. Total Hg concentrations were lower in lower trophic species from 2022 compared to 1998. However, the THg bioaccumulation rate (as a function of fish length) in Nile perch was greater in 2022 compared to 1998 resulting in 24.2 % to 42.4 % higher wet weight dorsal THg concentrations in 2022 Nile perch for market slot size (50 to 85 cm) fish. The contrasting observations of increased THg bioaccumulation with size in 2022 against decreases in the rate of trophic increase with size and lower THg concentrations of lower food web items imply reduced fish growth and potential bioenergetic stressors on Winam Gulf Nile perch. All samples except 1 large Nile perch (139 cm total length collected in 2022) had THg concentrations below the European Union trade limit (500 ng/g wet weight). However, for more vulnerable individuals (women, children and frequent fish eaters), we recommend a decrease in maximum monthly meal consumption for 55-75 cm Nile perch from 16 meals per month calculated for 1998 to a limit of 8 meals per month calculated for 2022.

Analysing detection gaps in acoustic telemetry data to infer differential movement patterns in fish.

A wide array of technologies are available for gaining insight into the movement of wild aquatic animals. Although acoustic telemetry can lack the fine-scale spatial resolution of some satellite tracking technologies, the substantially longer battery life can yield important long-term data on individual behavior and movement for low per-unit cost. Typically, however, receiver arrays are designed to maximize spatial coverage at the cost of positional accuracy leading to potentially longer detection gaps as individuals move out of range between monitored locations. This is particularly true when these technologies are deployed to monitor species in hard-to-access locations.Here, we develop a novel approach to analyzing acoustic telemetry data, using the timing and duration of gaps between animal detections to infer different behaviors. Using the durations between detections at the same and different receiver locations (i.e., detection gaps), we classify behaviors into "restricted" or potential wider "out-of-range" movements synonymous with longer distance dispersal. We apply this method to investigate spatial and temporal segregation of inferred movement patterns in two sympatric species of reef shark within a large, remote, marine protected area (MPA). Response variables were generated using network analysis, and drivers of these movements were identified using generalized linear mixed models and multimodel inference.Species, diel period, and season were significant predictors of "out-of-range" movements. Silvertip sharks were overall more likely to undertake "out-of-range" movements, compared with gray reef sharks, indicating spatial segregation, and corroborating previous stable isotope work between these two species. High individual variability in "out-of-range" movements in both species was also identified.We present a novel gap analysis of telemetry data to help infer differential movement and space use patterns where acoustic coverage is imperfect and other tracking methods are impractical at scale. In remote locations, inference may be the best available tool and this approach shows that acoustic telemetry gap analysis can be used for comparative studies in fish ecology, or combined with other research techniques to better understand functional mechanisms driving behavior.

Social-ecological change in the Omo-Turkana basin: A synthesis of current developments.

This paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impacts of the Gibe III dam and associated large-scale commercial farming in the Omo-Turkana Basin, based on an expert elicitation coupled with a scoping review and the collective knowledge of an multidisciplinary network of researchers with active data-collection programs in the Basin. We use social-ecological systems and political ecology frameworks to assess the impacts of these interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in the Basin, and cascading effects on livelihoods, patterns of migration, and conflict dynamics for the people of the region. A landscape-scale transformation is occurring in which commodities, rather than staple foods for local consumption, are becoming the main output of the region. Mitigation measures initiated by the Ethiopian government-notably resettlement schemes-are not adequately buffering affected communities from food insecurity following disruption to indigenous livelihood systems. Therefore, while benefits are accruing to labor migrants, the costs of development are currently borne primarily by the agro-pastoralist indigenous people of the region. We consider measures that might maximize benefits from the changes underway and mitigate their negative outcomes, such as controlled floods, irrigating fodder crops, food aid, and benefit sharing.