A multiple linear regression approach to the estimation of carboxylic acid ester and lactone alkaline hydrolysis rate constants.

Pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and other organic contaminants often undergo hydrolysis when released into the environment; therefore, measured or estimated hydrolysis rates are needed to assess their environmental persistence. An intuitive multiple linear regression (MLR) approach was used to develop robust QSARs for predicting base-catalyzed rate constants of carboxylic acid esters (CAEs) and lactones. We explored various combinations of independent descriptors, resulting in four primary models (two for lactones and two for CAEs), with a total of 15 and 11 parameters included in the CAE and lactone QSAR models, respectively. The most significant descriptors include pKa, electronegativity, charge density, and steric parameters. Model performance is assessed using Drug Theoretics and Cheminformatics Laboratory's DTC-QSAR tool, demonstrating high accuracy for both internal validation (r2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.41-0.43 for CAEs; r2 = 0.90-0.93 and RMSE = 0.38-0.46 for lactones) and external validation (r2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.43-0.45 for CAEs; r2 = 0.94-0.98 and RMSE = 0.33-0.41 for lactones). The developed models require only low-cost computational resources and have substantially improved performance compared to existing hydrolysis rate prediction models (HYDROWIN and SPARC).

Evaluating the sensitivity of a subsurface multicomponent reactive transport model with respect to transport and reaction parameters.

The input variables for a numerical model of reactive solute transport in groundwater include both transport parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity and infiltration, and reaction parameters that describe the important chemical and biological processes in the system. These parameters are subject to uncertainty due to measurement error and due to the spatial variability of properties in the subsurface environment. This paper compares the relative effects of uncertainty in the transport and reaction parameters on the results of a solute transport model. This question is addressed by comparing the magnitudes of the local sensitivity coefficients for transport and reaction parameters. General sensitivity equations are presented for transport parameters, reaction parameters, and the initial (background) concentrations in the problem domain. Parameter sensitivity coefficients are then calculated for an example problem in which uranium(VI) hydrolysis species are transported through a two-dimensional domain with a spatially variable pattern of surface complexation sites. In this example, the reaction model includes equilibrium speciation reactions and mass transfer-limited non-electrostatic surface complexation reactions. The set of parameters to which the model is most sensitive includes the initial concentration of one of the surface sites, the formation constant (Kf) of one of the surface complexes and the hydraulic conductivity within the reactive zone. For this example problem, the sensitivity analysis demonstrates that transport and reaction parameters are equally important in terms of how their variability affects the model results.