ABSTRACT
If two haplotypes share the same alleles for an extended gene tract, these haplotypes are likely to derive identical-by-descent from a recent common ancestor. Identity-by-descent segment lengths are correlated via unobserved tree and recombination processes, which commonly presents challenges to the derivation of theoretical results in population genetics. Under interpretable regularity conditions, we show that the proportion of detectable identity-by-descent segments at a locus is normally distributed for large sample size and large scaled population size. We use efficient and exact simulations to study the distributional behavior of the detectable identity-by-descent rate in finite samples. One consequence of non-normality in finite samples is that genome-wide scans based on identity-by-descent rates may be subject to anti-conservative Type 1 error control. Highlights: We show the asymptotic normality of the identity-by-descent rate, a mean of correlated binary random variables that arises in population genetics studies.We describe an efficient algorithm capable of simulating long identity-by-descent segments around a locus in large sample sizes.In enormous simulation studies, we use this algorithm to characterize the distributional properties of the identity-by-descent rate.In finite samples, we reject the null hypothesis of normality more often than the nominal significance level, indicating that genome-wide scans based on identity-by-descent rates may be anti-conservative.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. METHODS: We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis. RESULTS: We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.
