A Simulation Framework for Modeling the Within-Patient Evolutionary Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

The global impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to considerable interest in detecting novel beneficial mutations and other genomic changes that may signal the development of variants of concern (VOCs). The ability to accurately detect these changes within individual patient samples is important in enabling early detection of VOCs. Such genomic scans for rarely acting positive selection are best performed via comparison of empirical data with simulated data wherein commonly acting evolutionary factors, including mutation and recombination, reproductive and infection dynamics, and purifying and background selection, can be carefully accounted for and parameterized. Although there has been work to quantify these factors in SARS-CoV-2, they have yet to be integrated into a baseline model describing intrahost evolutionary dynamics. To construct such a baseline model, we develop a simulation framework that enables one to establish expectations for underlying levels and patterns of patient-level variation. By varying eight key parameters, we evaluated 12,096 different model-parameter combinations and compared them with existing empirical data. Of these, 592 models (∼5%) were plausible based on the resulting mean expected number of segregating variants. These plausible models shared several commonalities shedding light on intrahost SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics: severe infection bottlenecks, low levels of reproductive skew, and a distribution of fitness effects skewed toward strongly deleterious mutations. We also describe important areas of model uncertainty and highlight additional sequence data that may help to further refine a baseline model. This study lays the groundwork for the improved analysis of existing and future SARS-CoV-2 within-patient data.

Multiple mechanisms contribute to isolation by environment in the redheaded pine sawfly, Neodiprion lecontei.

Isolation by environment (IBE) is a population genomic pattern that arises when ecological barriers reduce gene flow between populations. Although current evidence suggests IBE is common in nature, few studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms that generate IBE patterns. In this study, we evaluate five proposed mechanisms of IBE (natural selection against immigrants, sexual selection against immigrants, selection against hybrids, biased dispersal, and environment-based phenological differences) that may give rise to host-associated differentiation within a sympatric population of the redheaded pine sawfly, Neodiprion lecontei, a species for which IBE has previously been detected. We first characterize the three pine species used by N. lecontei at the site, finding morphological and chemical differences among the hosts that could generate divergent selection on sawfly host-use traits. Next, using morphometrics and ddRAD sequencing, we detect modest phenotypic and genetic differentiation among sawflies originating from different pines that is consistent with recent, in situ divergence. Finally, via a series of laboratory assays-including assessments of larval performance on different hosts, adult mate and host preferences, hybrid fitness, and adult eclosion timing-we find evidence that multiple mechanisms contribute to IBE in N. lecontei. Overall, our results suggest IBE can emerge quickly, possibly due to multiple mechanisms acting in concert to reduce migration between different environments.

A simulation framework for modeling the within-patient evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

The global impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to considerable interest in detecting novel beneficial mutations and other genomic changes that may signal the development of variants of concern (VOCs). The ability to accurately detect these changes within individual patient samples is important in enabling early detection of VOCs. Such genomic scans for positive selection are best performed via comparison of empirical data to simulated data wherein evolutionary factors, including mutation and recombination rates, reproductive and infection dynamics, and purifying and background selection, can be carefully accounted for and parameterized. While there has been work to quantify these factors in SARS-CoV-2, they have yet to be integrated into a baseline model describing intra-host evolutionary dynamics. To construct such a baseline model, we develop a simulation framework that enables one to establish expectations for underlying levels and patterns of patient-level variation. By varying eight key parameters, we evaluated 12,096 different model-parameter combinations and compared them to existing empirical data. Of these, 592 models (~5%) were plausible based on the resulting mean expected number of segregating variants. These plausible models shared several commonalities shedding light on intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics: severe infection bottlenecks, low levels of reproductive skew, and a distribution of fitness effects skewed towards strongly deleterious mutations. We also describe important areas of model uncertainty and highlight additional sequence data that may help to further refine a baseline model. This study lays the groundwork for the improved analysis of existing and future SARS-CoV-2 within-patient data.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples.

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

Developing an Appropriate Evolutionary Baseline Model for the Study of Human Cytomegalovirus.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) represents a major threat to human health, contributing to both birth defects in neonates as well as organ transplant failure and opportunistic infections in immunocompromised individuals. HCMV exhibits considerable interhost and intrahost diversity, which likely influences the pathogenicity of the virus. Therefore, understanding the relative contributions of various evolutionary forces in shaping patterns of variation is of critical importance both mechanistically and clinically. Herein, we present the individual components of an evolutionary baseline model for HCMV, with a particular focus on congenital infections for the sake of illustration-including mutation and recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge of each. By building this baseline model, researchers will be able to better describe the range of possible evolutionary scenarios contributing to observed variation as well as improve power and reduce false-positive rates when scanning for adaptive mutations in the HCMV genome.

Body size as a magic trait in two plant-feeding insect species.

When gene flow accompanies speciation, recombination can decouple divergently selected loci and loci conferring reproductive isolation. This barrier to sympatric divergence disappears when assortative mating and disruptive selection involve the same "magic" trait. Although magic traits could be widespread, the relative importance of different types of magic traits to speciation remains unclear. Because body size frequently contributes to host adaptation and assortative mating in plant-feeding insects, we evaluated several magic trait predictions for this trait in a pair of sympatric Neodiprion sawfly species adapted to different pine hosts. A large morphological dataset revealed that sawfly adults from populations and species that use thicker-needled pines are consistently larger than those that use thinner-needled pines. Fitness data from recombinant backcross females revealed that egg size is under divergent selection between the preferred pines. Lastly, mating assays revealed strong size-assortative mating within and between species in three different crosses, with the strongest prezygotic isolation between populations that have the greatest interspecific size differences. Together, our data support body size as a magic trait in pine sawflies and possibly many other plant-feeding insects. Our work also demonstrates how intraspecific variation in morphology and ecology can cause geographic variation in the strength of prezygotic isolation.

Gregariousness does not vary with geography, developmental stage, or group relatedness in feeding redheaded pine sawfly larvae.

Aggregations are widespread across the animal kingdom, yet the underlying proximate and ultimate causes are still largely unknown. An ideal system to investigate this simple, social behavior is the pine sawfly genus Neodiprion, which is experimentally tractable and exhibits interspecific variation in larval gregariousness. To assess intraspecific variation in this trait, we characterized aggregative tendency within a single widespread species, the redheaded pine sawfly (N. lecontei). To do so, we developed a quantitative assay in which we measured interindividual distances over a 90-min video. This assay revealed minimal behavioral differences: (1) between early-feeding and late-feeding larval instars, (2) among larvae derived from different latitudes, and (3) between groups composed of kin and those composed of nonkin. Together, these results suggest that, during the larval feeding period, the benefits individuals derive from aggregating outweigh the costs and that this cost-to-benefit ratio does not vary dramatically across space (geography) or ontogeny (developmental stage). In contrast to the feeding larvae, our assay revealed a striking reduction in gregariousness following the final larval molt in N. lecontei. We also found some intriguing interspecific variation: While N. lecontei and N. maurus feeding larvae exhibit significant aggregative tendencies, feeding N. compar larvae do not aggregate at all. These results set the stage for future work investigating the proximate and ultimate mechanisms underlying developmental and interspecific variation in larval gregariousness across Neodiprion.

Evaluation of Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis as a Control Agent for Adult Anopheles gambiae.

Unlike the application of Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) for the control of larval mosquitoes, studies of its effects on adults, for its possible use in attractive toxic sugar baits, have resulted in conflicting results. Five species have shown a decrease in adult survival due to Bti ingestion, whereas adults of Anopheles arabiensis have not. We sought to determine if ingestion of Bti by adults of Anopheles gambiae, a sibling species of An. arabiensis, increases their mortality. Laboratory-reared adults were provided continuously from emergence with water only, a sucrose solution, or a Bti suspension in sucrose solution. After 3 days, the Bti suspension was replaced with untainted sucrose solution. The mosquitoes with only water were all dead by day 3. The survivorships of those in the sucrose and sucrose-Bti treatments were insignificantly different, both with an LT50 (Lethal Time, time until 50% of individuals died) of 25 days. The results support the conclusion that adult survivorship of An. gambiae-complex members is unaffected by the ingestion of Bti in sugar meals.

Olfactory basis of floral preference of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) among common African plants.

Mosquitoes of both sexes feed on plants to obtain sugar. Nocturnal species probably locate the plants primarily by their volatile semiochemicals that also form the basis for the mosquitoes' innate plant-species preferences. To evaluate these olfactory preferences quantitatively, we used a two-choice wind-tunnel olfactometer to measure the upwind orientation of Anopheles gambiae Giles, an important vector of malaria in equatorial Africa, toward odor plumes produced by nine plant species common where this mosquito occurs. These plants are reported to induce feeding behaviors in An. gambiae and to produce floral or extrafloral nectar. Results presented here demonstrated that the volatiles of S. didymobotrya, P. hysterophorus, S. occidentalis, and L. camara, in descending order of numbers of mosquitoes responding, were all attractive, compared to a control plant species, whereas D. stramonium, R. communis, S. bicapsularis, T. stans, and T. diversifolia were not. As expected, chromatographic analysis of the headspace of attractive plants whose volatiles were captured by stir-bar sorptive extraction revealed a wide range of compounds, primarily terpenoids. Once their bioactivity and attractiveness for An. gambiae, alone and in blends, has been firmly established, some of these semiochemicals may have applications in population sampling and control.