Relaxed random walk model coupled with ecological niche modeling unravel the dispersal dynamics of a Neotropical savanna tree species in the deeper Quaternary.

Understanding the dispersal routes of Neotropical savanna tree species is an essential step to unravel the effects of past climate change on genetic patterns, species distribution and population demography. Here we reconstruct the demographic history and dispersal dynamics of the Neotropical savanna tree species Tabebuia aurea to understand the effects of Quaternary climate change on its current spatial patterns of genetic diversity. We sampled 285 individuals from 21 populations throughout Brazilian savannas and sequenced all individuals for three chloroplast intergenic spacers and ITS nrDNA. We analyzed data using a multi-model inference framework by coupling the relaxed random walk model (RRW), ecological niche modeling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. The most recent common ancestor of T. aurea lineages dated from ~4.0 ± 2.5 Ma. T. aurea lineages cyclically dispersed from the West toward the Central-West Brazil, and from the Southeast toward the East and Northeast Brazil, following the paleodistribution dynamics shown by the ENMs through the last glacial cycle. A historical refugium through time may have allowed dispersal of lineages among populations of Central Brazil, overlapping with population expansion during interglacial periods and the diversification of new lineages. Range and population expansion through the Quaternary were, respectively, the most frequent prediction from ENMs and the most likely demographic scenario from coalescent simulations. Consistent phylogeographic patterns among multiple modeling inferences indicate a promising approach, allowing us to understand how cyclical climate changes through the Quaternary drove complex population dynamics and the current patterns of species distribution and genetic diversity.

Multi-model inference in comparative phylogeography: an integrative approach based on multiple lines of evidence.

Comparative phylogeography has its roots in classical biogeography and, historically, relies on a pattern-based approach. Here, we present a model-based framework for comparative phylogeography. Our framework was initially developed for statistical phylogeography based on a multi-model inference approach, by coupling ecological niche modeling, coalescent simulation and direct spatio-temporal reconstruction of lineage diffusion using a relaxed random walk model. This multi-model inference framework is particularly useful to investigate the complex dynamics and current patterns in genetic diversity in response to processes operating on multiple taxonomic levels in comparative phylogeography. In addition, because of the lack, or incompleteness of fossil record, the understanding of the role of biogeographical events (vicariance and dispersal routes) in most regions worldwide is barely known. Thus, we believe that the expansion of that framework for multiple species under a comparative approach may give clues on genetic legacies in response to Quaternary climate changes and other biogeographical processes.

The potential impact of white-nose syndrome on the conservation status of north american bats.

White-Nose syndrome (WNS) is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.