Family outcomes in alternative response: A multilevel analysis of recurrence.

Alternative response (AR) is preventative, family-centered, strengths-based approach within child protective services (CPS). When AR is offered it typically creates a two-track system where low- to moderate-risk families are not subjected to a traditional, fact-finding response that concludes with a determination of child abuse/neglect. One area that continues to concern child welfare administrators and researchers is recurrence, or when a family returns to CPS. Yet, it is unclear whether AR families have the same or different predictors of recurrence than TR families. Using a multilevel analytic approach, the present study followed 17,741 families in one mid-Atlantic state for 18-months post-response to determine what child, family, and county-level predicted a reported re-investigation and a substantiated re-investigation. We found few differences in predictors at the child and family level but found distinct differences at the county level for AR families. Recommendations are provided for policy, practice, and research, including a suggestion for further inquiry on what makes an optimal AR track.

The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature.

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking.

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO2 and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.

The dynamic land-cover of the Altai Mountains: Perspectives based on past and current environmental and biodiversity changes.

We present climate-dependent changes in the high-mountain forest ecotone, old-growth forests, alpine phytocenoses, and deglaciated forelands in the Aktru glacial basin (Altai Republic, Russia). A number of independent sources (variations in upper treeline altitude, dendrochronological data, analysis of lacustrine sediments and botanical and geographical studies linked with the dynamics of glacial-dammed lakes in the Chuya and Kurai intermountain depressions) suggest Holocene temperatures reached about 4 °C higher than today. Unlike the European Alps, glaciers in the continental Altai Mountains disappeared before forming again. Also, the upper altitudinal limit of mountain forests during the Holocene was greater than in the European Alps. The high variability of mountain ecosystems in southern Siberia suggests their potential instability in a currently changing climate. However, periglacial successions associated with the strong continental climate and glacier retreat represent an area of increasing biodiversity and plant cover. The historical and current sensitivity of the continental mountains to climate variations which exceeds that of the European Alps requires greater understanding, environmental protection, and increased social responsibility for the consequences of anthropogenic contributions to climate change: the isolated Altai areas contribute little to climate changes, but are greatly affected by them.

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity.

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.

Impacts of environmental change on biodiversity and vegetation dynamics in Siberia.

Biological diversity is the basis for, and an indicator of biosphere integrity. Together with climate change, its loss is one of the two most important planetary boundaries. A halt in biodiversity loss is one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Current changes in biodiversity in the vast landmass of Siberia are at an initial stage of inventory, even though the Siberian environment is experiencing rapid climate change, weather extremes and transformation of land use and management. Biodiversity changes affect traditional land use by Indigenous People and multiple ecosystem services with implications for local and national economies. Here we review and analyse a large number of scientific publications, which are little known outside Russia, and we provide insights into Siberian biodiversity issues for the wider international research community. Case studies are presented on biodiversity changes for insect pests, fish, amphibians and reptiles, birds, mammals and steppe vegetation, and we discuss their causes and consequences.

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study.

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Correction to Identification of Quinoline-Based RIP2 Kinase Inhibitors with an Improved Therapeutic Index to the hERG Ion Channel.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1021/acsmedchemlett.8b00344.].

Neighborhood disorder and child behavioral problems among kinship children: Mediated by social support and moderated by race/ethnicity?

BACKGROUND: Children in kinship care may be placed in similar neighborhoods as their birth families, which are predominantly characterized as distressed neighborhoods with high poverty and crime rates, poor-quality housing conditions, and few social resources. Disordered neighborhoods are negatively correlated to social support, but this dynamic may vary by race or ethnicity. However, children's previously established attachment and social bonding may offset the negative effects of distressed neighborhoods on child behavioral health. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relation between neighborhood disorder and children's internalizing and externalizing problems among children in kinship care and tested caregivers' social support as a potential mediator. Moreover, this study examined if race/ethnicity moderated the pathway from neighborhood disorder to social support, and from social support to children's internalizing and externalizing problems. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: This study used NSCAW II wave 3 data for a sample of children in kinship care. METHODS: Univariate, bivariate, and moderated mediation analyses were conducted using STATA 15. RESULTS: Neighborhood disorder was indirectly associated with children's internalizing and externalizing problems through a mediator of social support. No racial/ethnic differences were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Implications for improving social support for kinship caregivers to ameliorate the effects of neighborhood disorder on children's behavioral health are discussed. Implementing effective neighborhood-level interventions could promote positive outcomes for children in kinship care.

Improving dialogue among researchers, local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North.

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.

Discovery of Pyrazolocarboxamides as Potent and Selective Receptor Interacting Protein 2 (RIP2) Kinase Inhibitors.

Herein we report the discovery of pyrazolocarboxamides as novel, potent, and kinase selective inhibitors of receptor interacting protein 2 kinase (RIP2). Fragment based screening and design principles led to the identification of the inhibitor series, and X-ray crystallography was used to inform key structural changes. Through key substitutions about the N1 and C5 N positions on the pyrazole ring significant kinase selectivity and potency were achieved. Bridged bicyclic pyrazolocarboxamide 11 represents a selective and potent inhibitor of RIP2 and will allow for a more detailed investigation of RIP2 inhibition as a therapeutic target for autoinflammatory disorders.

Children and youth in out-of-home care: What can predict an initial change in placement?

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of children placed in out of-home care experience placement disruptions in the United States. Placement instability has deleterious effects on children's well-being. OBJECTIVES: (a) To measure the time-to-initial placement change in different types of settings, including non-relative foster homes, kinship care, residential treatment centers (RTC), group homes and other types of settings; and (b) To identify predictors of the initial placement change. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Data were obtained from the State Automated Child Welfare Information System operated by the child welfare agency in a Mid-Atlantic state. The sample included 4177 children who entered into the foster care and were followed over three years. METHOD: Descriptive, bivariate, and survival Cox regression models were conducted. RESULTS: More than half (53%) of the children had experienced placement change within 3 years. The mean length for an initial change in placement was longer for children in RTC and kinship care compared to children in foster and group homes, and other placements (χ2 = 322.31, p < 0.001). Several factors significantly increased the likelihood of an initial change, including: older children (p < 0.001, HR = 1.01), children with behavioral problems (p < 0.001, HR = 1.26), parental substance abuse (p < 0.05, HR = 1.12), and cases in which the parents voluntarily gave up their parental rights (p < 0.05, HR = 1.12). The type of placement also increased the risk for placement change. CONCLUSIONS: Providing early interventions and services to these children and their families is essential to increase placement stability.

Identification of Quinoline-Based RIP2 Kinase Inhibitors with an Improved Therapeutic Index to the hERG Ion Channel.

RIP2 kinase was recently identified as a therapeutic target for a variety of autoimmune diseases. We have reported previously a selective 4-aminoquinoline-based RIP2 inhibitor GSK583 and demonstrated its effectiveness in blocking downstream NOD2 signaling in cellular models, rodent in vivo models, and human ex vivo disease models. While this tool compound was valuable in validating the biological pathway, it suffered from activity at the hERG ion channel and a poor PK/PD profile thereby limiting progression of this analog. Herein, we detail our efforts to improve both this off-target liability as well as the PK/PD profile of this series of inhibitors through modulation of lipophilicity and strengthening hinge binding ability. These efforts have led to inhibitor 7, which possesses high binding affinity for the ATP pocket of RIP2 (IC50 = 1 nM) and inhibition of downstream cytokine production in human whole blood (IC50 = 10 nM) with reduced hERG activity (14 µM).

Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management.

INTRODUCTION: Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the dearth of illustrative examples that demonstrate how they can be applied within pressing time and resource constraints, while also improving judgements. AIMS AND METHODS: In this paper, we demonstrate how the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation may be deployed to overcome operational challenges while improving the quality of judgements. The protocol was applied to the estimation of 14 future abiotic and biotic events on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Seventy-six participants with varying levels of expertise related to the Great Barrier Reef were recruited and allocated randomly to eight groups. Each participant provided their judgements using the four-step question format of the IDEA protocol ('Investigate', 'Discuss', 'Estimate', 'Aggregate') through remote elicitation. When the events were realised, the participant judgements were scored in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate that the IDEA protocol provides a practical, cost-effective, and repeatable approach to the elicitation of quantitative estimates and uncertainty via remote elicitation. We emphasise that i) the aggregation of diverse individual judgements into pooled group judgments almost always outperformed individuals, and ii) use of a modified Delphi approach helped to remove linguistic ambiguity, and further improved individual and group judgements. Importantly, the protocol encourages review, critical appraisal and replication, each of which is required if judgements are to be used in place of data in a scientific context. The results add to the growing body of literature that demonstrates the merit of using structured elicitation protocols. We urge decision-makers and analysts to use insights and examples to improve the evidence base of expert judgement in natural resource management.

Donated chemical probes for open science.

Potent, selective and broadly characterized small molecule modulators of protein function (chemical probes) are powerful research reagents. The pharmaceutical industry has generated many high-quality chemical probes and several of these have been made available to academia. However, probe-associated data and control compounds, such as inactive structurally related molecules and their associated data, are generally not accessible. The lack of data and guidance makes it difficult for researchers to decide which chemical tools to choose. Several pharmaceutical companies (AbbVie, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, MSD, Pfizer, and Takeda) have therefore entered into a pre-competitive collaboration to make available a large number of innovative high-quality probes, including all probe-associated data, control compounds and recommendations on use (https://openscienceprobes.sgc-frankfurt.de/). Here we describe the chemical tools and target-related knowledge that have been made available, and encourage others to join the project.

The role of Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) in the storage, emission and deposition of carbon in lakes and rivers of the River Ob flood plain, western Siberia.

Several studies have reported significant emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG) from beaver dams, suggesting that ponds created by beavers are a net source of CO2 and CH4. However, most evidence come from studies conducted in North America (on Castor canadensis) without a parallel comparison with the Eurasian beaver's (Castor fiber) impacts and a critical consideration of the importance of the carbon deposition in dam sediments. The most abundant population of the Eurasian beaver lives in Russia, notably within the River Ob watershed in Western Siberia which is the second largest floodplain on Earth. Consequently, we assessed the holistic impact of Eurasian beavers on the multiple carbon pools in water and on other related biogeochemical parameters of the Ob's floodplain streams. We compared dammed and flowing streams in a floodplain of the middle course of the river. We found that beavers in western Siberia increase the stream emission of methane by about 15 times by building their dams. This is similar to what has been documented in North America. A new finding from the present study is that Siberian beavers facilitate 1) nutrient recycling by speeding up the nutrient release from particulate organic matter; and 2) carbon sequestration by increasing the amount of dissolved organic carbon. This carbon becomes in part recalcitrant when buried in sediments and is, therefore, removed from the short-term carbon cycle. These new results should be taken into consideration in river management and provide a further reason for the conservation and management of Eurasian Beavers.

Foster Care Reentry: A survival analysis assessing differences across permanency type.

Foster care reentry is an important factor for evaluating the overall success of permanency. Rates of reentry are typically only measured for 12-months and are often evaluated only for children who exit foster care to reunification and not across exit types, also known as 'permanency types'. This study examined the odds of reentry across multiple common permanency types for a cohort of 8107 children who achieved permanency between 2009 and 2013. Overall, 14% of children reentered care within 18-months with an average time to reentry of 6.36 months. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to assess differences in reentry across permanency types (including reunification, relative guardianship and non-relative guardianship). Children who achieved guardianship with kin had the lowest odds of reentry overall, followed by guardianship with non-kin, and reunification with family of origin. Children reunifying against the recommendations of Children and Family Services had the highest odds of reentry. A Cox regression survival analysis was conducted to assess odds of reentry across permanency type while controlling for demographics, services, and other risk factors. In the final model, only permanency type and cumulative risk were found to have a statistically significant impact on odds of reentry.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.