Spatial distribution of inadequate meal frequency and its associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia: Multilevel and spatial analysis.

INTRODUCTION: More than two-third of global child death is occurred due to inappropriate feeding practice that happened during early childhood period. Evidence on meal frequency status among infant and young children at national level can be used to design appropriate interventions to improve the recommended feeding frequency. Therefore, this study was aimed to explore the spatial distribution and identify associated factors of inadequate meal frequency among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was conducted using the 2019 mini Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. A total weighted sample of 1,532 children aged 6-23 months were included. To identify significant factors associated with of inadequate meal frequency, multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted. Variables with p-value < 0.25 from the bi-variable model were exported to multivariable analysis. In the multivariable model, variables with p-value < 0.05 were declared as significantly associated factors and adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with its 95% confidence interval were reported. Multilevel models were compared using deviance and log-likelihood. Spatial analysis tools were utilized to visualize the distribution of inadequate meal frequency. Bernoulli model was fitted using SaTScan V.9.6 to identify most likely clusters and ArcGIS V.10.8 was used to map the hotspot areas. Ordinary least square and geographic weighted regression models were used and compared using information criteria and adjusted-R2. Local coefficients of factors associated with hotspots of inadequate meal frequency were mapped. RESULTS: The prevalence of inadequate meal frequency was 47.03% (95% CI: 44.54%, 49.53%) in Ethiopia. Age of the child, sex of the household head, timely initiation of breastfeeding, current breastfeeding status, number of antenatal care visit, maternal education, and region were significantly associated with inadequate meal frequency. The spatial distribution of inadequate meal frequency was showed significant variation across Ethiopia (Global Moran's I = 0.164, p-value <0.001). A total of 38 significant clusters were detected through SaTScan analysis, from these the 22 primary clusters were located in Somali and Harari. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: The prevalence of inadequate meal frequency was high in Ethiopia and had significant clustering patter. Significant hotspot clusters were located in Somali, northern Afar, Harari, Amhara, Gambela, and eastern South nation nationalities and peoples' region. Therefore, public health interventions which enhance breastfeeding practice, optimal number of antenatal care visits, educational empowerments should target hotspot areas to decrease inadequate meal frequency practice.

Prevalence of Hepatitis B virus infection and its determinants among pregnant women in East Africa: Systematic review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the major public health problems globally and needs an urgent response. It is one of the most responsible causes of mortality among the five hepatitis viruses, and it affects almost every class of individuals. Different studies were conducted on the prevalence of HBV among pregnant women in East African countries, but none of them showed the pooled prevalence of HBV among the pregnant women. Thus, the main objective of this study was to determine the pooled prevalence and its determinants among pregnant women in East Africa. METHODS: We searched studies using PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar and grey literature that were published between January 01/2020 to January 30/2024. The studies were assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) quality assessment scale. The random-effect (DerSimonian) model was used to determine the pooled prevalence and associated factors of HBV among pregnant women. Heterogeneity were assessed by I2 statistic, sub-group analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Publication bias was assessed by Egger test, and the analysis was done using STATA version 17. RESULT: A total of 45 studies with 35639 pregnant women were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of HBV among pregnant women in East Africa was 6.0% (95% CI: 6.0%-7.0%, I2 = 89.7%). The highest prevalence of 8% ((95% CI: 6%, 10%), I2 = 91.08%) was seen in 2021, and the lowest prevalence 5% ((95% CI: 4%, 6%) I2 = 52.52%) was observed in 2022. A pooled meta-analysis showed that history of surgical procedure (OR = 2.14 (95% CI: 1.27, 3.61)), having multiple sexual partners (OR = 3.87 (95% CI: 2.52, 5.95), history of body tattooing (OR = 2.55 (95% CI: 1.62, 4.01)), history of tooth extraction (OR = 2.09 (95% CI: 1.29, 3.39)), abortion history(OR = 2.20(95% CI: 1.38, 3.50)), history of sharing sharp material (OR = 1.88 (95% CI: 1.07, 3.31)), blood transfusion (OR = 2.41 (95% CI: 1.62, 3.57)), family history of HBV (OR = 4.87 (95% CI: 2.95, 8.05)) and history needle injury (OR = 2.62 (95% CI: 1.20, 5.72)) were significant risk factors associated with HBV infection among pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: The pooled prevalence of HBV infection among pregnant women in East Africa was an intermediate level and different across countries ranging from 1.5% to 22.2%. The result of this pooled prevalence was an indication of the need for screening, prevention, and control of HBV infection among pregnant women in the region. Therefore, early identification of risk factors, awareness creation on the mode of transmission HBV and implementation of preventive measures are essential in reducing the burden of HBV infection among pregnant women.

Machine learning algorithms to predict healthcare-seeking behaviors of mothers for acute respiratory infections and their determinants among children under five in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5 globally. Maternal healthcare-seeking behavior may help minimize mortality associated with ARIs since they make decisions about the kind and frequency of healthcare services for their children. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the absence of maternal healthcare-seeking behavior and identify its associated factors among children under the age 5 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using machine learning models. Methods: The sub-Saharan African countries' demographic health survey was the source of the dataset. We used a weighted sample of 16,832 under-five children in this study. The data were processed using Python (version 3.9), and machine learning models such as extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest, decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes were applied. In this study, we used evaluation metrics, including the AUC ROC curve, accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure, to assess the performance of the predictive models. Result: In this study, a weighted sample of 16,832 under-five children was used in the final analysis. Among the proposed machine learning models, the random forest (RF) was the best-predicted model with an accuracy of 88.89%, a precision of 89.5%, an F-measure of 83%, an AUC ROC curve of 95.8%, and a recall of 77.6% in predicting the absence of mothers' healthcare-seeking behavior for ARIs. The accuracy for Naïve Bayes was the lowest (66.41%) when compared to other proposed models. No media exposure, living in rural areas, not breastfeeding, poor wealth status, home delivery, no ANC visit, no maternal education, mothers' age group of 35-49 years, and distance to health facilities were significant predictors for the absence of mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviors for ARIs. On the other hand, undernourished children with stunting, underweight, and wasting status, diarrhea, birth size, married women, being a male or female sex child, and having a maternal occupation were significantly associated with good maternal healthcare-seeking behaviors for ARIs among under-five children. Conclusion: The RF model provides greater predictive power for estimating mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviors based on ARI risk factors. Machine learning could help achieve early prediction and intervention in children with high-risk ARIs. This leads to a recommendation for policy direction to reduce child mortality due to ARIs in sub-Saharan countries.

Predicting the individualized risk of human immunodeficiency virus infection among sexually active women in Ethiopia using a nomogram: prediction model development and validation.

Introduction: Women are more vulnerable to HIV infection due to biological and socioeconomic reasons. Developing a predictive model for these vulnerable populations to estimate individualized risk for HIV infection is relevant for targeted preventive interventions. The objective of the study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model that allows easy estimations of HIV infection risk among sexually active women in Ethiopia. Methods: Data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, which comprised 10,253 representative sexually active women, were used for model development. Variables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Variables selected by LASSO were incorporated into the multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression model. Based on the multivariable model, an easy-to-use nomogram was developed to facilitate its applicability. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using discrimination and calibration abilities, Brier score, sensitivity, and specificity. Internal validation was carried out using the bootstrapping method. Results: The model selected seven predictors of HIV infection, namely, age, education, marital status, sex of the household head, age at first sex, multiple sexual partners during their lifetime, and residence. The nomogram had a discriminatory power of 89.7% (95% CI: 88.0, 91.5) and a calibration p-value of 0.536. In addition, the sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram were 74.1% (95% CI: 68.4, 79.2) and 80.9% (95% CI: 80.2, 81.7), respectively. The internally validated model had a discriminatory ability of 89.4% (95% CI: 87.7, 91.1) and a calibration p-value of 0.195. Sensitivity and specificity after validation were 72.9% (95% CI: 67.2, 78.2) and 80.1% (95% CI: 79.3, 80.9), respectively. Conclusion: A new prediction model that quantifies the individualized risk of HIV infection has been developed in the form of a nomogram and internally validated. It has very good discriminatory power and good calibration ability. This model can facilitate the identification of sexually active women at high risk of HIV infection for targeted preventive measures.

Factors associated with problematic internet use among University of Gondar undergraduate students, Northwest Ethiopia: Structural equation modeling.

BACKGROUND: For young adults and adolescents, excessive internet use has become a serious public health concern due to its negative impact on their health. It has been associated with detrimental effects on both physical and mental health. Negative academic outcomes were observed in the students, including missing classes, lower grades, and academic dismissal. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to identify factors associated with PIU among undergraduate students at the University of Gondar. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the University of Gondar among 1514 undergraduate students from June 1-20, 2022. The study participants were selected using a stratified simple random selection procedure. Using structural equation modeling, the degree of relationship was ascertained. A p-value of less than 0.05 and an adjusted regression coefficient with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to interpret the data. RESULTS: In our study, being from non-health departments [ß = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.037, 0.181], current alcohol use [ß = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.061, 0.187], depressive symptoms [ß = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.175, 0.291], insomnia symptoms [ß = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.060, 0.196], and ADHD symptoms [ß = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.049, 0.166] had a significant positive effect on PIU, while having a history of head injury had a significant negative effect [ß = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.226, -0.021] on PIU. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: Factors such as current alcohol use, non-health department type, depressive symptoms, insomnia, and ADHD symptoms were positively associated with PIU. However, a history of head injuries was negatively associated with PIU. Therefore, strategies aimed at the early identification of PIU may lead to an improvement in the psychosocial health of university students.

Risk score prediction for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in northwest Ethiopia: prognostic model development.

OBJECTIVE: This study was aimed at developing a risk score prediction model for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (TB) among adults with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. METHODS: An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 569 adults with HIV on ART. We used demographic and clinical prognostic factors to develop a risk prediction model. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination and calibration using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration plot. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility. RESULTS: Opportunistic infection, functional status, anemia, isoniazid preventive therapy, and WHO clinical stages were used to develop risk prediction. The AUROC curve of the original model was 87.53% [95% confidence interval (CI): 83.88-91.25] and the calibration plot ( P -value = 0.51). After internal validation, the AUROC curve of 86.61% (95% CI: 82.92-90.29%) was comparable with the original model, with an optimism coefficient of 0.0096 and good calibration ( P -value = 0.10). Our model revealed excellent sensitivity (92.65%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (98.60%) with very good specificity (70.06%) and accuracy (72.76%). After validation, accuracy (74.85%) and specificity (76.27%) were improved, but sensitivity (86.76%) and NPV (97.66%) were relatively reduced. The risk prediction model had a net benefit up to 7.5 threshold probabilities. CONCLUSION: This prognostic model had very good performance. Moreover, it had very good sensitivity and excellent NPV. The model could help clinicians use risk estimation and stratification for early diagnosis and treatment to improve patient outcomes and quality of life.

Geographically weighted regression analysis to assess hotspots of early sexual initiation and associated factors in Ethiopia.

Background: Early sexual initiation (ESI) causes unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STI), high risk of depression and anxiety, developmental delays, lack of emotional maturity, and difficulty in pursuing education. This study aims to analyze the geographically weighted regression and associated factors of ESI of women in Ethiopia. Methods: The study utilized data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2016. It included a weighted sample of 11,775 women. Spatial regression was carried out to determine which factors are related to hotspots of ESI of women. To identify the factors associated with ESI, a multilevel Poisson regression model with robust variance was conducted. An adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) with its 95 % confidence interval was presented. Results: The prevalence of ESI was 75.3 % (95%CI: 74.6 %, 76.1 %), showing notable spatial variation across different regions of Ethiopia. Areas of significant hotspots of ESI were identified in Western and Southern Tigray, most parts of Amhara, Southern, Central and Western Afar, Eastern Gambella, and North Western SNNPR. The significant variables for the spatial variation of ESI were; being single, rural residence, and having no formal education of the women. Factors including; wealth index, marital status, khat chewing, education level, residence, and region were associated significantly with ESI in the multilevel robust Poisson analysis. Conclusion: A higher proportion of ESI in women was found. Public health interventions must be made by targeting hotspot areas of ESI through increasing health care access and education (specifically among rural residents), developing a comprehensive sexual education, implementing policies and laws that outlaw early marriage, and mass community-based programs to increase awareness about the importance of delaying sexual activity.

Incidence rate of mortality and its predictors among tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among HIV-infected adults and children globally. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia. Methods: Extensive database searching was done via PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Google from the time of idea conception on March 1, 2023, to the last search via Google on March 31, 2023. A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to determine the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients. Heterogeneity was handled using subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis. Results: Out of 2,100 records, 18 articles were included, with 26,291 total patients. The pooled incidence rate of mortality among TB/HIV patients was 12.49 (95% CI: 9.24-15.74) per 100 person-years observation (PYO); I2 = 96.9%. The mortality rate among children and adults was 5.10 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 2.15-8.01; I2 = 84.6%) and 15.78 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 10.84-20.73; I2 = 97.7%), respectively. Age ≥ 45 (pooled hazard ratios (PHR) 2.58, 95% CI: 2.00- 3.31), unemployed (PHR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.37-3.46), not HIV-disclosed (PHR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.65-4.70), bedridden (PHR 5.89, 95% CI: 3.43-10.12), OI (PHR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.16-5.66), WHO stage IV (PHR 3.16, 95% CI: 2.18-4.58), BMI < 18.5 (PHR 4.11, 95% CI: 2.28-7.40), anemia (PHR 4.43, 95% CI: 2.73-7.18), EPTB 5.78, 95% CI: 2.61-12.78 significantly affected the mortality. The effect of TB on mortality was 1.95 times higher (PHR 1.95, 95% CI: 1.19-3.20; I2 = 0) than in TB-free individuals. Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia was higher compared with many African countries. Many clinical factors were identified as significant risk factors for mortality. Therefore, TB/HIV program managers and clinicians need to design an intervention early.

Spatial variation of zero fruits/vegetables consumption and associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia: geographical weighted regression analysis.

Background: After 6 months, nutrient-dense, varied diets containing fruits and vegetables are crucial to supplement breastfeeding. Like many other low-income countries, Ethiopia has very low FV consumption. Zero vegetable or fruit (ZVF) consumption has been shown to significantly raise the risk of non-communicable diseases and has been ranked among the top 10 risk factors for mortality. And it is associated with poor health, an increased risk of obesity, and a higher risk of non-communicable diseases. Thus, this study's goal was to investigate the spatial distribution of ZVF consumption and its spatial determinants among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed. A total of 1,489 weighted samples were included from kids' datasets from the 2019 Ethiopian mini-demographic and health survey. STATA version 16, ArcGIS version 10.8, Kuldorff's SaTScan version 9.6, and MGWR version 2.0 software were used for analysis. Spatial regression analyses (geographical weighted regression and ordinary least squares analysis) were conducted. Models were compared using AICc and adjusted R2. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistically significant spatial predictors, and the corresponding local coefficients were mapped. Results: The spatial distribution of ZVF consumption among children aged 6-23 months was non-random in Ethiopia. Spatial scan analysis revealed a total of 120 significant clusters. Maternal education, wealth status, age of the child, place of delivery, number of under-five children in the house, and current pregnancy status were significant predictors of the spatial variation of ZVF consumption. Conclusion: Significant geographic variation in ZVF consumption was found in this study throughout Ethiopia's regions. Significant predictors of the spatial variation in ZVF consumption were maternal education, wealth status, child age, place of delivery, number of under-five children in the home, and status as a pregnant woman at the time of birth. Therefore, in order to improve children's adequate consumption of fruit and vegetables, area-based interventions that can consider these significant factors into account are needed.

Spatial variation and associated factors of inadequate counselling regarding pregnancy danger signs during antenatal care visits among pregnant women in Ethiopia: a Geographically Weighted Regression Model.

INTRODUCTION: Inadequate counselling of pregnant women regarding pregnancy danger signs contributes to a delay in deciding to seek care, which causes up to 77% of all maternal deaths in developing countries. However, its spatial variation and region-specific predictors have not been studied in Ethiopia. Hence, the current study aimed to model its predictors using geographically weighted regression analysis. METHODS: The 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey data were used. A total weighted sample of 2922 women from 283 clusters was included in the final analysis. The analysis was performed using ArcGIS Pro, STATA V.14.2 and SaTScan V.10.1 software. The spatial variation of inadequate counselling was examined using hotspot analysis. Ordinary least squares regression was used to identify factors for geographical variations. Geographically weighted regression was used to explore the spatial heterogeneity of selected variables to predict inadequate counselling. RESULTS: Significant hotspots of inadequate counselling regarding pregnancy danger signs were found in Gambella region, the border between Amhara and Afar regions, Somali region and parts of Oromia region. Antenatal care provided by health extension workers, late first antenatal care initiation and antenatal care follow-up at health centres were spatially varying predictors. The geographically weighted regression model explained about 66% of the variation in the model. CONCLUSION: Inadequate counselling service regarding pregnancy danger signs in Ethiopia varies across regions and there exists within country inequality in the service provision and utilisation. Prioritisation and extra efforts should be made by concerned actors for those underprivileged areas and communities (as shown in the maps), and health extension workers, as they are found in the study.

Geospatial variation of exclusive breastfeeding and its determinants among mothers of infants under 6 months in Ethiopia: spatial and geographical weighted regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. However, the spatial variation of EBF and the associated factors have not been studied as much as we have searched. This study aimed at assessing geospatial variation and the predictors of EBF using geographically weighted regression. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using the 2019 Mini-Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data set. The study used a total weighted sample of 548 infants. Hotspot spatial analysis showed the hotspot and cold spot areas of EBF. The spatial distribution of EBF was interpolated for the target population using spatial interpolation analysis. SaTScan V.9.6 software was used to detect significant clusters. Ordinary least squares regression analysis identified significant spatial predictors. In geographically weighted regression analysis, the effect of predictor variables on the spatial variation of EBF was detected using local coefficients. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of EBF in Ethiopia was 58.97% (95% CI 52.67% to 64.99%), and its spatial distribution was found to be clustered (global Moran's I=0.56, p<0.001). Significant hotspot areas were located in Amhara, Tigray, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region, and Somali regions, while significant cold spots were located in Dire Dawa, Addis Ababa and Oromia regions. Kulldorff's SaTScan V.9.6 was used to detect significant clusters of EBF using a 50% maximum cluster size per population. The geographically weighted regression model explained 35.75% of the spatial variation in EBF. The proportions of households with middle wealth index and married women were significant spatial predictors of EBF. CONCLUSION: Middle wealth index and married women were significant spatial predictors of EBF. Our detailed map of EBF hotspot areas will help policymakers and health programmers encourage the practice of EBF in hotspot areas and set national and regional programmes focused on improving EBF in cold spots by considering significant predictor variables.

Anxiety and depression among cancer patients in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Anxiety and depression are among the common comorbidities of people diagnosed with cancer. However, despite the progress in therapeutic options and outcomes, mental health care and support have lagged behind for cancer patients. Estimating the extent and determinants of mental health disorders among cancer patients is crucial to alert concerned bodies for action. In view of this, we aimed to determine the pooled prevalence and determinants of anxiety and depression among cancer patients in Ethiopia. Methods: Relevant literatures were searched on PubMed, African Journals Online, Hinari, Epistemonikos, Scopus, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Gray literature sources. Data were extracted into an Excel spreadsheet and analyzed using STATA 17 statistical software. The random effect model was used to summarize the pooled effect sizes with their respective 95% confidence intervals. The I2 statistics and Egger's regression test in conjunction with the funnel plot were utilized to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias among included studies respectively. Results: A total of 17 studies with 5,592 participants were considered in this review. The pooled prevalence of anxiety and depression among cancer patients in Ethiopia were 45.10% (95% CI: 36.74, 53.45) and 42.96% (95% CI: 34.98, 50.93), respectively. Primary and above education (OR= 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.97), poor social support (OR= 2.27, 95% CI: 1.29, 3.98), occupational status (OR= 0.59; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.82), advanced cancer stage (OR= 2.19, 95% CI: 1.38, 3.47), comorbid illness (OR= 1.67; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.58) and poor sleep quality (OR= 11.34, 95% CI: 6.47, 19.89) were significantly associated with depression. Whereas, advanced cancer stage (OR= 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.20) and poor sleep quality (OR= 12.56, 95% CI: 6.4 1, 24.62) were the factors associated with anxiety. Conclusion: This meta-analysis indicated that a substantial proportion of cancer patients suffer from anxiety and depression in Ethiopia. Educational status, occupational status, social support, cancer stage, comorbid illness and sleep quality were significantly associated with depression. Whereas, anxiety was predicted by cancer stage and sleep quality. Thus, the provision of comprehensive mental health support as a constituent of chronic cancer care is crucial to mitigate the impact and occurrence of anxiety and depression among cancer patients. Besides, families and the community should strengthen social support for cancer patients. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42023468621.

Nomogram to predict risk of neonatal mortality among preterm neonates admitted with sepsis at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: risk prediction model development and validation.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in premature neonates is a global public health problem. In developing countries, nearly 50% of preterm births ends with death. Sepsis is one of the major causes of death in preterm neonates. Risk prediction model for mortality in preterm septic neonates helps for directing the decision making process made by clinicians. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate nomogram for the prediction of neonatal mortality. Nomograms are tools which assist the clinical decision making process through early estimation of risks prompting early interventions. METHODS: A three year retrospective follow up study was conducted at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and a total of 603 preterm neonates with sepsis were included. Data was collected using KoboCollect and analyzed using STATA version 16 and R version 4.2.1. Lasso regression was used to select the most potent predictors and to minimize the problem of overfitting. Nomogram was developed using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination and calibration. Internal model validation was done using bootstrapping. Net benefit of the nomogram was assessed through decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical relevance of the model. RESULT: The nomogram was developed using nine predictors: gestational age, maternal history of premature rupture of membrane, hypoglycemia, respiratory distress syndrome, perinatal asphyxia, necrotizing enterocolitis, total bilirubin, platelet count and kangaroo-mother care. The model had discriminatory power of 96.7% (95% CI: 95.6, 97.9) and P-value of 0.165 in the calibration test before and after internal validation with brier score of 0.07. Based on the net benefit analysis the nomogram was found better than treat all and treat none conditions. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram can be used for individualized mortality risk prediction with excellent performance, better net benefit and have been found to be useful in clinical practice with contribution in preterm neonatal mortality reduction by giving better emphasis for those at high risk.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Estimate the Risk of Stroke Among Hypertensive Patients in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Gondar, 2012 to 2022.

Background: A risk prediction model to predict the risk of stroke has been developed for hypertensive patients. However, the discriminating power is poor, and the predictors are not easily accessible in low-income countries. Therefore, developing a validated risk prediction model to estimate the risk of stroke could help physicians to choose optimal treatment and precisely estimate the risk of stroke. Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a risk prediction model to estimate the risk of stroke among hypertensive patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Methods: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 743 hypertensive patients between September 01/2012 and January 31/2022. The participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and Brier scores. Internal validity and clinical utility were evaluated using bootstrapping and a decision curve analysis. Results: Incidence of stroke was 31.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 26.0, 37.7). Combinations of six predictors were selected for model development (sex, residence, baseline diastolic blood pressure, comorbidity, diabetes, and uncontrolled hypertension). In multivariable logistic regression, the discriminatory power of the model was 0.973 (95% CI: 0.959, 0.987). Calibration plot illustrated an overlap between the probabilities of the predicted and actual observed risks after 10,000 times bootstrap re-sampling, with a sensitivity of 92.79%, specificity 93.51%, and accuracy of 93.41%. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the net benefit of the model was better than other intervention strategies, starting from the initial point. Conclusion: An internally validated, accurate prediction model was developed and visualized in a nomogram. The model is then changed to an offline mobile web-based application to facilitate clinical applicability. The authors recommend that other researchers eternally validate the model.

Spatial variation of premarital HIV testing and its associated factors among married women in Ethiopia: Multilevel and spatial analysis using 2016 demographic and health survey data.

BACKGROUND: Africa is the most severely affected area, accounting for more than two-thirds of the people living with HIV. In sub-Saharan Africa, more than 85% of new HIV-infected adolescents and 63% of all new HIV infections are accounted for by women. Ethiopia has achieved a 50% incidence rate reduction. However, mortality rate reduction is slow, as the estimated prevalence in 2021 is 0.8%. In sub-Saharan Africa, heterosexual transmission accounts for the majority of HIV infections, and women account for 58% of people living with HIV. Most of these transmissions took place during marriage. Thus, this study aimed to explore the spatial variation of premarital HIV testing across regions of Ethiopia and identify associated factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was employed. A total of 10223 weighted samples were taken from individual datasets of the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. STATA version 14 and ArcGIS version 10.8 software's were used for analysis. A multilevel mixed-effect generalized linear model was fitted, and an adjusted prevalence Ratio with a 95% CI and p-value < 0.05 was used to declare significantly associated factors. Multilevel models were compared using information criteria and log-likelihood. Descriptive and spatial regression analyses (geographical weighted regression and ordinary least squares analysis) were conducted. Models were compared using AICc and adjusted R-squared. The local coefficients of spatial explanatory variables were mapped. RESULTS: In spatial regression analysis, secondary and above education level, richer and above wealth quintile, household media exposure, big problem of distance to health facility, having high risky sexual behaviour and knowing the place of HIV testing were significant explanatory variables for spatial variation of premarital HIV testing among married women. While in the multilevel analysis, age, education level, religion, household media exposure, wealth index, khat chewing, previous history of HIV testing,age at first sex, HIV related knowledge, HIV related stigma, distance to health facility, and community level media exposure were associated with premarital HIV testing among married women. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION: Premarital HIV testing had a significant spatial variation across regions of Ethiopia. A statistically significant clustering of premarital HIV testing was observed at Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, North Tigray and some parts of Afar and Amhara regions. Therefore area based prevention and interventional strategies are required at cold spot areas to halt the role of heterosexual transmission in HIV burden. Moreover, the considering the spatial explanatory variables effect in implementations of these strategies rather than random provision of service would make regional health care delivery systems more cost-effective.

Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic neuropathy is the most common complication in both Type-1 and Type-2 DM patients with more than one half of all patients developing nerve dysfunction in their lifetime. Although, risk prediction model was developed for diabetic neuropathy in developed countries, It is not applicable in clinical practice, due to poor data, methodological problems, inappropriately analyzed and reported. To date, no risk prediction model developed for diabetic neuropathy among DM in Ethiopia, Therefore, this study aimed prediction the risk of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients, used for guiding in clinical decision making for clinicians. OBJECTIVE: Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021. METHODS: A retrospective follow up study was conducted with a total of 808 DM patients were enrolled from January 1,2005 to December 30,2021 at two selected referral hospitals in Amhara regional state. Multi-stage sampling techniques were used and the data was collected by checklist from medical records by Kobo collect and exported to STATA version-17 for analysis. Lasso method were used to select predictors and entered to multivariable logistic regression with P-value<0.05 was used for nomogram development. Model performance was assessed by AUC and calibration plot. Internal validation was done through bootstrapping method and decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate net benefit of model. RESULTS: The incidence proportion of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients was 21.29% (95% CI; 18.59, 24.25). In multivariable logistic regression glycemic control, other comorbidities, physical activity, hypertension, alcohol drinking, type of treatment, white blood cells and red blood cells count were statistically significant. Nomogram was developed, has discriminating power AUC; 73.2% (95% CI; 69.0%, 77.3%) and calibration test (P-value = 0.45). It was internally validated by bootstrapping method with discrimination performance 71.7 (95% CI; 67.2%, 75.9%). It had less optimism coefficient (0.015). To make nomogram accessible, mobile based tool were developed. In machine learning, classification and regression tree has discriminating performance of 70.2% (95% CI; 65.8%, 74.6%). The model had high net benefit at different threshold probabilities in both nomogram and classification and regression tree. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram and decision tree, has good level of accuracy and well calibration, easily individualized prediction of diabetic neuropathy. Both models had added net benefit in clinical practice and to be clinically applicable mobile based tool were developed.