The quantification of Simpson's paradox and other contributions to contingency table theory.

The analysis of contingency tables is a powerful statistical tool used in experiments with categorical variables. This study improves parts of the theory underlying the use of contingency tables. Specifically, the linkage disequilibrium parameter as a measure of two-way interactions applied to three-way tables makes it possible to quantify Simpson's paradox by a simple formula. With tests on three-way interactions, there is only one that determines whether the partial interactions of all variables agree or whether there is at least one variable whose partial interactions disagree. To date, there has been no test available that determines whether the partial interactions of a certain variable agree or disagree, and the presented work closes this gap. This work reveals the relation of the multiplicative and the additive measure of a three-way interaction. Another contribution addresses the question of which cells in a contingency table are fixed when the first- and second-order marginal totals are given. The proposed procedure not only detects fixed zero counts but also fixed positive counts. This impacts the determination of the degrees of freedom. Furthermore, limitations of methods that simulate contingency tables with given pairwise associations are addressed.

Estimation of Recombination Rate and Maternal Linkage Disequilibrium in Half-Sibs.

A livestock population can be characterized by different population genetic parameters, such as linkage disequilibrium and recombination rate between pairs of genetic markers. The population structure, which may be caused by family stratification, has an influence on the estimates of these parameters. An expectation maximization algorithm has been proposed for estimating these parameters in half-sibs without phasing the progeny. It, however, overlooks the fact that the underlying likelihood function may have two maxima. The magnitudes of the maxima depend on the maternal allele frequencies at the investigated marker pair. Which maximum the algorithm converges to depends on the chosen start values. We present a stepwise procedure in which the relationship between the two modes is exploited. The expectation maximization algorithm for the parameter estimation is applied twice using different start values, followed by a decision process to assess the most likely estimate. This approach was validated using simulated genotypes of half-sibs. It was also applied to a dairy cattle dataset consisting of multiple half-sib families and 39,780 marker genotypes, leading to estimates for 12,759,713 intrachromosomal marker pairs. Furthermore, the proper order of markers was verified by studying the mean of estimated recombination rates in a window adjacent to the investigated locus as well as in a window at its most distant chromosome end. Putatively misplaced markers or marker clusters were detected by comparing the results with the revised bovine genome assembly UMD 3.1.1. In total, 40 markers were identified as candidates of misplacement. This outcome may help improving the physical order of markers which is also required for refining the bovine genetic map.

Covariance Between Genotypic Effects and its Use for Genomic Inference in Half-Sib Families.

In livestock, current statistical approaches utilize extensive molecular data, e.g., single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), to improve the genetic evaluation of individuals. The number of model parameters increases with the number of SNPs, so the multicollinearity between covariates can affect the results obtained using whole genome regression methods. In this study, dependencies between SNPs due to linkage and linkage disequilibrium among the chromosome segments were explicitly considered in methods used to estimate the effects of SNPs. The population structure affects the extent of such dependencies, so the covariance among SNP genotypes was derived for half-sib families, which are typical in livestock populations. Conditional on the SNP haplotypes of the common parent (sire), the theoretical covariance was determined using the haplotype frequencies of the population from which the individual parent (dam) was derived. The resulting covariance matrix was included in a statistical model for a trait of interest, and this covariance matrix was then used to specify prior assumptions for SNP effects in a Bayesian framework. The approach was applied to one family in simulated scenarios (few and many quantitative trait loci) and using semireal data obtained from dairy cattle to identify genome segments that affect performance traits, as well as to investigate the impact on predictive ability. Compared with a method that does not explicitly consider any of the relationship among predictor variables, the accuracy of genetic value prediction was improved by 10-22%. The results show that the inclusion of dependence is particularly important for genomic inference based on small sample sizes.

Mendelian sampling covariability of marker effects and genetic values.

BACKGROUND: Measures of the expected genetic variability among full-sibs are of practical relevance, such as in the context of mating decisions. An important application field in animal and plant breeding is the selection and allocation of mates when large or small amounts of genetic variability among offspring are desired, depending on user-specific goals. Estimates of the Mendelian sampling variance can be obtained by simulating gametes from parents with known diplotypes. Knowledge of recombination rates and additive marker effects is also required. In this study, we aimed at developing an exact method that can account for both additive and dominance effects. RESULTS: We derived parent-specific covariance matrices that exactly quantify the within-family (co-)variability of additive and dominance marker effects. These matrices incorporate prior knowledge of the parental diplotypes and recombination rates. When combined with additive marker effects, they allow the exact derivation of the Mendelian sampling (co-)variances of (estimated) breeding values for several traits, as well for the aggregate genotype. A comparative analysis demonstrated good average agreement between the exact values and the simulation results for a practical dataset (74,353 German Holstein cattle). CONCLUSIONS: The newly derived method is suitable for calculating the exact amount of intra-family variation of the estimated breeding values and genetic values (comprising additive and dominance effects).

Genetic improvement of traits affected by interactions among individuals: Sib selection schemes.

Livestock populations are usually kept in groups. As a consequence, social interactions among individuals affect productivity, health, and welfare. Current selection methods (individual selection), however, ignore those interactions and yield suboptimal or in some cases even negative responses. In principle, selection between groups instead of individuals offers a solution, but has rarely been adopted in practice for two reasons. First, the relationship between group selection theory and common animal breeding concepts, such as the accuracy of selection, is unclear. Second, application of group selection requires keeping selection candidates in groups, which is often undesirable in practice. This work has two objectives. First, we derive expressions for the accuracy of individual and group selection, which provides a measurement of quality for those methods. Second, we investigate the opportunity to improve traits affected by interactions by using information on relatives kept in family groups, while keeping selection candidates individually. The accuracy of selection based on relatives is shown to be an analogy of the classical expression for traits not affected by interactions. Our results show that selection based on relatives offers good opportunities for effective genetic improvement of traits affected by interactions.

Haplotype probabilities for multiple-strain recombinant inbred lines.

Recombinant inbred lines (RIL) derived from multiple inbred strains can serve as a powerful resource for the genetic dissection of complex traits. The use of such multiple-strain RIL requires a detailed knowledge of the haplotype structure in such lines. Broman (2005) derived the two- and three-point haplotype probabilities for 2(n)-way RIL; the former required hefty computation to infer the symbolic results, and the latter were strictly numerical. We describe a simpler approach for the calculation of these probabilities, which allowed us to derive the symbolic form of the three-point haplotype probabilities. We also extend the two-point results for the case of additional generations of intermating, including the case of 2(n)-way intermated recombinant inbred populations (IRIP).