Can We Do Better Next Time? Italians' Response to the COVID-19 Emergency through a Heuristics and Biases Lens.

During the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, people often failed to adopt behaviors that could have stopped, or at least slowed down, the spread of this deadly disease. We offer cognitive explanations for these decisions, based on some of the most common heuristics and biases that are known to influence human judgment and decision-making, especially under conditions of high uncertainty. Our analysis concludes with the following recommendations: policymakers can and should take advantage of this established science, in order to communicate more effectively and increase the likelihood that people choose responsible actions in a public health crisis.

Who are maximizers? Future oriented and highly numerate individuals.

Two studies investigated cognitive mechanisms that may be associated with people's tendency to maximize. Maximizers are individuals who are spending a great amount of effort in order to find the very best option in a decision situation, rather than stopping the decision process when they encounter a satisfying option. These studies show that maximizers are more future oriented than other people, which may motivate them to invest the extra energy into optimal choices. Maximizers also have higher numerical skills, possibly facilitating the cognitive processes involved with decision trade-offs.

Time flies when you maximize - maximizers and satisficers perceive time differently when making decisions.

Three experiments assessed whether maximizing and satisficing decision-making types were associated with differences in perception of time, as a consequence of their different cognitive workloads. Findings showed that maximizers and satisficers perceived time differently during decision-making, but not during other tasks. In particular, compared to satisficers, maximizers tended to underestimate time while choosing, independently of the number of options and the specific task requirements. Satisficers instead tended to underestimate time only when the number of options or the task requirements were more challenging. Our findings suggest that the perception of time may serve as a measure of the cognitive workload associated with decision-making types. The findings furthermore suggest that satisficers adopt a more malleable decision-making process than maximizers.

Handedness and calendar orientations in time-space synaesthesia.

In one common variant of time-space synaesthesia, individuals report the consistent experience of months bound to a spatial arrangement, commonly described as a circle extending outside of the body. Whereas the layout of these calendars has previously been thought to be relatively random and to differ greatly between synaesthetes, Study 1 provides the first evidence suggesting one critical aspect of these calendars is mediated by handedness: clockwise versus counter-clockwise orientation. A study of 34 time-space synaesthetes revealed a strong association between handedness and the orientation of circular calendars. That is, left-handed time-space synaesthetes tended to report counter-clockwise arrangements and right-handed synaesthetes clockwise. Study 2 tested whether a similar bias was present in non-synaesthetes whose task was to memorize and recall the spatial configuration of a clockwise and counter-clockwise calendar. Non-synaesthetes' relative performance on these two sorts of calendars was significantly correlated with their handedness scores in a pattern similar to synaesthetes. Specifically, left-handed controls performed better on counter-clockwise calendars compared to clockwise, and right-handed controls on clockwise over counter-clockwise. We suggest that the implicit biases seen in controls are mediated by similar mechanisms as in synaesthesia, highlighting the graded nature of synaesthetic associations.

A baseline for the multivariate comparison of resting-state networks.

As the size of functional and structural MRI datasets expands, it becomes increasingly important to establish a baseline from which diagnostic relevance may be determined, a processing strategy that efficiently prepares data for analysis, and a statistical approach that identifies important effects in a manner that is both robust and reproducible. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate analytic approach that optimizes sensitivity and reduces unnecessary testing. We demonstrate the utility of this mega-analytic approach by identifying the effects of age and gender on the resting-state networks (RSNs) of 603 healthy adolescents and adults (mean age: 23.4 years, range: 12-71 years). Data were collected on the same scanner, preprocessed using an automated analysis pipeline based in SPM, and studied using group independent component analysis. RSNs were identified and evaluated in terms of three primary outcome measures: time course spectral power, spatial map intensity, and functional network connectivity. Results revealed robust effects of age on all three outcome measures, largely indicating decreases in network coherence and connectivity with increasing age. Gender effects were of smaller magnitude but suggested stronger intra-network connectivity in females and more inter-network connectivity in males, particularly with regard to sensorimotor networks. These findings, along with the analysis approach and statistical framework described here, provide a useful baseline for future investigations of brain networks in health and disease.

Spatial cueing in time-space synesthetes: An event-related brain potential study.

Some people report that they consistently and involuntarily associate time events, such as months of the year, with specific spatial locations; a condition referred to as time-space synesthesia. The present study investigated the manner in which such synesthetic time-space associations affect visuo-spatial attention via an endogenous cuing paradigm. Reaction times and ERPs were recorded as 12 time-space synesthetes and 12 control participants did a peripheral target detection task, cued by three different types of centrally presented cues: arrows pointing left or right, direction words "left" or "right", and month names associated with either the left or the right side of the synesthete's mental calendar (e.g., "October" or "May"). Cues were followed by probes on the left or right side of the screen, and participants responded to the probes with button presses. Behavioral and ERP data suggested that for synesthetes, month words functioned more effectively as cues to direct attention in space. In synesthetes but not controls, a comparison of ERPs to probes cued by months revealed effects of cue validity on the P3b component peaking 370 ms post-onset and on the subsequent positive slow wave (pSW) observed 600-900 ms post-onset (both larger for invalid probes). No effects of cue validity were observed on early visual potentials (N1) for probes cued by months. The findings suggest that in these time-space synesthetes cue validity influenced post-perceptual processes, such as stimulus evaluation and categorization, with no evidence for enhanced visual processing.

Change and persistence of personal identities after the transition to retirement.

This study addresses the question of how retired people's self-image differs from that of working people, and what factors predict people's self-definition as professionals or retirees. Seven hundred ninety-two Swiss persons aged 58-70 (386 men, 406 women; 349 not retired, 443 retired) were asked to rate the importance of different self-description domains (such as profession, family-roles, personal values, etc.). Results indicated that the profession domain remains important for self-description even after retirement, to the extent that retirement status does not predict the importance of the professional identity at all. Rather, consistent with social identity theory, the importance of the profession for self-description is best predicted by the status of the (former or current) job. The importance of the retirement status for self-definition is predicted best by a positive attitude toward aging. In general, retired respondents rated more domains of self-description as important than did not-yet-retired respondents, and no domain was less important after retirement. In other words, identity diversity was higher for the retired than for the not-yet-retired persons. In addition, high identity diversity correlated with a high satisfaction across different life domains.

Temporal sequences, synesthetic mappings, and cultural biases: the geography of time.

Time-space synesthetes report that they experience the months of the year as having a spatial layout. In Study 1, we characterize the phenomenology of calendar sequences produced by synesthetes and non-synesthetes, and show a conservative estimate of time-space synesthesia at 2.2% of the population. We demonstrate that synesthetes most commonly experience the months in a circular path, while non-synesthetes default to linear rows or rectangles. Study 2 compared synesthetes' and non-synesthetes' ability to memorize a novel spatial calendar, and revealed better performance in synesthetes. The capacity to learn mappings between arbitrary spatial forms and temporal sequences is present in all individuals, and time-space synesthetes' enhanced visuo-spatial memory abilities may underlie their creation of idiosyncratic spatial calendar forms.

Congruity Effects in Time and Space: Behavioral and ERP Measures.

Two experiments investigated whether motion metaphors for time affected the perception of spatial motion. Participants read sentences either about literal motion through space or metaphorical motion through time written from either the ego-moving or object-moving perspective. Each sentence was followed by a cartoon clip. Smiley-moving clips showed an iconic happy face moving toward a polygon, and shape-moving clips showed a polygon moving toward a happy face. In Experiment 1, using an explicit judgment task, participants judged smiley-moving cartoons as related to ego-moving sentences about space and about time, and shape-moving cartoons as related to object-moving sentences. In Experiment 2, participants viewed the same stimuli, but the cartoons were task-irrelevant. Event-related brain potentials revealed an early attentional effect of congruity on cartoons following sentences about space, and a later semantic effect on cartoons following sentences about time. Results are most consistent with accounts that posit differences in the processing of novel and conventional metaphors.

On Enigmas and Oracles: looking back to the future.

The Turing Day was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL) in Lausanne, Switzerland, on 28 June 2002.