Dietary patterns among a national random sample of British adults.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To identify groups within the UK male and female population who report similar patterns of diet. DESIGN: National representative dietary survey, using seven day weighed dietary records, of men and women aged 16-64 years living in private households in Great Britain in 1986-7. Cluster analysis was used to aggregate participants into diet groups. SETTING: Great Britain. PARTICIPANTS: 1087 men and 1110 women. RESULTS: 93% of men and 86% of women fell into one of four distinct diet groups. Among men the most prevalent diet group was "beer and convenience food" (34% of the male population); second was "traditional British diet" (18%); third was "healthier but sweet diet" (17.5%) and fourth was "healthier diet " (17%). Among women, the most prevalent diet group was " traditional British diet" (32%); second, was "healthy cosmopolitan diet" (25%); third was a "convenience food diet" (21%); and fourth was "healthier but sweet diet" (15%). There were important differences in nutrient profile, sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics between diet groups. CONCLUSIONS: Cluster analysis identified four diet groups among men and four among women, which differed not only in terms of reported dietary intakes, but also with respect to nutrient, social and behavioural profiles. The groups identified could provide a useful basis for development, monitoring and targeting of public health nutrition policy in the UK.

Recent trends in physician diagnosed COPD in women and men in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Recent trends in physician diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the UK were estimated, with a particular focus on women. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of British patients with COPD was constructed from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), a large automated database of UK general practice data. Prevalence and all-cause mortality rates by sex, calendar year, and severity of COPD, based on treatment only, were estimated from January 1990 to December 1997. RESULTS: A total of 50 714 incident COPD patients were studied, 23 277 (45.9%) of whom were women. From 1990 to 1997 the annual prevalence rates of physician diagnosed COPD in women rose continuously from 0.80% (95% CI 0.75 to 0.83) to 1.36% (95% CI 1.34 to 1.39), (p for trend <0.01), rising to the rate observed in men in 1990. Increases in the prevalence of COPD were observed in women of all ages; in contrast, a plateau was observed in the prevalence of COPD in men from the mid 1990s. All-cause mortality rates were higher in men than in women (106.8 versus 82.2 per 1000 person-years), with a consistently increased relative risk in men of 1.3 even after controlling for the severity of COPD. Significantly increased mortality rates were also observed in adults aged less than 65 years. The mean age at death was 76.5 years; patients with severe COPD died an average of three years before those with mild disease (p<0.01) and four years before the age and sex matched reference population. CONCLUSIONS: While prevalence rates of COPD in the UK seem to have peaked in men, they are continuing to rise in women. This trend, together with the ageing of the population and the long term cumulative effect of pack-years of smoking in women, is likely to increase the present burden of COPD in the UK.

Perinatal and infant mortality and low birth weight among residents near cokeworks in Great Britain.

With growing evidence of the adverse health effects of air pollution--especially fine particulates--investigators must concentrate on the fetus, neonate, and infant as potentially vulnerable groups. Cokeworks are a major source of smoke and sulfur dioxide. In the current study, the authors investigated whether populations residing near cokeworks had a higher risk of adverse perinatal and infant outcomes. Zones of 7.5-km radius around 22 cokeworks in Great Britain were studied, within which the authors assumed that exposure declined from highest levels within 2 km to background levels. Routinely recorded birth and death data for Great Britain during the period 1981-1992 were analyzed. Each individual record had a postcode that referred to a small geographical area of typically 15-17 addresses. The authors calculated expected numbers on the basis of regional rates, stratified by year, sex, and a small-area socioeconomic deprivation score. For all cokeworks combined, the observed/expected ratio (95% confidence intervals within parentheses) within 2 km of cokeworks was 1.00 (0.95, 1.06) for low-birth-weight (i.e., < 2,500 g) infants; 0.94 (0.78, 1.12) for still births; 0.95 (0.83, 1.09) for infant mortality; 0.86 (0.72, 1.03) for neonatal mortality; 1.10 (0.90, 1.33) for postneonatal mortality; 0.79 (0.30, 1.46) for respiratory postneonatal mortality; and 1.07 (0.77, 1.43) for postneonatal Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. Respiratory postneonatal mortality was low throughout the entire 0-7.5-km study area (observed/expected = 0.74 [0.61, 0.88]). There was no statistically significant decline in risk with distance from cokeworks for any of the outcomes studied. The authors concluded that there was no evidence of an increased risk of low birth weight, stillbirths, and/or neonatal mortality near cokeworks, and there was no strong evidence for any association between residence near cokeworks and postneonatal mortality. One must remember, however, the limited statistical power of the study to detect small risks.

Case-control study of hospital admission with asthma in children aged 5-14 years: relation with road traffic in north west London.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for an association between road traffic pollution and asthma is inconclusive. We report a case-control study of hospital admissions for asthma and respiratory illness among children aged 5-14 in relation to proxy markers of traffic related pollution. METHODS: The study was based on routine hospital admissions data in 1992/3 and 1993/4 for North Thames (West) health region within the M25 motorway. Cases were defined as emergency admissions for asthma (n = 1380) or all respiratory illness including asthma (n = 2131), and controls (n = 5703) were other emergency admissions excluding accidents. Cases and controls were compared with respect to distance of residence from nearest main road or roads with peak hour traffic >1000 vehicles and traffic volume within 150 m of residence, obtained by Geographical Information System techniques. Statistical analysis included adjustment for age, sex, admitting hospital, and a deprivation score for the census enumeration district of residence. RESULTS: Adjusted odds ratios of hospital admission for asthma and respiratory illness for children living within 150 m of a main road compared with those living further away were, respectively, 0.93 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.06) and 1.02 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed no association between risk of hospital admission for asthma or respiratory illness among children aged 5-14 and proxy markers of road traffic pollution.

Dual efficacy of lamivudine treatment in human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis B virus-coinfected persons in a randomized, controlled study (CAESAR). The CAESAR Coordinating Committee.

The efficacy and safety of lamivudine in persons coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 and hepatitis B virus (HBV) were examined in the CAESAR study, a randomized placebo-controlled trial assessing the addition of lamivudine (150 mg 2x/day) or lamivudine (150 mg 2x/day) plus loviride (100 mg 3x/day) to zidovudine-containing background antiretroviral treatment. Baseline hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) results were available for 1790 study subjects, of whom 122 (6.8%) tested positive. Retrospective analyses for serial HBV DNA, HBsAg, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) were performed on stored sera from 118 HBsAg-positive subjects. HBV DNA and HBeAg were present in 83% and 63%, respectively. At weeks 12 and 52, median log10 HBV DNA change was -2.0 and -2.7, respectively, in the lamivudine arms, compared with no reduction among placebo recipients (P<.001). A trend to lower alanine transferase level, and delayed progression of HIV-1 disease (relative hazard, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.80) were also seen in the lamivudine arms, compared with the placebo group.

Mortality among residents near cokeworks in Great Britain.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether residents near cokeworks have a higher standardised mortality than those further away, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory causes, which may be associated with pollution from cokeworks. METHOD: Cross sectional small area study with routinely collected postcoded mortality data and small area census statistics. Populations within 7.5 km of 22 cokeworks in Great Britain, 1981-92. Expected numbers of deaths within 2 and 7.5 km of cokeworks, and in eight distance bands up to 7.5 km of cokeworks, were calculated by indirect standardisation from national rates stratified for age and sex and a small area deprivation index, and adjusted for region. Age groups examined were all ages, 1-14, 15-64, 65-74, > or = 75. Only the 1-14 and 15-44 age groups were examined for asthma mortality. RESULTS: There was a 3% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1% to 4%) excess of all deaths within 2 km of cokeworks, and a significant decline in mortality with distance from cokeworks. The excess of deaths within 2 km was slightly higher for females and elderly people, but excesses within 2 km and declines in risk with distance were significant for all adult age groups and both sexes. The size of the excess within 2 km was 5% (95% CI 3% to 7%) for cardiovascular causes, 6% (95% CI 3% to 9%) for ischaemic heart disease, and 2% (95% CI -2% to 6%) for respiratory deaths, with significant declines in risk with distance for all these causes. There was a non-significant 15% (95% CI -1% to 101%) excess in asthma mortality in the 15-44 age group. There were no significant excesses in mortality among children but 95% CIs were wide. Within 2 km of cokeworks, the estimated additional excess all cause mortality for all ages combined related to region and mainly to the greater deprivation of the population over national levels was 12%. CONCLUSIONS: A small excess mortality near cokeworks as found in this study is plausible in the light of current evidence about the health impact of air pollution. However, in this study the effects of pollution from cokeworks, if any, are outweighed by the effects of deprivation on weighed by the effects of deprivation on mortality near cokeworks. It is not possible to confidently exclude socioeconomic confounding or biases resulting from inexact population estimation as explanations for the excess found.

Heterogeneity in systemic availability of ondansetron and granisetron following oral administration.

This open-label, randomized, two-way crossover study compared the relative heterogeneity in systemic availability of oral ondansetron and granisetron. It was conducted in 10 healthy male and 10 healthy female subjects aged 18 to 50 years. Following an overnight fast, each subject received 8 mg ondansetron and 1 mg granisetron. Treatments were separated by 7 days. Blood samples for drug assay were collected over a period of 36 h and variability in pharmacokinetic parameter estimates were assessed following standardization by their respective means. Granisetron showed significantly more variability than ondansetron in the three primary endpoints of the area under the curve extrapolated to infinite time, the area under the curve to the last quantifiable time point, and maximal concentration (p =.0032,.0037, and.0042, respectively). In one subject, concentrations of granisetron were detectable but below the lower limit of quantitation at any time point. The impact this variability may have on therapeutic efficacy is not clear. An apparent bimodal distribution in granisetron AUC infinite, which appeared to be related to smoking was observed. Because granisetron has been reported to be metabolized primarily by the cytochrome P-450 (CYP) 3A isozyme family in humans, it is possible that cigarette smoke could be an inducer of CYP3A or that CYP1A2, also implicated in the metabolism of granisetron and known to be induced by smoking, is more important in the biotransformation of granisetron than previously thought.

Lymphohaematopoietic malignancy around all industrial complexes that include major oil refineries in Great Britain.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the incidence of lymphohaematopoietic malignancy around industrial complexes that include major oil refineries in Great Britain after recent public and scientific concern of possible carcinogenic hazards of emissions from the petrochemical industry. METHODS: Small area study of the incidence of lymphohaematopoietic malignancies, 1974-91, within 7.5 km of all 11 oil refineries (grouped into seven sites) in Great Britain that were operational by the early 1970s and processed more than two million tonnes of crude oil in 1993. RESULTS: Combined analysis of data from all seven sites showed no significant (p < 0.05) increase in risk of these malignancies within 2 km or 7.5 km. Hodgkin's lymphoma, but no other malignancy, showed evidence (p = 0.02) of a decline in risk with distance from refineries, but there was an apparent deficit of cases of multiple myeloma near the refineries (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of association between residence near oil refineries and leukaemias, or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. A weak positive association was found between risk of Hodgkin's disease and proximity to major petrochemical industry, and a negative association with multiple myeloma, which may be chance findings within the context of multiple statistical testing.

Risk of lung cancer associated with residential radon exposure in south-west England: a case-control study.

Studies of underground miners occupationally exposed to radon have consistently demonstrated an increased risk of lung cancer in both smokers and non-smokers. Radon exposure also occurs elsewhere, especially in houses, and estimates based on the findings for miners suggest that residential radon is responsible for about one in 20 lung cancers in the UK, most being caused in combination with smoking. These calculations depend, however, on several assumptions and more direct evidence on the magnitude of the risk is needed. To obtain such evidence, a case-control study was carried out in south-west England in which 982 subjects with lung cancer and 3185 control subjects were interviewed. In addition, radon concentrations were measured at the addresses at which subjects had lived during the 30-year period ending 5 years before the interview. Lung cancer risk was examined in relation to residential radon concentration after taking into account the length of time that subjects had lived at each address and adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, county of residence and social class. The relative risk of lung cancer increased by 0.08 (95% CI -0.03, 0.20) per 100 Bq m(-3) increase in the observed time-weighted residential radon concentration. When the analysis was restricted to the 484 subjects with lung cancer and the 1637 control subjects with radon measurements available for the entire 30-year period of interest, the corresponding increase was somewhat higher at 0.14 per 100 Bq m(-3) (95% CI 0.01, 0.29), although the difference between this group and the remaining subjects was not statistically significant. When the analysis was repeated taking into account uncertainties in the assessment of radon exposure, the estimated increases in relative risk per 100 Bq m(-3) were larger, at 0.12 (95% CI -0.05, 0.33) when all subjects were included and 0.24 (95% CI -0.01, 0.56) when limited to subjects with radon measurements available for all 30 years. These results are consistent with those from studies of residential radon carried out in other countries in which data on individual subjects have been collected. The combined evidence suggests that the risk of lung cancer associated with residential radon exposure is about the size that has been postulated on the basis of the studies of miners exposed to radon.

Cancer incidence and mortality around the Pan Britannica Industries pesticide factory, Waltham Abbey.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the incidence and mortality of cancer near the Pan Britannica Industries factory, Waltham Abbey, after reports of a possible cluster of all cancers and brain cancer in the vicinity. METHOD: Small area study of cancer incidence 1977-89, and mortality 1981-92, within a 7.5 km radius of the factory site. Postcoded cancer registrations and deaths in the study area were extracted from national data sets held by the Small Area Health Statistics Unit and compared with expected numbers computed by applying national rates stratified for age, sex, and deprivation to the local population (1981 and 1991 censuses). Observed/ expected (O/E) ratios were examined from 0-1 km and 0-7.5 km of the plant, and tests applied for a decline in relative risk with distance up to 7.5 km. RESULTS: There were 12,859 incidence cancers (1977-89) from 0-7.5 km (O/E ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.02 to 1.06) and 385 from 0-1 km (O/E 1.10; 1.00 to 1.22). There was an excess of skin melanoma from 0-1 km based on 11 cases (O/E 2.13; 1.06 to 3.80), and an excess from 0-7.5 km of cancer of the lung, stomach and pancreas combined, and prostate (O/Es ranged from 1.09 to 1.13). Only the findings from lung cancer were suggestive of a decline in risk with distance, especially in the later period (1982-9). There were 9196 cancer deaths (1981-92) from 0-7.5 km (O/E 1.04; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06) and 308 from 0-1 km (O/E 1.24; 1.11 to 1.39); and 25507 non-cancer deaths (O/E 1.02; 1.01 to 1.04) from 0-7.5 km and 745 (O/E 1.14; 1.06 to 1.22) from 0-1 km. There was evidence of a decline in mortality with distance for all cancers combined, lung cancer (P = 0.001 for each), and colorectal cancer (P < 0.05), and also for non-cancers (P = 0.001). Proportional mortality analyses suggested a decline in risk with distance for lung cancer (P = 0.003) but not for all cancers or the site specific cancers examined. There was no evidence of an excess in the incidence or mortality from brain cancer. For cancer mortality in the inner-most wards, the findings were, for the most part, well within the range of variation across the region as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides limited and inconsistent evidence for a localised excess of cancer in the vicinity of the PBI plant. At present, further investigation does not seem warranted other than continued surveillance of mortality and cancer incidence in the locality.

Cancer incidence near radio and television transmitters in Great Britain. II. All high power transmitters.

A small area study of cancer incidence, 1974-1986, near 20 high power television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio transmitters in Great Britain was carried out to place in context the findings of an earlier study around the Sutton Coldfield transmitter. The national database of postcoded cancer registrations was used with population and socioeconomic data from the 1981 census. Cancers examined were adult leukemias, skin melanoma, and bladder cancer, following the findings in the earlier study of significant declines in risk of these cancers with distance from the Sutton Coldfield transmitter. Childhood leukemia and brain cancer were also examined. Statistical analysis was performed for all transmitters combined, four overlapping groups of transmitters defined by their transmission characteristics, and for all transmitters separately. There were 3,305 adult leukemia cases from 0-10 km (observed/expected (O/E) ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.07). A decline in risk of adult leukemia was found for all transmitters combined (p = 0.05), two of the transmitter groups, and three of the single transmitters; for all transmitters combined, observed excess risk was no more than 15% at any distance up to 10 km, and there was no observed excess within 2 km of transmitters (O/E ratio = 0.97, 95% CI 0.78-1.21). For childhood leukemia and brain cancer, and adult skin melanoma and bladder cancer, results were not indicative of a decline in risk with distance from transmitters. The magnitude and pattern of risk found in the Sutton Coldfield study did not appear to be replicated. The authors conclude that the results at most give no more than very weak support to the Sutton Coldfield findings.

Cancer incidence near radio and television transmitters in Great Britain. I. Sutton Coldfield transmitter.

A small area study of cancer incidence in 1974-1986 was carried out to investigate an unconfirmed report of a "cluster" of leukemias and lymphomas near the Sutton Coldfield television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio transmitter in the West Midlands, England. The study used a national database of postcoded cancer registrations, and population and socioeconomic data from the 1981 census. Selected cancers were hematopoietic and lymphatic, brain, skin, eye, male breast, female breast, lung, colorectal, stomach, prostate, and bladder. Expected numbers of cancers in small areas were calculated by indirect standardization, with stratification for a small area socioeconomic index. The study area was defined as a 10 km radius circle around the transmitter, within which 10 bands of increasing distance from the transmitter were defined as a basis for testing for a decline in risk with distance, and an inner area was arbitrarily defined for descriptive purposes as a 2 km radius circle. The risk of adult leukemia within 2 km was 1.83 (95% confidence interval 1.22-2.74), and there was a significant decline in risk with distance from the transmitter (p = 0.001). These findings appeared to be consistent over the periods 1974-1980, 1981-1986, and were probably largely independent of the initially reported cluster, which appeared to concern mainly a later period. In the context of variability of leukemia risk across census wards in the West Midlands as a whole, the Sutton Coldfield findings were unusual. A significant decline in risk with distance was also found for skin cancer, possibly related to residual socioeconomic confounding, and for bladder cancer. Study of other radio and TV transmitters in Great Britain is required to put the present results in wider context. No causal implications can be made from a single cluster investigation of this kind.

Early continuous ST segment monitoring in unstable angina: prognostic value additional to the clinical characteristics and the admission electrocardiogram.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In unstable angina, clinical characteristics, resting electrocardiography, and early continuous ST segment monitoring have been individually reported to identify subgroups at increased risk of adverse outcome. It is not known, however, whether continuous ST monitoring provides additional prognostic information in such a setting. DESIGN: Observational study of 212 patients with unstable angina without evidence of acute myocardial infarction admitted to district general hospitals, who had participated in a randomised study comparing heparin and aspirin treatment versus aspirin alone. METHODS: Clinical variables and a 12 lead electrocardiogram (ECG) were recorded at admission, and treatment was standardised to include aspirin, atenolol, diltiazem, and intravenous glyceryl trinitrate, in addition to intravenous heparin (randomised treatment). Continuous ST segment monitoring was performed for 48 h and all inhospital adverse events were recorded. RESULTS: The admission ECG was normal in 61 patients (29%), showed ST depression in 59 (28%) (17 > or = 0.1 mV), and T wave changes in a further 69 (33%). The remaining 23 had Q waves (18), right bundle branch block (four), or ST elevation (one). During 8963 h of continuous ST segment monitoring (mean 42.3 h/patient), 132 episodes of transient myocardial ischaemia (104 silent) were recorded in 32 patients (15%). Forty patients (19%) had an adverse event (cardiac deaths (n = 3), non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 6) and, emergency revascularisation (n = 31)). Both admission ECG ST depression (P = 0.02), and transient ischaemia (P < 0.001) predicted an increased risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction or death, while no patients with a normal ECG died or had a myocardial infarction. Adverse outcome was predicted by admission ECG ST depression (regardless of severity) (odds ratio (OR) 3.41) (P < 0.001), and maintenance beta blocker treatment (OR 2.95) (P < 0.01). A normal ECG predicted a favourable outcome (OR 0.38) (P = 0.04), while T wave or other ECG changes were not predictive of outcome. Transient ischaemia was the strongest predictor of adverse prognosis (OR 4.61) (P < 0.001), retaining independent predictive value in multivariate analysis (OR 2.94) (P = 0.03), as did maintenance beta blocker treatment (OR 2.85) (P = 0.01) and admission ECG ST depression, which showed a trend towards independent predictive value (OR 2.11) (P = 0.076). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with unstable angina and a normal admission ECG have a good prognosis, while ST segment depression predicts an adverse outcome. Transient myocardial ischaemia detected by continuous ST segment monitoring in such patients receiving optimal medical treatment provides prognostic information additional to that gleaned from the clinical characteristics or the admission ECG.

Difficulties in predicting outcome in cardiac surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a novel combination of preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables (including the Parsonnet, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and III [APACHE II and III] scores) in cardiac surgery patients in order to predict hospital outcome, complications, and length of stay. DESIGN: Prospective survey. SETTING: Adult intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary care cardiothoracic surgery center. PATIENTS: All cardiac surgery patients admitted to the ICU over a 1-yr period. INTERVENTIONS: Medical history, Parsonnet score, intraoperative data (including bypass and ischemic times), APACHE II and III scores, complications, and outcome were collected for each patient. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One thousand eight patients were entered into the study. The mean Parsonnet score was 7.8 (range 0 to 33), mean APACHE II score 11.8 (range 2 to 33), and mean APACHE III score 42.5 (range 9 to 132). ICU mortality rate was 2.7% and hospital mortality rate was 3.8%. The mean APACHE II predicted risk of dying was 5.31%, which gave a standardized mortality ratio of 0.71. The above scores were all statistically well correlated with hospital mortality. Further, a logistic regression model was developed for the probability of hospital death. This model (which included bypass time, need for inotropes, mean arterial pressure, urea, and Glasgow Coma Scale) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87, while the Parsonnet score had an area of 0.82 and the APACHE II risk of dying had an area of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac surgery remains a difficult area for outcome prediction. A combination of intraoperative and postoperative variables can improve predictive ability.

Trends in childhood leukaemia in the Nordic countries in relation to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father's testes shortly before conception. DESIGN: Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s. SETTING: Nordic countries. SUBJECTS: Children aged under 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately. RESULTS: During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.

Mortality among United Kingdom servicemen who served abroad in the 1950s and 1960s.

The Registrar General's decennial supplements on occupational mortality provide only limited information on mortality in the armed forces in the United Kingdom. Mortality has therefore been studied among a group of 30,619 United Kingdom servicemen who served abroad in tropical or desert areas in the 1950s and 1960s, and who remained in the services for a total of at least five years. Mortality from all causes of death, all neoplasms, and all other known non-violent causes was lower than that expected from rates for all men in England and Wales, whereas mortality from accidents and violence was raised. These differences remained after adjustment for social class, affected both officers and other ranks, and had not disappeared even after the men had been followed up for at least 20 years. When mortality from 20 specific cancers and 10 other disease groups was examined there were significant excesses for cancers of the oesophagus (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 146; p = 0.03) and prostate (SMR = 156; p = 0.03), and significant deficits for cancers of the lung (SMR = 73; p less than 0.001), stomach (SMR = 66; p = 0.002), bladder (SMR = 53; p = 0.02), other specified neoplasms (SMR = 48; p = 0.001), coronary heart disease (SMR = 76; p less than 0.001), bronchitis, emphysema, and chronic obstructive lung disease (SMR = 42; p less than 0.001), and for five further groups of diseases unrelated to smoking or alcohol. Examination of mortality in each of the three services separately identified two specific hazards in the Royal Navy; seven deaths from mesothelioma occurred compared with less than 2.06 expected (p less than 0.005), and there was also an excess of neoplasms and of other diseases associated with alcohol (SMRs of 181 and 229; p = 0.002 and less than 0.001). Mortality from smoking related diseases other than those associated with alcohol was low in all three services, particularly among officers.

Time from infection with HIV to onset of AIDS in patients with haemophilia in the UK.

The two-stage parametric regression model of Brookmeyer and Goedert has been adapted and fitted to data on the development of AIDS in haemophiliacs in the UK who are seropositive for HIV. The risk of developing AIDS by a given time following seroconversion increases with increasing age at seroconversion. It is likely that the risk increases smoothly with age, although the data have been analysed in three age categories, and it is estimated that by seven years after seroconversion 6 per cent of patients aged under 25 at seroconversion, 20 per cent of those aged 25-44 and 34 per cent of those aged 45 or more have developed AIDS. For a given age at seroconversion the annual risk of developing AIDS increases with increasing time after seroconversion, and at seven years the annual risks of developing AIDS during the next year in the three age groups are estimated to be 2 per cent for those aged less than 25 at seroconversion, and 10 and 11 per cent respectively for those aged 25-44 and 45 or more.

Incidence of AIDS and excess of mortality associated with HIV in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom: report on behalf of the directors of haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS by time since seroconversion in haemophiliacs positive for HIV and to examine the evidence for excess mortality associated with HIV in those who had not yet been diagnosed as having AIDS. DESIGN--Analysis of data from ongoing national surveys. SETTING--Haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS--A total of 1201 men with haemophilia who had lived in the United Kingdom during 1980-7 and were positive for HIV. INTERVENTION--None. END POINTS--Diagnosis of AIDS; death in those not diagnosed as having AIDS. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Estimation of cumulative incidence of AIDS and number of excess deaths in seropositive patients not diagnosed with AIDS. Median follow up after seroconversion was 5 years 2 months. Eight five patients developed AIDS. Cumulative incidence of AIDS five years after seroconversion was 4% among patients aged less than 25 at first test positive for HIV, 6% among those aged 25-44, and 19% among those aged greater than or equal to 45. There was little evidence that type or severity of haemophilia or type of factor VIII or IX that had caused HIV infection affected the rate of progression to AIDS. Mortality was increased among those who had not been diagnosed as having AIDS, especially among those with "AIDS related complex." Thirteen deaths were observed among 36 patients diagnosed as having AIDS related complex against 0.65 expected, and 34 deaths in 1080 other patients against 22.77 expected; both calculations were based on mortality rates observed in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom in the late 1970s. CONCLUSIONS--Rate of progression to AIDS depended strongly on age. There is a substantial burden of fatal disease among patients positive for HIV who have not been formally diagnosed as having AIDS.