An assessment of climate change impacts on water sufficiency: The case of Extended East Rapti watershed, Nepal.

An understanding of water sufficiency provides a basis for informed-planning, development and management of water resources. This study assessed spatio-temporal distribution in water sufficiency in the Extended East Rapti watershed in Nepal. The "Palika" (local government unit) is considered as a spatial-scale and seasons and future periods as temporal-scale. The water sufficiency was evaluated based on water sufficiency ratio (WSR) and water stress index (WSI). A hydrological model was developed to simulate water availability. An ensemble of multiple Regional Climate Models was used for assessing climate change impacts. Results showed water sufficiency by mid-century is projected to decrease; WSR by 40% and WSI by 61%. Despite projected decrease in water sufficiency, annually available water resources are projected as sufficient for the demands until the mid-century, however, seasonal variability and scarcity in future is projected in most Palikas. Such results are useful for water security planning in the Palikas.

Measuring the unseen: mobilizing citizen scientists to monitor groundwater in Nepal.

Groundwater-level monitoring provides crucial information on the nature and status of aquifers and their response to stressors like climate change, groundwater extraction, and land use changes. Therefore, the development of a spatially distributed long-term monitoring network is indispensable for sustainable groundwater resource management. Despite being one of our greatest unseen resources, groundwater systems are too often poorly understood, ineffectively managed, and unsustainably used. This study investigates the feasibility of establishing a groundwater monitoring network mobilizing citizen scientists. We established a network of 45 shallow monitoring wells in the Kathmandu Valley using existing wells. We recruited 75% of the citizen scientists through personal connections and the rest through outreach programs at academic institutes and site visits. We used various methods to encourage citizen scientists to complete regular measurements and solicited feedback from them based on their experiences. Citizen scientists were more consistent during the monsoon season (June through September) than non-monsoon seasons. The depth-to-water below the ground surface varied from - 0.11 m (negative sign represents a groundwater level higher than the ground surface) to 11.5 m, with a mean of 4.07 m and standard deviation of 2.63 m. Groundwater levels began to rise abruptly with the onset of monsoon season and the shallowest and the deepest groundwater levels were recorded in peak rainfall months and dry months respectively. Citizen science-based groundwater monitoring using existing wells would be an economic and sustainable approach for groundwater monitoring. Improved groundwater-level data will provide essential information for understanding the shallow groundwater system of the valley, which will assist concerned authorities in planning and formulating evidence-based policy on sustainable groundwater management.

Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change.

Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.