Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore.

There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for "dark extinctions," i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.

Confronting spatial capture-recapture models with realistic animal movement simulations.

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have emerged as a robust method to estimate the population density of mobile animals. However, model evaluation has generally been based on data simulated from simplified representations of animal space use. Here, we generated data from animal movement simulated from a mechanistic individual-based model, in which movement emerges from the individual's response to a changing environment (i.e., from the bottom-up), driven by key ecological processes (e.g., resource memory and territoriality). We drew individual detection data from simulated movement trajectories and fitted detection data sets to a basic, resource selection and transience SCR model, as well as their variants accounting for resource-driven heterogeneity in density and detectability. Across all SCR models, abundance estimates were robust to multiple, but low-degree violations of the specified movement processes (e.g., resource selection). SCR models also successfully captured the positive effect of resource quality on density. However, covariate models failed to capture the finer scale effect of resource quality on detectability and space use, which may be a consequence of the low temporal resolution of SCR data sets and/or model misspecification. We show that home-range size is challenging to infer from the scale parameter alone, compounded by reliance on conventional measures of "true" home-range size that are highly sensitive to sampling regime. Additionally, we found the transience model challenging to fit, probably due to data sparsity and violation of the assumption of normally distributed inter-occasion movement of activity centers, suggesting that further development of the model is required for general applicability. Our results showed that further integration of complex movement into SCR models may not be necessary for population estimates of abundance when the level of individual heterogeneity induced by the underlying movement process is low, but appears warranted in terms of accurately revealing finer scale patterns of ecological and movement processes. Further investigation into whether this holds true in populations with other types of realistic movement characteristics is merited. Our study provides a framework to generate realistic SCR data sets to develop and evaluate more complex movement processes in SCR models.

Phylogeography of the smooth-coated otter (Lutrogale perspicillata): distinct evolutionary lineages and hybridization with the Asian small-clawed otter (Aonyx cinereus).

We investigated the phylogeography of the smooth-coated otter (Lutrogale perspicillata) to determine its spatial genetic structure for aiding an adaptive conservation management of the species. Fifty-eight modern and 11 archival (dated 1882-1970) otters sampled from Iraq to Malaysian Borneo were genotyped (mtDNA Cytochrome-b, 10 microsatellite DNA loci). Moreover, 16 Aonyx cinereus (Asian small-clawed otter) and seven Lutra lutra (Eurasian otter) were sequenced to increase information available for phylogenetic reconstructions. As reported in previous studies, we found that L. perspicillata, A. cinereus and A. capensis (African clawless otter) grouped in a clade sister to the genus Lutra, with L. perspicillata and A. cinereus being reciprocally monophyletic. Within L. perspicillata, we uncovered three Evolutionarily Significant Units and proved that L. p. maxwelli is not only endemic to Iraq but also the most recent subspecies. We suggest a revision of the distribution range limits of easternmost L. perspicillata subspecies. We show that smooth-coated otters in Singapore are L. perspicillata x A. cinereus hybrids with A. cinereus mtDNA, the first reported case of hybridization in the wild among otters. This result also provides evidence supporting the inclusion of L. perspicillata and A. cinereus in the genus Amblonyx, thus avoiding the paraphyly of the genus Aonyx.