Interpretation of gypsy moth frontal advance using meteorology in a conditional algorithm.

The gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, is a non-native species that continues to invade areas in North America. It spreads generally through stratified dispersal where local growth and diffusive spread are coupled with long-distance jumps ahead of the leading edge. Long-distance jumps due to anthropogenic movement of life stages is a well-documented spread mechanism. Another mechanism is the atmospheric transport of early instars and adult males, believed to occur over short distances. However, empirical gypsy moth population data continue to support the possibility of alternative methods of long-range dispersal. Such dispersal events seemed to have occurred in the mid- to late-1990s with spread across Lake Michigan to Wisconsin. Such dispersal would be against the prevailing wind flow for the area and would have crossed a significant physical barrier (Lake Michigan). The climatology of the region shows that vigorous cyclones can result in strong easterly winds in the area at the time when early instars are present. It is hypothesized that these storms would enable individuals to be blown across the Lake and explain the appearance of new population centers observed at several locations on the western shore of Lake Michigan nearly simultaneously. A synoptic climatology model coupled with population dynamics data from the area was parameterized to show an association between transport events and population spread from 1996 to 2007. This work highlights the importance of atmospheric transport events relative to the invasion dynamics of the gypsy moth, and serves as a model for understanding this mechanism of spread in other related biological invasions.

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust II. Combination of surface and upper-level conditions.

An invasive forest pathogen, Cronartium ribicola, white pine blister rust (WPBR), is believed to have arrived in the Sacramento Mountains of south-central New Mexico about 1970. Epidemiological and genetic evidence supports the hypothesis that introduction was the result of long-distance dispersal (LDD) by atmospheric transport from California. This study applies a method to identify the atmospheric conditions favorable for rust transport and infection. An upper level synoptic classification (ULSC) identifies patterns of upper-level flow favorable for the transport of rust spores from a source to a target. Transport data are coupled with data for surface conditions favorable for infection at a designated target. A resulting calendar lists likelihood classes for establishment by four-times-daily observations during a dispersal season from April through July in the years 1965 to 1974. The single most-favorable period for transport and infection at the New Mexico site was identified as 1-15 June 1969. Five additional sites in the western United States with susceptible white pine populations and known infestation status were then evaluated to verify the model. Only the infested sites exhibit an establishment likelihood of "high" or "very high." This suggests that the methodology correctly identifies locations with elevated establishment likelihood. Finally, likelihoods at nine additional points in the southwestern United States are determined and used to map regional patterns of transport, infection and establishment. The ULSC combined with appropriate surface meteorological data could be used to further investigate transport and infection, identify other areas at risk, assess the potential for gene flow of WPBR and evaluate long-distance dispersal of other pathogens.

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust. I. Development of an upper level synoptic classification.

This study developed a methodology to temporally classify large scale, upper level atmospheric conditions over North America, utilizing a newly-developed upper level synoptic classification (ULSC). Four meteorological variables: geopotential height, specific humidity, and u- and v-wind components, at the 500 hPa level over North America were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project dataset for the period 1965-1974. These data were subjected to principal components analysis to standardize and reduce the dataset, and then an average linkage clustering algorithm identified groups of observations with similar flow patterns. The procedure yielded 16 clusters. These flow patterns identified by the ULSC typify all patterns expected to be observed over the study area. Additionally, the resulting cluster calendar for the period 1965-1974 showed that the clusters are generally temporally continuous. Subsequent classification of additional observations through a z-score method produced acceptable results, indicating that additional observations may easily be incorporated into the ULSC calendar. The ULSC calendar of synoptic conditions can be used to identify situations that lead to periods of extreme weather, i.e., heat waves, flooding and droughts, and to explore long-distance dispersal of airborne particles and biota across North America.

What about upwind buffer zones for aerial applications?

Buffer zones are areas set adjacent to areas sprayed with pesticides in which spray drift can deposit without consequence. It has been suggested that buffer zones should totally surround areas to be sprayed. We reviewed the scientific literature and employed a recently developed mechanistic model of spray drift to assess the magnitude of upwind spray drift and the consequent need for upwind buffer zones. Neither the scientific literature nor the AgDRIFT model support the need for upwind buffer zones for typical aerial spray applications.

Atmospheric stability and the dispersion of pesticides.

Applicators have long recognized that temperature inversions dramatically influence the behavior of pesticide material released into the atmosphere during pesticide application. This behavior can be explained in terms of the relationship between vertical atmospheric temperature gradients (stability) and atmospheric mixing (turbulence). This relationship is not intuitively obvious, but once it is understood, it provides the applicator with a tool to use for anticipating pesticide drift potential. The term inversion is synonymous with a stable thermal layer in the atmosphere. In stable thermal layers, mixing is suppressed and both dispersion and translation (or mean movement) of material is slow. This is typical of clear nights. Conversely, under clear, sunny conditions mixing is strong and dispersion is rapid. This situation indicates an unstable thermal layer.