Research needs for loss and damage.

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations (UN) climate negotiations concluded in December against a backdrop of shattered climate records, extreme weather, and climate events in 2023 that resulted in substantial loss of life, impacts on health and wellbeing, climate-related mobility, food and water insecurity, and other socioeconomic effects worldwide. In this context, the importance of addressing loss and damage (L&D)-the negative impacts of climate change that persist despite mitigation and adaptation efforts-was paramount. With countries having agreed at the opening plenary to operationalize the L&D fund that was established in 2022 at COP27, inputs from the scientific community will be essential as the global community now seeks to bring the fund online.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development.

Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.

Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development.

Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.