ABSTRACT
ImportanceWith an abundant supply of COVID-19 vaccines becoming available in spring and summer 2021, the major barrier to high vaccination rates in the United States has been a lack of vaccine demand. This has contributed to a higher rate of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections amongst unvaccinated individuals as compared to vaccinated individuals. It is important to understand how low vaccination rates directly impact deaths resulting from SARS-CoV-2 infections in unvaccinated populations across the United States. ObjectiveTo estimate a lower bound on the number of vaccine-preventable deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections under various scenarios of vaccine completion, for every state of the United States. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis counterfactual simulation study varies the rates of complete vaccination coverage under the scenarios of 100%, 90% and 85% coverage of the adult (18+) population of the United States. For each scenario, we use U.S. state-level demographic information in conjunction with county-level vaccination statistics to compute a lower bound on the number of vaccine-preventable deaths for each state. ExposuresCOVID-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infection Main Outcomes and MeasuresDeath from SARS-CoV-2 infection ResultsBetween January 1st, 2021 and April 30th, 2022, there were 641,305 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. Assuming each state continued peak vaccination capacity after initially achieving its peak vaccination rate, a vaccination rate of 100% would have led to 322,324 deaths nationally, that of 90% would have led to 415,878 deaths, and that of 85% would have led to 463,305 deaths. As a comparison, using the state with the highest peak vaccination rate (per million population each week) for all the states, a vaccination rate of 100% would have led to 302,344 deaths nationally, that of 90% would have led to 398,289 deaths, and that of 85% would have led to 446,449 deaths. Conclusions and RelevanceOnce COVID-19 vaccine supplies peaked across the United States, if there had been 100% COVID-19 vaccination coverage of the over 18+ population, a conservative estimate of 318,981 deaths could have been potentially avoided through vaccination. For a 90% vaccination coverage, we estimate at least 225,427 deaths averted through vaccination, and at least 178,000 lives saved through vaccination for an 85% vaccination coverage.
ABSTRACT
ImportanceThe current wave of COVID-19 infections has led to media reports of ICUs across the country reaching critical capacity. But the degree to which this has happened and community and institutional characteristics of hospitals where capacity limits have been reached is largely unknown. ObjectiveTo determine changes in intensive care capacity in US acute care hospitals between September and early December, 2020 and to identify whether hospitals serving more vulnerable populations were more likely to exceed critical-levels of ICU occupancy. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsRetrospective observational cohort of US acute care hospitals reporting to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) from September 4, 2020 to December 3, 2020. Hospitals in this cohort were compared to all US acute care hospitals. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between community socioeconomic factors and hospital-structural features with a hospital reaching critical ICU capacity. ExposureCommunity-level socioeconomic status and hospital-structural features Main Outcomes and MeasuresOur primary outcome was reaching critical ICU capacity (>90%) for at least two weeks since September 4. Secondary outcomes included the weekly capacity and occupancy tabulated by state and by hospital referral region. Results1,791 hospitals had unsuppressed ICU capacity data in the HHS Protect dataset, with 45% of hospitals reaching critical ICU capacity for at least two weeks during the study period. Hospitals in the South (OR = 2.79, p<0.001), Midwest (OR = 1.76, p=0.01) and West (OR = 1.85, p<0.01) were more likely to reach critical capacity than those in the Northeast. For-profit hospitals (OR = 2.15, p<0.001), rural hospitals (OR = 1.40, p<0.05) and hospitals in areas of high uninsurance (OR = 1.94, p<0.001) were more likely to reach critical ICU capacity, while hospitals with more intensivists (OR = 0.92, p=0.044 and higher nurse-bed ratios (OR = 0.95, p=0.013) were less likely to reach critical capacity. Conclusions and RelevanceNearly half of U.S. hospitals reporting data to HHS Protect have reached critical capacity at some point since September. Those that are better resourced with staff were less likely to do so while for for-profit hospitals and those in poorer communities were more likely to reach capacity. Continued non-pharmacologic interventions are clearly needed to spread of the disease to ensure ICUs remain open for all patients needing critical care. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWith an increasing number of SARS-CoV2 infections, how has the burden on ICU capacity changed over the past three months and what community and institutional factors are associated with hospitals reaching critical capacity? Finding45% of US acute care hospitals have reached critical ICU capacity at some point over the past three months. Hospital located in areas with fewer insured people were more likely to reach critical ICU capacity. At an institutional level, for-profit hospitals, rural hospitals, and those that have less baseline staffing of intensivists and nurses were more likely to reach critical ICU capacity. MeaningThe COVID-19 pandemic appears to be disproportionately straining ICUs with fewer resources and staff, setting up a substantial risk to widen disparities in access to care for already underserved populations.