ABSTRACT
The gold standard for diagnosis of COVID-19 is detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR. However, the effect of systematic changes in specimen viral burden on the overall assay performance is not quantitatively described. We observed decreased viral burdens in our testing population as the pandemic progressed, with median sample Ct values increasing from 22.7 to 32.8 from weeks 14 and 20, respectively. We developed a method using computer simulations to quantify the implications of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral burden on observed assay performance. We found that overall decreasing viral burden can have profound effects on assay detection rates. When real-world Ct values were used as source data in a bootstrap resampling simulation, the sensitivity of the same hypothetical assay decreased from 97.59 (95% CI 97.3-97.9) in week 12, to 74.42 (95% CI 73.9-75) in week 20. Furthermore, simulated assays with a 3-fold or 10-fold reduced sensitivity would both appear to be >95% sensitive early in the pandemic, but sensitivity would fall to 85.55 (95% CI 84.9-86.2) and 74.38 (95% CI 73.6-75.1) later in the pandemic, respectively. Our modeling approach can be used to better quantitate the impact that specimen viral burden may have on the clinical application of tests and specimens.
ABSTRACT
ObjectiveSevere acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected millions of people worldwide. Our goal was to identify risk factors associated with admission and disease severity in patients with SARS-CoV-2. DesignThis was an observational, retrospective study based on real-world data for 7,995 patients with SARS-CoV-2 from a clinical data repository. SettingYale New Haven Health (YNHH) is a five-hospital academic health system serving a diverse patient population with community and teaching facilities in both urban and suburban areas. PopulationsThe study included adult patients who had SARS-CoV-2 testing at YNHH between March 1 and April 30, 2020. Main outcome and performance measuresPrimary outcomes were admission and in-hospital mortality for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined by RT-PCR testing. We also assessed features associated with the need for respiratory support. ResultsOf the 28605 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, 7995 patients (27.9%) had an infection (median age 52.3 years) and 2154 (26.9%) of these had an associated admission (median age 66.2 years). Of admitted patients, 1633 (75.8%) had a discharge disposition at the end of the study period. Of these, 192 (11.8%) required invasive mechanical ventilation and 227 (13.5%) expired. Increased age and male sex were positively associated with admission and in-hospital mortality (median age 81.9 years), while comorbidities had a much weaker association with the risk of admission or mortality. Black race (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.14-1.78) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.50-2.18) were identified as risk factors for admission, but, among discharged patients, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. ConclusionsThis observational study identified, among people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection, older age and male sex as the most strongly associated risks for admission and in-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. While minority racial and ethnic groups had increased burden of disease and risk of admission, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality for discharged patients was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. Ongoing studies will be needed to continue to evaluate these risks, particularly in the setting of evolving treatment guidelines.
