Phenogrouping heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction includes a heterogenous group of patients. Reclassification into distinct phenogroups to enable targeted interventions is a priority. This study aimed to identify distinct phenogroups, and compare phenogroup characteristics and outcomes, from electronic health record data. METHODS: 2,187 patients admitted to five UK hospitals with a diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 40% were identified from the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative database. Partition-based, model-based, and density-based machine learning clustering techniques were applied. Cox Proportional Hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks models were used to compare outcomes (all-cause mortality and hospitalisation for HF) across phenogroups. RESULTS: Three phenogroups were identified: (1) Younger, predominantly female patients with high prevalence of cardiometabolic and coronary disease; (2) More frail patients, with higher rates of lung disease and atrial fibrillation; (3) Patients characterised by systemic inflammation and high rates of diabetes and renal dysfunction. Survival profiles were distinct, with an increasing risk of all-cause mortality from phenogroups 1 to 3 (p < 0.001). Phenogroup membership significantly improved survival prediction compared to conventional factors. Phenogroups were not predictive of hospitalisation for HF. CONCLUSIONS: Applying unsupervised machine learning to routinely collected electronic health record data identified phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and unique survival profiles.

Designing clinical trials to address alcohol use and alcohol-associated liver disease: an expert panel Consensus Statement.

Most patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) engage in heavy drinking defined as 4 or more drinks per day (56 g) or 8 (112 g) or more drinks per week for women and 5 or more drinks per day (70 g) or 15 (210 g) or more drinks per week for men. Although abstinence from alcohol after diagnosis of ALD improves life expectancy and reduces the risk of decompensation of liver disease, few studies have evaluated whether treatment of alcohol use disorders will reduce progression of liver disease and improve liver-related outcomes. In November 2021, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism commissioned a task force that included hepatologists, addiction medicine specialists, statisticians, clinical trialists and members of regulatory agencies to develop recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials to evaluate the effect of alcohol use, particularly treatment to reduce or eliminate alcohol use in patients with ALD. The task force conducted extensive reviews of relevant literature on alcohol use disorders and ALD. Findings were presented at one in-person meeting and discussed over the next 16 months to develop the final recommendations. As few clinical trials directly address this topic, the 28 recommendations approved by all members of the task force represent a consensus of expert opinions.

Alcohol-Associated liver disease: Emerging therapeutic strategies.

The large and growing burden of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) - and the considerable burden of morbidity and mortality associated with it - has been a drive towards ongoing research into novel strategies for its treatment, with a particular focus upon alcohol-related hepatitis (AH). Management of alcohol-use disorder (AUD) forms the central pillar of ALD care, with evidence-based psychological and pharmacological approaches being well-established, and certain models demonstrating improved clinical outcomes when hepatology and addiction services are co-located. Corticosteroids have previously been used somewhat indiscriminately in patients with severe AH, but effective tools now exist to assess early response (and limit futile ongoing exposure). Techniques to predict risk of corticosteroid-related infection are also available, although current clinical strategies to mitigate this risk are limited. A variety of novel therapeutic approaches to AH are at different phases of trials and evidence-gathering, with some of the most promising signals related to cytokine manipulation, epigenetic modulation, and targeting of the gut microbiota (i.e. via faecal microbiota transplant). While remaining an ongoing source of debate, early liver transplant in severe AH has grown in interest and acceptability over the past decade as evidence supporting its efficacy builds, in the process challenging paradigms about mandatory pre-transplant sobriety periods. However, uncertainty remains regarding the optimal selection criteria, and whether liver transplant has a role for only a highly-limited proportion of AH patients or more widespread application. This review aims to provide an overview of this fast-moving field.

A polygenic risk score for alcohol-associated cirrhosis among heavy drinkers with European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) based on results from genome-wide association studies offer the prospect of risk stratification for many common and complex diseases. We developed a PRS for alcohol-associated cirrhosis by comparing single-nucleotide polymorphisms among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) versus drinkers who did not have evidence of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. METHODS: Using a data-driven approach, a PRS for ALC was generated using a meta-genome-wide association study of ALC (N=4305) and an independent cohort of heavy drinkers with ALC and without significant liver disease (N=3037). It was validated in 2 additional independent cohorts from the UK Biobank with diagnosed ALC (N=467) and high-risk drinking controls (N=8981) and participants in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort with alcohol-associated liver disease (N=121) and controls without liver disease (N=3239). RESULTS: A 20-single-nucleotide polymorphisms PRS for ALC (PRSALC) was generated that stratified risk for ALC comparing the top and bottom deciles of PRS in the 2 validation cohorts (ORs: 2.83 [95% CI: 1.82 -4.39] in UK Biobank; 4.40 [1.56 -12.44] in Indiana Biobank Liver cohort). Furthermore, PRSALC improved the prediction of ALC risk when added to the models of clinically known predictors of ALC risk. It also stratified the risk for metabolic dysfunction -associated steatotic liver disease -cirrhosis (3.94 [2.23 -6.95]) in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort -based exploratory analysis. CONCLUSIONS: PRSALC incorporates 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, predicts increased risk for ALC, and improves risk stratification for ALC compared with the models that only include clinical risk factors. This new score has the potential for early detection of heavy drinking patients who are at high risk for ALC.

Therapeutic inhibition of monocyte recruitment prevents checkpoint inhibitor-induced hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Checkpoint inhibitor-induced hepatitis (CPI-hepatitis) is an emerging problem with the widening use of CPIs in cancer immunotherapy. Here, we developed a mouse model to characterize the mechanism of CPI-hepatitis and to therapeutically target key pathways driving this pathology. METHODS: C57BL/6 wild-type (WT) mice were dosed with toll-like receptor (TLR)9 agonist (TLR9-L) for hepatic priming combined with anti-cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4 (CTLA-4) plus anti-programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) ("CPI") or phosphate buffered saline (PBS) control for up to 7 days. Flow cytometry, histology/immunofluorescence and messenger RNA sequencing were used to characterize liver myeloid/lymphoid subsets and inflammation. Hepatocyte damage was assessed by plasma alanine transaminase (ALT) and cytokeratin-18 (CK-18) measurements. In vivo investigations of CPI-hepatitis were carried out in Rag2-/- and Ccr2rfp/rfp transgenic mice, as well as following anti-CD4, anti-CD8 or cenicriviroc (CVC; CCR2/CCR5 antagonist) treatment. RESULTS: Co-administration of combination CPIs with TLR9-L induced liver pathology closely resembling human disease, with increased infiltration and clustering of granzyme B+perforin+CD8+ T cells and CCR2+ monocytes, 7 days post treatment. This was accompanied by apoptotic hepatocytes surrounding these clusters and elevated ALT and CK-18 plasma levels. Liver RNA sequencing identified key signaling pathways (JAK-STAT, NF-ΚB) and cytokine/chemokine networks (Ifnγ, Cxcl9, Ccl2/Ccr2) as drivers of CPI-hepatitis. Using this model, we show that CD8+ T cells mediate hepatocyte damage in experimental CPI-hepatitis. However, their liver recruitment, clustering, and cytotoxic activity is dependent on the presence of CCR2+ monocytes. The absence of hepatic monocyte recruitment in Ccr2rfp/rfp mice and CCR2 inhibition by CVC treatment in WT mice was able to prevent the development and reverse established experimental CPI-hepatitis. CONCLUSION: This newly established mouse model provides a platform for in vivo mechanistic studies of CPI-hepatitis. Using this model, we demonstrate the central role of liver infiltrating CCR2+ monocyte interaction with tissue-destructive CD8+ T cells in the pathogenesis of CPI-hepatitis and highlight CCR2 inhibition as a novel therapeutic target.

Multi-tissue profiling of oxylipins reveal a conserved up-regulation of epoxide:diol ratio that associates with white adipose tissue inflammation and liver steatosis in obesity.

BACKGROUND: Obesity drives maladaptive changes in the white adipose tissue (WAT) which can progressively cause insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease (MASLD). Obesity-mediated loss of WAT homeostasis can trigger liver steatosis through dysregulated lipid pathways such as those related to polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA)-derived oxylipins. However, the exact relationship between oxylipins and metabolic syndrome remains elusive and cross-tissue dynamics of oxylipins are ill-defined. METHODS: We quantified PUFA-related oxylipin species in the omental WAT, liver biopsies and plasma of 88 patients undergoing bariatric surgery (female N = 79) and 9 patients (female N = 4) undergoing upper gastrointestinal surgery, using UPLC-MS/MS. We integrated oxylipin abundance with WAT phenotypes (adipogenesis, adipocyte hypertrophy, macrophage infiltration, type I and VI collagen remodelling) and the severity of MASLD (steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis) quantified in each biopsy. The integrative analysis was subjected to (i) adjustment for known risk factors and, (ii) control for potential drug-effects through UPLC-MS/MS analysis of metformin-treated fat explants ex vivo. FINDINGS: We reveal a generalized down-regulation of cytochrome P450 (CYP)-derived diols during obesity conserved between the WAT and plasma. Notably, epoxide:diol ratio, indicative of soluble epoxide hydrolyse (sEH) activity, increases with WAT inflammation/fibrosis, hepatic steatosis and T2DM. Increased 12,13-EpOME:DiHOME in WAT and liver is a marker of worsening metabolic syndrome in patients with obesity. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest a dampened sEH activity and a possible role of fatty acid diols during metabolic syndrome in major metabolic organs such as WAT and liver. They also have implications in view of the clinical trials based on sEH inhibition for metabolic syndrome. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (PS3431_WMIH); Duke-NUS (Intramural Goh Cardiovascular Research Award (Duke-NUS-GCR/2022/0020); National Medical Research Council (OFLCG22may-0011); National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01 ES025034); NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Induced Liver Injury.

In recent years cancer treatment has been revolutionized by the development and wide application of checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) drugs, which are a form of immunotherapy. CPI treatment is associated with immune-related adverse events, off-target tissue destructive inflammatory complications, which may affect a range of organs, with liver inflammation (hepatitis) being one of the more commonly noted events. This is a novel form of drug-induced liver injury and a rapidly evolving field, as our understanding of both the basic immunopathology of CPI hepatitis (CPI-H) and optimal clinical management, races to catch up with the increasing application of this form of immunotherapy in clinical practice. In this review, we summarize current evidence and understanding of CPI-H, from fundamental immunology to practical patient management.

Dysregulated anti-oxidant signalling and compromised mitochondrial integrity negatively influence regulatory T cell function and viability in liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Dysregulated inflammatory responses and oxidative stress are key pathogenic drivers of chronic inflammatory diseases such as liver cirrhosis (LC). Regulatory T cells (Tregs) are essential to prevent excessive immune activation and maintain tissue homeostasis. While inflammatory cues are well known to modulate the function and stability of Tregs, the extent to which Tregs are influenced by oxidative stress has not been fully explored. METHODS: The phenotypic and functional properties of CD4+CD25+CD127lo/- Tregs isolated from patients with LC were compared to healthy controls (HC). Treg redox state was investigated by characterizing intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), NADPH oxidase-2 (Nox2) activity, mitochondrial function, morphology, and nuclear factor-erythroid 2-related factor (Nrf2) antioxidant signalling. The relevance of Nrf2 and its downstream target, Heme-oxygenase-1 (HO-1), in Treg function, stability, and survival, was further assessed using mouse models and CRISPR/Cas9-mediated HO-1 knock-out. FINDINGS: Circulating Tregs from LC patients displayed a reduced suppressive function, correlating with liver disease severity, associated with phenotypic abnormalities and increased apoptosis. Mechanistically, this was linked to a dysregulated Nrf2 signalling with resultant lower levels of HO-1, enhanced Nox2 activation, and impaired mitochondrial respiration and integrity. The functional deficit in LC Tregs could be partially recapitulated by culturing control Tregs in patient sera. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reveal that Tregs rely on functional redox homeostasis for their function, stability, and survival. Targeting Treg specific anti-oxidant pathways may have therapeutic potential to reverse the Treg impairment in conditions of oxidative damage such as advanced liver disease. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Wellcome Trust (211113/A/18/Z).

Impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B virus prophylaxis in pregnancy: a dynamic simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, WHO recommended the addition of peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP) to hepatitis B birth dose vaccination (HepB-BD) and hepatitis B infant vaccination (HepB3) to reduce mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in pregnant women who have a marker of high infectivity (ie, HBV DNA ≥200 000 international units per mL or HBeAg-positive). We aimed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of this recommendation and of a theoretical simplified strategy whereby PAP is given to all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive without risk stratification. METHODS: This modelling study used a dynamic simulation model of the HBV epidemic in 110 countries in all WHO regions, structured by age, sex, and country. We assessed three strategies of scaling up PAP for pregnant women: PAP for those with high viral load (PAP-VL); PAP for those who are HBeAg-positive (PAP-HBeAg); and PAP for all pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive (PAP-universal), in comparison with neonatal vaccination alone (HepB-BD). We investigated how different diagnostic and antiviral drug costs affected the cost-effectiveness of the strategies evaluated. Using a health-care provider perspective, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted in each country's population and compared these with country-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds. We also calculated new neonatal infections averted for each of the strategies. FINDINGS: Adding PAP-VL to HepB-BD could avert around 1·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·0 million-1·2 million) new neonatal infections by 2030 and around 3·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·0 million-3·4 million) new neonatal infections and approximately 8·8 million (7·8 million-9·7 million) DALYs by 2100 across all the countries modelled. This strategy would probably be cost-effective up to 2100 in 28 (26%) of 106 countries analysed (which included some of the countries that have the greatest HBV burden) if costs are as currently expected to be, and in 74 (70%) countries if diagnostic and monitoring costs were lowered (by about 60-75%). The relative cost-effectiveness of PAP-VL and PAP-HBeAg was finely balanced and depended on the respective diagnostic and monitoring costs. The PAP-universal strategy could be more cost-effective than either of these strategies in most countries, but the use of antiviral treatment could be five times as high than with PAP-VL. INTERPRETATION: PAP can provide substantial health benefits, and, although the current approach might already be cost-effective in some high-burden settings, decreased diagnostic costs would probably be needed for PAP to be cost-effective in most countries. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given about how such a strategy is implemented, and securing reduced costs for diagnostics should be a priority. The theoretical strategy of offering PAP to all women who are HBsAg-positive (eg, if diagnostic tests to identify mothers at risk of transmission are not available) could be a cost-effective alternative, depending on prevailing costs of diagnostics and antiviral therapy. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.

Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease: Integrated Management With Alcohol Use Disorder.

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is the most common cause of cirrhosis and liver-related mortality in many regions worldwide. Around 75% of patients with cirrhosis are unaware of their disease until they are referred to the emergency department. An innovative, noninvasive screening approach is required for an earlier diagnosis of liver fibrosis. In patients with ALD the physician is inevitably dealing with 2 major disorders: the liver disease itself and the alcohol use disorder (AUD). Focus only on the liver disease will inevitably lead to failure because transient improvements in liver function are rapidly overturned if the patient returns to alcohol consumption. For this reason, integrated models of care provided by hepatologists and addiction specialists are an effective approach, which are, however, not widely available. There are multiple pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic therapies for AUD. Progress has recently been made in the management of patients with severe AH who have improved survival through better understanding of the concept of response to medical treatment, improved survival prediction, and the advent of early liver transplantation. The emerging concept is that listing for transplantation a patient with severe ALD could lead to adjusting the duration of abstinence according to the severity and evolution of liver dysfunction and the patient's addictive profile.

Metabolic Profile Reflects Stages of Fibrosis in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide, with fibrosis stage being the main predictor for clinical outcomes. Here, we present the metabolic profile of NAFLD patients with regards to fibrosis progression. We included all consecutive new referrals for NAFLD services between 2011 and 2019. Demographic, anthropometric and clinical features and noninvasive markers of fibrosis were recorded at baseline and at follow-up. Significant and advanced fibrosis were defined using liver stiffness measurement (LSM) as LSM ≥ 8.1 kPa and LSM ≥ 12.1 kPa, respectively. Cirrhosis was diagnosed either histologically or clinically. Fast progressors of fibrosis were defined as those with delta stiffness ≥ 1.03 kPa/year (25% upper quartile of delta stiffness distribution). Targeted and untargeted metabolic profiles were analysed on fasting serum samples using Proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR). A total of 189 patients were included in the study; 111 (58.7%) underwent liver biopsy. Overall, 11.1% patients were diagnosed with cirrhosis, while 23.8% were classified as fast progressors. A combination of metabolites and lipoproteins could identify the fast fibrosis progressors (AUROC 0.788, 95% CI: 0.703-0.874, p < 0.001) and performed better than noninvasive markers. Specific metabolic profiles predict fibrosis progression in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Algorithms combining metabolites and lipids could be integrated in the risk-stratification of these patients.

Cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies in a screening and treatment programme for hepatitis B in The Gambia.

Background: Clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is complex and access to antiviral treatment remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. International guidelines recommend monitoring at least annually for disease progression among HBV-infected people not meeting treatment criteria at initial diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring. Methods: We used a mathematical model of HBV transmission and natural history, calibrated to all available West African data, to project the population-level health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies for HBV-infected individuals not initially eligible for antiviral treatment. We assumed that these patients were found in the year 2020 in a hypothetical community-based screening programme in The Gambia. Monitoring frequencies were varied between every 5 and every 1 year and targeted different age groups. Results: The currently recommended annual monitoring frequency was likely to be not cost-effective in comparison with other strategies in this setting. 5-yearly monitoring in 15-45-year olds, at US$338 per disability-adjusted life year averted, had the highest probability of being the most effective cost-effective monitoring strategy. Conclusions: Monitoring less frequently than once a year is a cost-effective strategy in a community-based HBV screening and treatment programme in The Gambia, with the optimal strategy depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold. Efficiencies may be gained by prioritising the 15-45-year age group for more intensive monitoring.

Optimized Systematic Review Tool: Application to Candidate Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

This review aims to develop an appropriate review tool for systematically collating metabolites that are dysregulated in disease and applies the method to identify novel diagnostic biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Studies that analyzed metabolites in blood or urine samples where HCC was compared with comparison groups (healthy, precirrhotic liver disease, cirrhosis) were eligible. Tumor tissue was included to help differentiate primary and secondary biomarkers. Searches were conducted on Medline and EMBASE. A bespoke "risk of bias" tool for metabolomic studies was developed adjusting for analytic quality. Discriminant metabolites for each sample type were ranked using a weighted score accounting for the direction and extent of change and the risk of bias of the reporting publication. A total of 84 eligible studies were included in the review (54 blood, 9 urine, and 15 tissue), with six studying multiple sample types. High-ranking metabolites, based on their weighted score, comprised energy metabolites, bile acids, acylcarnitines, and lysophosphocholines. This new review tool addresses an unmet need for incorporating quality of study design and analysis to overcome the gaps in standardization of reporting of metabolomic data. Validation studies, standardized study designs, and publications meeting minimal reporting standards are crucial for advancing the field beyond exploratory studies.

Mortality risk prediction of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in suspected acute coronary syndrome: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the use of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) as a biomarker for selecting patients for advanced cardiovascular (CV) therapies in the modern era. The prognostic value of mildly elevated hsCRP beyond troponin in a large real-world cohort of unselected patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is unknown. We evaluated whether a mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) was associated with mortality risk, beyond troponin level, in patients with suspected ACS. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative data of 257,948 patients with suspected ACS who had a troponin measured at 5 cardiac centres in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2017. Patients were divided into 4 hsCRP groups (<2, 2 to 4.9, 5 to 9.9, and 10 to 15 mg/L). The main outcome measure was mortality within 3 years of index presentation. The association between hsCRP levels and all-cause mortality was assessed using multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, haemoglobin, white cell count (WCC), platelet count, creatinine, and troponin. Following the exclusion criteria, there were 102,337 patients included in the analysis (hsCRP <2 mg/L (n = 38,390), 2 to 4.9 mg/L (n = 27,397), 5 to 9.9 mg/L (n = 26,957), and 10 to 15 mg/L (n = 9,593)). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, there was a positive and graded relationship between hsCRP level and mortality at baseline, which remained at 3 years (hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.18 to 1.48) for those with hsCRP 2.0 to 4.9 mg/L and 1.40 (1.26 to 1.57) and 2.00 (1.75 to 2.28) for those with hsCRP 5 to 9.9 mg/L and 10 to 15 mg/L, respectively. This relationship was independent of troponin in all suspected ACS patients and was further verified in those who were confirmed to have an ACS diagnosis by clinical coding. The main limitation of our study is that we did not have data on underlying cause of death; however, the exclusion of those with abnormal WCC or hsCRP levels >15 mg/L makes it unlikely that sepsis was a major contributor. CONCLUSIONS: These multicentre, real-world data from a large cohort of patients with suspected ACS suggest that mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) may be a clinically meaningful prognostic marker beyond troponin and point to its potential utility in selecting patients for novel treatments targeting inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT03507309.

The Intestinal Barrier and Its Dysfunction in Patients with Metabolic Diseases and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents an increasing cause of liver disease worldwide, mirroring the epidemics of obesity and metabolic syndrome. As there are still no licensed medications for treating the disease, there is an ongoing effort to elucidate the pathophysiology and to discover new treatment pathways. An increasing body of evidence has demonstrated a crosstalk between the gut and the liver, which plays a crucial role in the development and progression of liver disease. Among other intestinal factors, gut permeability represents an interesting factor at the interface of the gut-liver axis. In this narrative review, we summarise the evidence from human studies showing the association between increased gut permeability and NAFLD, as well as with type-2 diabetes and obesity. We also discuss the manipulation of the gut permeability as a potential therapeutical target in patients with NAFLD.

Cost effectiveness of simplified HCV screening-and-treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania has a relatively progressive illicit drug harm reduction (HR) policy, through a predominantly opioid substitution therapy-based programme. However, access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis and curative direct acting antiviral therapy remains elusive. We developed a cost-effectiveness model to evaluate a simplified HCV screening-and-treatment intervention amongst PWID in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov state transition model compared existing practice (no access to HCV viral confirmation and treatment) with the integration of point-of-care HCV screening and treatment within (1) existing HR services and (2) expansion to include PWID not currently engaged in HR. Outcome measures were screening, treatment, HR and disease-related costs per PWID, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a healthcare payer's perspective over a 30-year time horizon over a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds (USD$273 to USD$1,050). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted. RESULTS: Assuming a chronic HCV prevalence of 18.8%, screening-and-treatment in existing HR settings resulted in an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY averted of USD$633 and USD$1,161, respectively. Expanding to include an outreach programme for unengaged PWID yielded an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY-averted of USD$4,091 and USD$10,288. Factors affecting the sensitivity of the ICER value included the cost of HR and the health utility of non-cirrhotic disease states. CONCLUSION: Simplified HCV screening and treatment of PWID has the potential to be cost-effective in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. In practice, synergism of human and financial resources with established health programmes may offer a pragmatic solution to minimise operational costs.