ABSTRACT
Objective: Foodborne diseases pose a significant public health concern globally. This study aims to analyze the correlation between disease prevalence and climatic conditions, forecast the pattern of foodborne disease outbreaks, and offer insights for effective prevention and control strategies and optimizing health resource allocation policies in Guizhou Province. Methods: This study utilized the χ2 test and four comprehensive prediction models to analyze foodborne disease outbreaks recorded in the Guizhou Foodborne Disease Outbreak system between 2012 and 2022. The best-performing model was chosen to forecast the trend of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province, 2023-2025. Results: Significant variations were observed in the incidence of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province concerning various meteorological factors (all P≤0.05). Among all models, the SARIMA-ARIMAX combined model demonstrated the most accurate predictive performance (RMSE: Prophet model=67.645, SARIMA model=3.953, ARIMAX model=26.544, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=26.196; MAPE: Prophet model=42.357%, SARIMA model=37.740%, ARIMAX model=15.289%, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=13.961%). Conclusion: The analysis indicates that foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province demonstrate distinct seasonal patterns. It is recommended to concentrate prevention efforts during peak periods. The SARIMA-ARIMAX hybrid model enhances the precision of monthly forecasts for foodborne disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for future prevention and control strategies.
ABSTRACT
Mushroom poisoning is a public health concern worldwide that not only harms the physical and mental health of those who are poisoned but also increases the medical and financial burden on families and society. The present study aimed to describe and analyze the current situations and factors influencing mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou province, Southwest China, between January 2012 and June 2022, and to predict the future trends of its occurrence. Our study provides a basis for the rational formulation of prevention and control and medical resource allocation policies for mushroom poisoning. The epidemiological characteristics and factors influencing mushroom poisoning incidence were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods and the chi-squared test, respectively. Then, future occurrence trends were predicted using the SARIMA and Prophet models. In total, 1577 mushroom poisoning incidents were recorded in Guizhou Province, with 7347 exposures, 5497 cases, 3654 hospitalizations, and 93 fatalities. The mortality rate was 4.45% in 1 ~ 6 years higher than other age groups. There were notable geographic and seasonal characteristics, with the number of occurrences much higher in rural areas (1198) than in cities (379), and poisoning cases were more common during the rainy season (June to September). The mortality rate of household poisoning cases was 1.86%, with the most deaths occurring in households. Statistically significant differences were observed in the incidence across various cities, periods, and poisoning locations (P < 0.05). Both models had advantages and disadvantages for prediction. Nevertheless, the SARIMA model had better overall prediction results than the Prophet model (R > 0.9, the residual plot of the prediction results was randomly distributed, and RMSESARIMA < RMSEProphet). However, the prediction result plot of the Prophet model was more explanatory than the SARIMA model and could visualize overall and seasonal trends. Both models predicted that the prevalence of mushroom poisoning would continue to increase in the future; however, the number of fatalities is generally declining. Seasonal patterns indicated that a high number of deaths from gooseberry mushroom poisoning occurred in October. The epidemiological trends of mushroom poisoning remain severe, and health education on related knowledge must be strengthened in rural areas, with June to October as the key prevention and control phase. Further, medical treatment of mushroom poisoning cases with clinical symptoms should pay attention to inquiries to check whether the mushroom is similar in appearance to the Amanita, particularly in October.
Subject(s)
Mushroom Poisoning , Humans , Mushroom Poisoning/epidemiology , Amanita , Disease Outbreaks , China/epidemiology , HospitalizationABSTRACT
Objective@#To analyze the occurrence and epidemiological characteristics of acute poisoning caused by Coriaria sinica maxdim in Guizhou Province during 2015 to 2020, and to provide scientific basis for prevention of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning.@*Methods@#A total of 176 cases of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning were reported in Guizhou Province during 2015 to 2020, with all of the 505 affected were children and adolescents under 16 years old. No death was reported. Poisoning caused by Coriaria sinica maxim was most commonly reported in the year of 2020, with 97 reported incidents and 292 poisonings. Poisoning incidents were most freqently reported in the mature stage of Coriariasinica fruit during April to June, with 153 cases and 437 poisoning cases reported in May. The top three areas reporting Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning included Bijie, Anshun and Zunyi City, with the number of reported eventws being 57, 27, and 27, and poisoned children and adolescents of 160, 90, and 73. Most of the affected children were from rural areas. The median incubation period was 2 hours, and the primary clinical symptoms included vomiting( 93.66 %), nausea(58.02%) and abdominal pain(38.42%).@*Conclusion@#A large number of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning incidents occur due to unsupervised access to Coriaria sinica maxim among rural children. The publicity and education of children, especially for rural left behind children, should be strengthened to reduce the incidence of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning.
ABSTRACT
Objective@#To analyze the occurrence and epidemiological characteristics of acute poisoning caused by Coriaria sinica maxdim in Guizhou Province during 2015 to 2020, and to provide scientific basis for prevention of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning.@*Methods@#A total of 176 cases of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning were reported in Guizhou Province during 2015 to 2020, with all of the 505 affected were children and adolescents under 16 years old. No death was reported. Poisoning caused by Coriaria sinica maxim was most commonly reported in the year of 2020, with 97 reported incidents and 292 poisonings. Poisoning incidents were most freqently reported in the mature stage of Coriariasinica fruit during April to June, with 153 cases and 437 poisoning cases reported in May. The top three areas reporting Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning included Bijie, Anshun and Zunyi City, with the number of reported eventws being 57, 27, and 27, and poisoned children and adolescents of 160, 90, and 73. Most of the affected children were from rural areas. The median incubation period was 2 hours, and the primary clinical symptoms included vomiting( 93.66 %), nausea(58.02%) and abdominal pain(38.42%).@*Conclusion@#A large number of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning incidents occur due to unsupervised access to Coriaria sinica maxim among rural children. The publicity and education of children, especially for rural left behind children, should be strengthened to reduce the incidence of Coriaria sinica maxim poisoning.
