Date of marine annulus formation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and implications for retrospective growth analyses using scales.

Fish scales have increasingly been used to quantify annual and seasonal growth trends and in efforts to relate growth to environmental conditions. Understanding the timing of formation of an annulus (a group of narrowly spaced circuli) is critical when assessing the influence of marine ecosystem conditions on seasonal growth patterns of Atlantic salmon, yet the literature does not provide consistent answers regarding the timing or drivers of marine annulus formation. This study demonstrates a novel method for estimating stock-specific annulus formation timing based on marked individuals with known emigration and return/recovery dates. An equation was applied to estimate the date of annulus completion for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using known dates, number of circuli after the most recent annulus and marine circulus deposition rate. Five marine circulus deposition rate scenarios were tested, some of which accounted for individual, seasonal and age-related variability and others which use previously published marine circulus deposition rates. Based on these results, an argument is presented to reconsider the practice of assigning annulus formation dates to winter solstice in favour of dates estimated by a scenario that accounts for individual, seasonal and age-related variation in circulus deposition. This scenario suggests that annulus formation occurs between mid-February and late March. In this case, the annulus would be formed during the coldest part of the year in the primary overwintering area for North American Atlantic salmon.

Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change.

The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to freshwater and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of Atlantic and Pacific salmon and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington, USA, have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the rapid advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991, the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h 2 ~0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming; thus, the artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery-produced fish.

Beyond Correlation in the Detection of Climate Change Impacts: Testing a Mechanistic Hypothesis for Climatic Influence on Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Productivity.

Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship(s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.