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1.
BMJ Glob Health ; 8(2)2023 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36750273

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Reducing unmet need for modern contraception and expanding access to quality maternal health (MH) services are priorities for improving women's health and economic empowerment. To support investment decisions, we estimated the additional cost and expected health and economic benefits of achieving the United Nations targets of zero unmet need for modern contraceptive choices and 95% coverage of MH services by 2030 in select Small Island Developing States. METHODS: Five Pacific (Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) and four Caribbean (Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Saint Lucia) countries were considered based on population survey data availability. For each country, the Lives Saved Tool was used to model costs, health outcomes and economic benefits for two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) (coverage maintained) and coverage-targets-achieved, which scaled linearly from 2022 (following COVID-19 disruptions) coverage of evidence-based family planning and MH interventions to reach United Nations targets, including modern contraceptive methods and access to complete antenatal, delivery and emergency care. Unintended pregnancies, maternal deaths, stillbirths and newborn deaths averted by the coverage-targets-achieved scenario were converted to workforce, education and social economic benefits; and benefit-cost ratios were calculated. RESULTS: The coverage-targets-achieved scenario required an additional US$12.6M (US$10.8M-US$15.9M) over 2020-2030 for the five Pacific countries (15% more than US$82.4M to maintain BAU). This additional investment was estimated to avert 126 000 (40%) unintended pregnancies, 2200 (28%) stillbirths and 121 (29%) maternal deaths and lead to a 15-fold economic benefit of US$190.6M (US$67.0M-US$304.5M) by 2050. For the four Caribbean countries, an additional US$17.8M (US$15.3M-US$22.4M) was needed to reach the targets (4% more than US$405.4M to maintain BAU). This was estimated to avert 127 000 (23%) unintended pregnancies, 3600 (23%) stillbirths and 221 (25%) maternal deaths and lead to a 24-fold economic benefit of US$426.2M (US$138.6M-US$745.7M) by 2050. CONCLUSION: Achieving full coverage of contraceptive and MH services in the Pacific and Caribbean is likely to have a high return on investment.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Maternal Death , Infant, Newborn , Female , Pregnancy , Humans , Contraceptive Agents , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Maternal Health , Caribbean Region
2.
Rev Panam Salud Publica ; 46: e41, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35677216

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To estimate inequalities in demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods among women in Latin America and the Caribbean, with an emphasis on Brazil and Mexico, and to calculate the scenario for recovery of modern contraceptive coverage by expanding access to long-acting contraceptives (LARC) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: National health surveys from 2006 to 2018 were used to estimate the demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods and how it was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The scenario included three variables: coverage, health outcomes, and costs. Considering coverage, United Nations Population Fund data were used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on access to contraception in Latin America and the Caribbean. Health outcomes were assessed with the Impact 2 tool. Direct investment was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Results: Substantial inequalities were found in the use of modern contraceptive methods before the pandemic. We showed the potential cost-effectiveness of avoiding maternal deaths by introducing LARCs. Conclusions: In the scenario predicted for Brazil and Mexico, the costs of modern family planning and averted disability-adjusted life years are modest. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should consider promoting LARCs as a highly efficient and cost-effective intervention.

3.
Article in English | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-56017

ABSTRACT

[ABSTRACT]. Objectives. To estimate inequalities in demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods among women in Latin America and the Caribbean, with an emphasis on Brazil and Mexico, and to calculate the scenario for recovery of modern contraceptive coverage by expanding access to long-acting contraceptives (LARC) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. National health surveys from 2006 to 2018 were used to estimate the demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods and how it was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The scenario included three variables: coverage, health outcomes, and costs. Considering coverage, United Nations Population Fund data were used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on access to contraception in Latin America and the Caribbean. Health outcomes were assessed with the Impact 2 tool. Direct investment was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Results. Substantial inequalities were found in the use of modern contraceptive methods before the pandemic. We showed the potential cost-effectiveness of avoiding maternal deaths by introducing LARCs. Conclusions. In the scenario predicted for Brazil and Mexico, the costs of modern family planning and averted disability-adjusted life years are modest. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should consider promoting LARCs as a highly efficient and cost-effective intervention.


[RESUMEN]. Objetivos. Estimar las desigualdades en la demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos anticonceptivos modernos entre las mujeres de América Latina y el Caribe, especialmente en Brasil y México, y analizar el escenario de recuperación de la cobertura de los anticonceptivos modernos mediante la ampliación del acceso a los anticonceptivos de acción prolongada tras la pandemia de COVID-19. Métodos. Se emplearon encuestas nacionales de salud desde el año 2006 hasta el año 2018 para estimar la demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos modernos y el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19. El escenario comprendía tres variables: cobertura, resultados en materia de salud y costos. En lo respectivo a la cobertura, se emplearon datos del Fondo de Población de las Naciones Unidas para evaluar la repercusión de la COVID-19 en el acceso a los anticonceptivos en América Latina y el Caribe. Los resultados en materia de salud se examinaron con la herramienta Impact 2. Se empleó la inversión directa para evaluar la costo-efectividad. Resultados. Se encontraron desigualdades sustanciales en el uso de métodos anticonceptivos modernos antes de la pandemia. Se demostró la posible costo-efectividad de evitar muertes maternas mediante la introducción de anticonceptivos de acción prolongada. Conclusiones. De acuerdo con el escenario previsto para Brasil y México, los costos de la planificación familiar moderna y los años de vida ajustados en función de la discapacidad evitados son moderados. Los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe deberían considerar la posibilidad de p


[RESUMO]. Objetivos. Estimar as desigualdades na demanda por planejamento familiar atendida por métodos contraceptivos modernos em mulheres da América Latina e do Caribe, com ênfase no Brasil e no México, e calcular o cenário de recuperação da cobertura por métodos contraceptivos modernos por meio da ampliação do acesso a métodos contraceptivos reversíveis de longa duração (LARC) após a pandemia de COVID-19. Métodos. Foram usadas pesquisas nacionais de saúde de 2006 a 2018 para estimar a demanda por planejamento familiar atendida por métodos contraceptivos modernos e como ela foi afetada pela pandemia de COVID-19. O cenário incluiu três variáveis: cobertura, desfechos de saúde e custos. Para cobertura, os dados do Fundo de População das Nações Unidas foram usados para estimar o impacto da COVID-19 no acesso à contracepção na América Latina e no Caribe. Desfechos de saúde foram avaliados com a ferramenta Impact 2. O investimento direto foi usado para avaliar a relação custo-benefício. Resultados. Foram constatadas desigualdades importantes no uso de métodos contraceptivos modernos antes da pandemia. Demonstramos a potencial relação custo-benefício de evitar mortes maternas mediante a introdução de LARC. Conclusões. No cenário previsto para o Brasil e o México, os custos do planejamento familiar moderno e dos anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade por ele evitados são modestos. Os governos da América Latina e do Caribe devem considerar a promoção dos LARC como uma intervenção altamente eficiente e custo-efetiva.


Subject(s)
Long-Acting Reversible Contraception , Health Services Accessibility , COVID-19 , Latin America , Caribbean Region , Brazil , Mexico , Long-Acting Reversible Contraception , Health Services Accessibility , Latin America , Caribbean Region , Brazil , Mexico , Long-Acting Reversible Contraception , Health Services Accessibility , Caribbean Region
4.
Rev. panam. salud pública ; 46: e41, 2022. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS-Express | LILACS | ID: biblio-1432003

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Objectives. To estimate inequalities in demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods among women in Latin America and the Caribbean, with an emphasis on Brazil and Mexico, and to calculate the scenario for recovery of modern contraceptive coverage by expanding access to long-acting contraceptives (LARC) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. National health surveys from 2006 to 2018 were used to estimate the demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods and how it was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The scenario included three variables: coverage, health outcomes, and costs. Considering coverage, United Nations Population Fund data were used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on access to contraception in Latin America and the Caribbean. Health outcomes were assessed with the Impact 2 tool. Direct investment was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Results. Substantial inequalities were found in the use of modern contraceptive methods before the pandemic. We showed the potential cost-effectiveness of avoiding maternal deaths by introducing LARCs. Conclusions. In the scenario predicted for Brazil and Mexico, the costs of modern family planning and averted disability-adjusted life years are modest. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should consider promoting LARCs as a highly efficient and cost-effective intervention.


RESUMEN Objetivos. Estimar las desigualdades en la demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos anticonceptivos modernos entre las mujeres de América Latina y el Caribe, especialmente en Brasil y México, y analizar el escenario de recuperación de la cobertura de los anticonceptivos modernos mediante la ampliación del acceso a los anticonceptivos de acción prolongada tras la pandemia de COVID-19. Métodos. Se emplearon encuestas nacionales de salud desde el año 2006 hasta el año 2018 para estimar la demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos modernos y el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19. El escenario comprendía tres variables: cobertura, resultados en materia de salud y costos. En lo respectivo a la cobertura, se emplearon datos del Fondo de Población de las Naciones Unidas para evaluar la repercusión de la COVID-19 en el acceso a los anticonceptivos en América Latina y el Caribe. Los resultados en materia de salud se examinaron con la herramienta Impact 2. Se empleó la inversión directa para evaluar la costo-efectividad. Resultados. Se encontraron desigualdades sustanciales en el uso de métodos anticonceptivos modernos antes de la pandemia. Se demostró la posible costo-efectividad de evitar muertes maternas mediante la introducción de anticonceptivos de acción prolongada. Conclusiones. De acuerdo con el escenario previsto para Brasil y México, los costos de la planificación familiar moderna y los años de vida ajustados en función de la discapacidad evitados son moderados. Los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe deberían considerar la posibilidad de promover los anticonceptivos de acción prolongada como intervención sumamente eficiente y costo-efectiva.


RESUMO Objetivos. Estimar as desigualdades na demanda por planejamento familiar atendida por métodos contraceptivos modernos em mulheres da América Latina e do Caribe, com ênfase no Brasil e no México, e calcular o cenário de recuperação da cobertura por métodos contraceptivos modernos por meio da ampliação do acesso a métodos contraceptivos reversíveis de longa duração (LARC) após a pandemia de COVID-19. Métodos. Foram usadas pesquisas nacionais de saúde de 2006 a 2018 para estimar a demanda por planejamento familiar atendida por métodos contraceptivos modernos e como ela foi afetada pela pandemia de COVID-19. O cenário incluiu três variáveis: cobertura, desfechos de saúde e custos. Para cobertura, os dados do Fundo de População das Nações Unidas foram usados para estimar o impacto da COVID-19 no acesso à contracepção na América Latina e no Caribe. Desfechos de saúde foram avaliados com a ferramenta Impact 2. O investimento direto foi usado para avaliar a relação custo-benefício. Resultados. Foram constatadas desigualdades importantes no uso de métodos contraceptivos modernos antes da pandemia. Demonstramos a potencial relação custo-benefício de evitar mortes maternas mediante a introdução de LARC. Conclusões. No cenário previsto para o Brasil e o México, os custos do planejamento familiar moderno e dos anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade por ele evitados são modestos. Os governos da América Latina e do Caribe devem considerar a promoção dos LARC como uma intervenção altamente eficiente e custo-efetiva.

5.
Sex Reprod Health Matters ; 28(2): 1833429, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33131452

ABSTRACT

Despite progress in increasing the use of modern contraceptives in most Latin American countries over the last few decades, important challenges remain, including the heavy reliance on out-of-pocket spending to access contraceptives, which may expose consumption to macroeconomic fluctuations. Out-of-pocket spending on contraceptives and/or the proportion of women aged 15-49 who received free contraceptives at a public health facility or as part of statutory health insurance were estimated for 13 Latin American countries using the most recently available household budget surveys and demographic and health or similar household surveys. Data on contraceptive retail sales in 12 countries over the 2006-2010 period and publicly available macroeconomic indicators were used to examine the relationship between changes in sales and macroeconomic indicators using multiple regression models. On average, women aged 15-49 spent close to US$1 per month out-of-pocket on contraceptives. However, almost three out of five women received them free of charge. A 1% increase in the percentage of the population living on less than US$ 3.2/day (2011 PPP values), or the percentage unemployed in the labour force, predicted about a 2% decrease in the growth of contraceptive retail sales (measured in couple-years of protection, CYP, per capita) the subsequent year. The analysis revealed the sensitivity of contraceptive retail sales to changes in macroeconomic variables, particularly changes in poverty levels. Achieving universal access to family planning by 2030 will require improving contraceptive financing schemes.


Subject(s)
Commerce/trends , Contraception/economics , Contraceptive Agents/economics , Health Expenditures/trends , Adolescent , Adult , Economics , Female , Humans , Latin America , Middle Aged , Regression Analysis , Young Adult
6.
Rev. panam. salud pública ; 32(6): 457-463, Dec. 2012. tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS | ID: lil-662925

ABSTRACT

América Latina está incorporando regulaciones que incidan en el costo y el gasto en medicamentos. Sus objetivos centrales son cuatro: i) garantizar la competitividad en el mercado, ii) asegurar precios asequibles a los consumidores individuales (canal comercial), iii) contener el gasto público en medicamentos (canal institucional) y iv) garantizar la eficiencia del gasto en medicamentos. La experiencia de América Latina difiere de la de los países de regiones desarrolladas. En estas últimas los países tienden a converger en sus políticas, tanto en la promoción de medicamentos genéricos y estrategias de control de precios, como en las medidas de racionalización y contención del gasto farmacéutico. En contraste, en América Latina ciertas debilidades institucionales impiden la consolidación y aplicación de una política regulatoria efectiva. El presente trabajo revisa la experiencia acumulada en la adopción de regulaciones económicas dirigidas a reducir el gasto y mejorar el acceso a los medicamentos, postula lecciones aprendidas a nivel internacional y ofrece recomendaciones para los países de América Latina. Su propósito es aportar elementos clave para los decisores de política y las autoridades de los países interesados en llevar adelante la regulación económica de medicamentos.


Latin America is adopting regulations that bear on medicinal costs and spending. The regulations have four main goals: i) to guarantee a competitive market, ii) to ensure affordability for individual consumers (commercial channel), iii) to contain public spending on medicines (institutional channel), and iv) to guarantee efficient spending on medicines. The experience of Latin America differs from that of countries in developed regions. In the latter, the countries tend to have similar policies, both in promoting generic medicines and in price control strategies, and in optimizing and containing pharmaceutical expense. In contrast, in Latin America, certain institutional weaknesses impede the consolidation and application of an effective regulatory policy. This paper reviews the experience gained through the adoption of economic regulations aimed at reducing spending and improving access to medicines, suggests lessons learned at the international level, and offers recommendations for the countries of Latin America. Its purpose is to offer key elements to decision-makers and the authorities of the countries concerned in pursuing economic regulation of medicines.


Subject(s)
Humans , Pharmaceutical Preparations/economics , Pharmaceutical Preparations/supply & distribution , Guidelines as Topic , Health Policy , Latin America , Legislation, Drug
7.
Rev Panam Salud Publica ; 32(6): 457-63, 2012 Dec.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23370190

ABSTRACT

Latin America is adopting regulations that bear on medicinal costs and spending. The regulations have four main goals: i) to guarantee a competitive market, ii) to ensure affordability for individual consumers (commercial channel), iii) to contain public spending on medicines (institutional channel), and iv) to guarantee efficient spending on medicines. The experience of Latin America differs from that of countries in developed regions. In the latter, the countries tend to have similar policies, both in promoting generic medicines and in price control strategies, and in optimizing and containing pharmaceutical expense. In contrast, in Latin America, certain institutional weaknesses impede the consolidation and application of an effective regulatory policy. This paper reviews the experience gained through the adoption of economic regulations aimed at reducing spending and improving access to medicines, suggests lessons learned at the international level, and offers recommendations for the countries of Latin America. Its purpose is to offer key elements to decision-makers and the authorities of the countries concerned in pursuing economic regulation of medicines.


Subject(s)
Pharmaceutical Preparations/economics , Pharmaceutical Preparations/supply & distribution , Guidelines as Topic , Health Policy , Humans , Latin America , Legislation, Drug
9.
Salud Publica Mex ; 50 Suppl 4: S463-9, 2008.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19082257

ABSTRACT

Drug supply strategies have not been widely included in Latin American health reform programs. National efforts, when they have included such strategies, have focused on supporting drug availability for inpatient treatment and, in some cases, for ambulatory treatment of low prevalence and high-cost diseases. Nevertheless, some innovative drug supply programs for primary health care have been implemented in many countries. This article reviews and systematizes recent experiences with the supply of drugs in Latin American countries. Firstly, this article analyzes four phases of the cycle for managing drugs: selection, procurement, distribution, and use, and; secondly, it identifies lessons learned and some characteristics of efficient drug supply systems. Conclusions emphasize experiences which have not only achieved supply at low costs, but also have increased the productivity, efficiency, and effectiveness of primary health care, improved prescriptions, and strengthened the network.


Subject(s)
Pharmaceutical Preparations/supply & distribution , Primary Health Care , Drug Costs , Drug Utilization , Health Policy , Health Services Accessibility , Latin America , Models, Theoretical , Pharmaceutical Preparations/economics
10.
Rev Panam Salud Publica ; 23(1): 59-67, 2008 Jan.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18291074

ABSTRACT

In terms of economics, implementing generic drug policy is nothing other than consolidating (or even, creating) drug markets that set competitive prices, the result of which favors public access to essential drugs. This article approaches the topic of generic drugs from the economic perspective by examining various regulatory models in order to evaluate and leverage generic drug policy implementation options as a mechanism for battling some of the markets' specific weaknesses. The conclusion is that there is no single unequivocal method for promoting the use of generic drugs, and that the most favorable way to integrate markets may be through a broad combination of alternatives. These alternatives are grouped and analyzed according to the market issues or challenges that must be overcome. Several options are then identified based on the degree of market consolidation to be obtained.


Subject(s)
Drugs, Generic/economics , Drug Prescriptions , Drugs, Generic/therapeutic use , Economic Competition , Health Policy , Humans , Latin America , Marketing/economics
11.
Rev. panam. salud pública ; 23(1): 59-67, ene. 2008.
Article in Spanish | LILACS | ID: lil-478912

ABSTRACT

In terms of economics, implementing generic drug policy is nothing other than consolidating (or even, creating) drug markets that set competitive prices, the result of which favors public access to essential drugs. This article approaches the topic of generic drugs from the economic perspective by examining various regulatory models in order to evaluate and leverage generic drug policy implementation options as a mechanism for battling some of the markets’ specific weaknesses. The conclusion is that there is no single unequivocal method for promoting the use of generic drugs, and that the most favorable way to integrate markets may be through a broad combination of alternatives. These alternatives are grouped and analyzed according to the market issues or challenges that must be overcome. Several options are then identified based on the degree of market consolidation to be obtained.


Subject(s)
Humans , Drugs, Generic/economics , Drug Prescriptions , Drugs, Generic/therapeutic use , Economic Competition , Health Policy , Latin America , Marketing/economics
13.
Salud pública Méx ; 50(supl.4): s463-s469, 2008.
Article in Spanish | LILACS | ID: lil-500420

ABSTRACT

En las reformas de salud que se llevaron a cabo en América Latina, la provisión de medicamentos no adquirió protagonismo. Cuando fue incluida, se dio prioridad a los medicamentos para internación, así como para enfermedades de baja prevalencia y alto costo. Sin embargo, en los últimos años un conjunto de programas han realizado innovaciones en la gestión de suministros para el primer nivel de atención. Aquí se abordan estas experiencias en América Latina, primero analizándolas a través de cuatro momentos del ciclo de gestión de medicamentos: selección, compra, distribución y utilización. Después, se busca identificar las lecciones aprendidas y las condiciones de un buen sistema de provisión. Las conclusiones destacan experiencias que lograron no sólo disponibilidad a costos bajos, sino también aumentos en la productividad y resolutividad del primer nivel, además de mejoras en la prescripción y el fortalecimiento del funcionamiento en red.


Drug supply strategies have not been widely included in Latin American health reform programs. National efforts, when they have included such strategies, have focused on supporting drug availability for inpatient treatment and, in some cases, for ambulatory treatment of low prevalence and high-cost diseases. Nevertheless, some innovative drug supply programs for primary health care have been implemented in many countries. This article reviews and systematizes recent experiences with the supply of drugs in Latin American countries. Firstly, this article analyzes four phases of the cycle for managing drugs: selection, procurement, distribution, and use, and; secondly, it identifies lessons learned and some characteristics of efficient drug supply systems. Conclusions emphasize experiences which have not only achieved supply at low costs, but also have increased the productivity, efficiency, and effectiveness of primary health care, improved prescriptions, and strengthened the network.


Subject(s)
Pharmaceutical Preparations/supply & distribution , Primary Health Care , Drug Costs , Drug Utilization , Health Policy , Health Services Accessibility , Latin America , Models, Theoretical , Pharmaceutical Preparations/economics
14.
15.
Buenos Aires; OPS; 2006.
in Spanish | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-18538

ABSTRACT

[Prólogo]: La descentralización del sector salud ha introducido nuevos desafíos en el control de las enfermedades transmisibles. En gran medida ello se debe a que el escenario donde se desarrollan los programas de control se ha modifi cado considerablemente a lo largo de los últimos veinte años. En este lapso la gran mayoría de los países de América Latina y el Caribe reformaron sus sistemas de salud, en general como parte de la reforma del Estado, y esas reformas han tendido a promover la descentralización de las acciones y los programas de salud hacia las esferas locales de gobierno (estados y municipios). Las reformas de los sistemas de salud en general, y la descentralización de programas y servicios en particular, provocaron en casi todos los países una situación que podría denominarse de verdadera destrucción creadora, cuyas consecuencias es preciso evaluar [...] Sobre la base de estas consideraciones, la Universidad de Buenos Aires, junto con la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), organizó una Reunión sobre Descentralización y Gestión de los Programas para el Control de las Enfermedades Transmisibles en América Latina y el Caribe, cuyos resultados se presentan en este libro. La reunión se llevó a cabo en la sede del Instituto Panamericano de Protección de Alimentos y Zoonosis (INPPAZ), en Martínez (Provincia de Buenos Aires), República Argentina, del 29 al 31 de agosto de 2005.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Politics , Health Systems , Chagas Disease , Tuberculosis , Malaria , Leprosy , Latin America
16.
Rev. adm. pública ; 39(3): 595-612, maio-jun. 2005. tab
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: lil-423109

ABSTRACT

Este artigo apresenta a experiência inovadora de reorganização dos serviços sociais implementada pela Secretaria de Assistência Social da cidade de São Paulo a partir de 2002. A partir do "triângulo estratégico" postulado por Mark Moore e da "teoria do negócio" desenvolvida por Peter Drucker, o artigo analisa os aspectos envolvidos nas gestões política, programática e operacional da assistência social. Nos três níveis de gestão foram registrados empreendimentos inovadores que estabeleceram uma lógica sinérgica.


Subject(s)
Public Policy , Mentoring
20.
Buenos Aires; ISALUD; 2004. 498 p. graf.
Monography in Spanish | LILACS-Express | BINACIS | ID: biblio-1215833
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