Prediction of post-acute care demand in medical and neurological inpatients: diagnostic assessment of the post-acute discharge score - a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients requiring transfer to post-acute care (PAC) facilities shortens hospital stays. With a focus on interprofessional assessment of biopsychosocial risk, this study's aim was to assess medical and neurological patients' post-acute care discharge (PACD) scores on days 1 and 3 after hospital admission regarding diagnostic accuracy and effectiveness as an early screening tool. The transfer to PAC facilities served as the outcome ("gold standard"). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, registered at ClinicalTrial.gov (NCT01768494) on January 2013, 1432 medical and 464 neurological patients (total n = 1896) were included consecutively between February and October 2013. PACD scores and other relevant data were extracted from electronic records of patient admissions, hospital stays, and interviews at day 30 post-hospital admission. To gauge the scores' accuracy, we plotted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calculated area under the curve (AUC), and determined sensitivity and specificity at various cut-off levels. RESULTS: Medical patients' day 1 and day 3 PACD scores accurately predicted discharge to PAC facilities, with respective discriminating powers (AUC) of 0.77 and 0.82. With a PACD cut-off of ≥8 points, day 1 and 3 sensitivities were respectively 72.6% and 83.6%, with respective specificities of 66.5% and 70.0%. Neurological patients' scores showed lower accuracy both days: using the same cut-off, respective day 1 and day 3 AUCs were 0.68 and 0.78, sensitivities 41.4% and 68.7% and specificities 81.4% and 83.4%. CONCLUSION: PACD scores at days 1 and 3 accurately predicted transfer to PAC facilities, especially in medical patients on day 3. To confirm and refine these results, PACD scores' value to guide discharge planning interventions and subsequent impact on hospital stay warrants further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinialTrials.gov Identifier, NCT01768494 .

Performance of the Manchester Triage System in Adult Medical Emergency Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate initial patient triage in the emergency department (ED) is pivotal in reducing time to effective treatment by the medical team and in expediting patient flow. The Manchester Triage System (MTS) is widely implemented for this purpose. Yet the overall effectiveness of its performance remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the ability of MTS to accurately assess high treatment priority and to predict adverse clinical outcomes in a large unselected population of medical ED patients. METHODS: We prospectively followed consecutive medical patients seeking ED care for 30 days. Triage nurses implemented MTS upon arrival of patients admitted to the ED. The primary endpoint was high initial treatment priority adjudicated by two independent physicians. Secondary endpoints were 30-day all-cause mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and length of stay. We used regression models with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. RESULTS: Of the 2407 patients, 524 (21.8%) included patients (60.5 years, 55.7% males) who were classified as high treatment priority; 3.9% (n = 93) were transferred to the ICU; and 5.7% (n = 136) died. The initial MTS showed fair prognostic accuracy in predicting treatment priority (AUC 0.71) and ICU admission (AUC 0.68), but not in predicting mortality (AUC 0.55). Results were robust across most predefined subgroups, including patients diagnosed with infections, or cardiovascular or gastrointestinal diseases. In the subgroup of neurological symptoms and disorders, the MTS showed the best performance. CONCLUSION: The MTS showed fair performance in predicting high treatment priority and adverse clinical outcomes across different medical ED patient populations. Future research should focus on further refinement of the MTS so that its performance can be improved. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01768494.