ABSTRACT
Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.
Subject(s)
Cacao/growth & development , Climate Change , Crops, Agricultural/growth & development , Ecosystem , Seasons , Temperature , BrazilABSTRACT
O objetivo deste artigo é contribuir com o debate acerca do desmatamento no contexto da evolução das políticas de gestão fundiária e territorial na Amazônia, destacando seu papel relevante para o reconhecimento de direitos políticos de categorias sociais minoritárias. A associação do desmatamento na Amazônia sempre esteve correlacionada a problemas sociais e envolve diferentes agentes e fatores causadores conforme a área de abrangência e o momento de sua realização. Procuram-se evidenciar alguns dos principais fatores institucionais que contribuem para pôr em xeque as conquistas do modelo socioambiental por meio de um estudo de caso no assentamento rural categoria Projeto Agroextrativista Praialta-Piranheira, Pará. Essa análise permite concluir que a falta de coerência institucional representa um aspecto estrutural cujo desconhecimento incapacita a compreensão das dinâmicas territoriais da Amazônia.
The objective of this paper is to analyze the driving forces of deforestation in the context of the evolution of land use and land management policies, emphasizing their role in the recognition of political rights of minority social groups. The underlying causes of deforestation in the Amazon have always been correlated with social problems and the use of labor in conditions similar to slavery. Such dynamics involves different agents and causative factors embedded in a complex web of historical factors, political forces and economic cycles. This paper emphasizes some of the leading institutional factors that contribute to understanding the achievements of the social-environmental model by means of a case study in the rural settlement "Projeto Agroextrativista Praialta-Piranheira", in Pará, Brazil. This analysis allowed us to conclude that the lack of institutional coherence is a structural aspect that hinders a better context-driven understanding of the territorial dynamics of Amazonia.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Public Policy , Rural Population , Territoriality , Conservation of Natural Resources , Environment , Land Management and PlanningABSTRACT
A SOCIEDADE brasileira recebe, anualmente, a estimativa de perda de floresta na Amazônia por meio da taxa de desflorestamento divulgada pelo Inpe, a qual, em 2004, foi de aproximadamente 26.130 km² . O que não se conhece é o quanto de recursos naturais se perde a cada quilômetro quadrado de floresta destruída. Neste trabalho, apresentamos números concretos desta perda, baseados em estudos recentes sobre a densidade de plantas e de alguns grupos de animais na Amazônia. Com base nisso, defendemos a idéia de que não há necessidade de se ampliar o desflorestamento na região e que, portanto, qualquer licença de desmatamento deveria ser proibida na Amazônia. Sugerimos também que o sistema de ciência e tecnologia regional deve ser descentralizado através do desenvolvimento de programas de pesquisa integrados, focalizados no desenho e no teste de modelos de territórios sustentáveis para os diferentes setores da região.
