On the stratospheric chemistry of midlatitude wildfire smoke.

SignificanceLarge wildfires have been observed to inject smoke into the stratosphere, raising questions about their potential to affect the stratospheric ozone layer that protects life on Earth from biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation. Multiple observations of aerosol and NO2 concentrations from three independent satellite instruments are used here together with model calculations to identify decreases in stratospheric NO2 concentrations following major Australian 2019 through 2020 wildfires. The data confirm that important chemistry did occur on the smoke particle surfaces. The observed behavior in NO2 with increasing particle concentrations is a marker for surface chemistry that contributes to midlatitude ozone depletion. The results indicate that increasing wildfire activity in a warming world may slow the recovery of the ozone layer.

Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection.

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia-underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Toward practical stratospheric aerosol albedo modification: Solar-powered lofting.

Many climate intervention (CI) methods have been proposed to offset greenhouse gas-induced global warming, but the practicalities regarding implementation have not received sufficient attention. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) involves introducing large amounts of CI material well within the stratosphere to enhance the aerosol loading, thereby increasing reflection of solar radiation. We explore a delivery method termed solar-powered lofting (SPL) that uses solar energy to loft CI material injected at lower altitudes accessible by conventional aircraft. Particles that absorb solar radiation are dispersed with the CI material and heat the surrounding air. The heated air rises, carrying the CI material to the stratosphere. Global model simulations show that black carbon aerosol (10 microgram per cubic meter) is sufficient to quickly loft CI material well into the stratosphere. SPL could make SAI viable at present, is also more energy efficient, and disperses CI material faster than direct stratospheric injection.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

Persisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical properties.

Volcanic ash is often neglected in climate simulations because ash particles are assumed to have a short atmospheric lifetime, and to not participate in sulfur chemistry. After the Mt. Kelut eruption in 2014, stratospheric ash-rich aerosols were observed for months. Here we show that the persistence of super-micron ash is consistent with a density near 0.5 g cm-3, close to pumice. Ash-rich particles dominate the volcanic cloud optical properties for the first 60 days. We also find that the initial SO2 lifetime is determined by SO2 uptake on ash, rather than by reaction with OH as commonly assumed. About 43% more volcanic sulfur is removed from the stratosphere in 2 months with the SO2 heterogeneous chemistry on ash particles than without. This research suggests the need for re-evaluation of factors controlling SO2 lifetime in climate model simulations, and of the impact of volcanic ash on stratospheric chemistry and radiation.

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security.

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe.

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume.

In 2017, western Canadian wildfires injected smoke into the stratosphere that was detectable by satellites for more than 8 months. The smoke plume rose from 12 to 23 kilometers within 2 months owing to solar heating of black carbon, extending the lifetime and latitudinal spread. Comparisons of model simulations to the rate of observed lofting indicate that 2% of the smoke mass was black carbon. The observed smoke lifetime in the stratosphere was 40% shorter than calculated with a standard model that does not consider photochemical loss of organic carbon. Photochemistry is represented by using an empirical ozone-organics reaction probability that matches the observed smoke decay. The observed rapid plume rise, latitudinal spread, and photochemical reactions provide new insights into potential global climate impacts from nuclear war.

Efficient In-Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection.

Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10-1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere. A modified transport scheme, which considers aerosol activation from entrained air above the cloud base and aerosol-cloud interaction associated with convection, dramatically improves model agreement with in situ measurements suggesting that deep convection can efficiently remove primary aerosols. We suggest that models that fail to consider secondary activation may overestimate black carbon's radiative forcing by a factor of 2.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (∼15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (∼35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Surface dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire simulated by a sectional aerosol model.

The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number, and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple-airborne in situ measurements. Simulations suggest that Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m-2 per unit aerosol optical depth in the midvisible at 13:00-15:00 local time. Underestimation of simulated smoke single scattering albedo at midvisible by 0.04 suggests that the model overestimates either the particle size or the absorption due to black carbon. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with 1° resolution with overall good skill, although that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region.

Composition and physical properties of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer and the North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer.

Recent studies revealed layers of enhanced aerosol scattering in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over Asia (Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)) and North America (North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer (NATAL)). We use a sectional aerosol model (Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA)) coupled with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) to explore the composition and optical properties of these aerosol layers. The observed aerosol extinction enhancement is reproduced by CESM1/CARMA. Both model and observations indicate a strong gradient of the sulfur-to-carbon ratio from Europe to the Asia on constant pressure surfaces. We found that the ATAL is mostly composed of sulfates, surface-emitted organics, and secondary organics; the NATAL is mostly composed of sulfates and secondary organics. The model also suggests that emission increases in Asia between 2000 and 2010 led to an increase of aerosol optical depth of the ATAL by 0.002 on average which is consistent with observations. KEY POINTS: The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer is composed of sulfate, primary organics, and secondary organics The North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer is mostly composed of sulfate and secondary organics Aerosol Optical Depth of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer increases by 0.002 from 2000 to 2010.

Evaluations of tropospheric aerosol properties simulated by the community earth system model with a sectional aerosol microphysics scheme.

A sectional aerosol model (CARMA) has been developed and coupled with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Aerosol microphysics, radiative properties, and interactions with clouds are simulated in the size-resolving model. The model described here uses 20 particle size bins for each aerosol component including freshly nucleated sulfate particles, as well as mixed particles containing sulfate, primary organics, black carbon, dust, and sea salt. The model also includes five types of bulk secondary organic aerosols with four volatility bins. The overall cost of CESM1-CARMA is approximately ∼2.6 times as much computer time as the standard three-mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1-MAM3) and twice as much computer time as the seven-mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1-MAM7) using similar gas phase chemistry codes. Aerosol spatial-temporal distributions are simulated and compared with a large set of observations from satellites, ground-based measurements, and airborne field campaigns. Simulated annual average aerosol optical depths are lower than MODIS/MISR satellite observations and AERONET observations by ∼32%. This difference is within the uncertainty of the satellite observations. CESM1/CARMA reproduces sulfate aerosol mass within 8%, organic aerosol mass within 20%, and black carbon aerosol mass within 50% compared with a multiyear average of the IMPROVE/EPA data over United States, but differences vary considerably at individual locations. Other data sets show similar levels of comparison with model simulations. The model suggests that in addition to sulfate, organic aerosols also significantly contribute to aerosol mass in the tropical UTLS, which is consistent with limited data.

Ice nucleation and dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer.

Optically thin cirrus near the tropical tropopause regulate the humidity of air entering the stratosphere, which in turn has a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget and climate. Recent high-altitude, unmanned aircraft measurements provide evidence for two distinct classes of cirrus formed in the tropical tropopause region: (i) vertically extensive cirrus with low ice number concentrations, low extinctions, and large supersaturations (up to ∼70%) with respect to ice; and (ii) vertically thin cirrus layers with much higher ice concentrations that effectively deplete the vapor in excess of saturation. The persistent supersaturation in the former class of cirrus is consistent with the long time-scales (several hours or longer) for quenching of vapor in excess of saturation given the low ice concentrations and cold tropical tropopause temperatures. The low-concentration clouds are likely formed on a background population of insoluble particles with concentrations less than 100 L(-1) (often less than 20 L(-1)), whereas the high ice concentration layers (with concentrations up to 10,000 L(-1)) can only be produced by homogeneous freezing of an abundant population of aqueous aerosols. These measurements, along with past high-altitude aircraft measurements, indicate that the low-concentration cirrus occur frequently in the tropical tropopause region, whereas the high-concentration cirrus occur infrequently. The predominance of the low-concentration clouds means cirrus near the tropical tropopause may typically allow entry of air into the stratosphere with as much as ∼1.7 times the ice saturation mixing ratio.

Nitrogen incorporation in CH(4)-N(2) photochemical aerosol produced by far ultraviolet irradiation.

Nitrile incorporation into Titan aerosol accompanying hydrocarbon chemistry is thought to be driven by extreme UV wavelengths (λ<120 nm) or magnetospheric electrons in the outer reaches of the atmosphere. Far UV radiation (120-200 nm), which is transmitted down to the stratosphere of Titan, is expected to affect hydrocarbon chemistry only and not initiate the formation of nitrogenated species. We examined the chemical properties of photochemical aerosol produced at far UV wavelengths, using a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), which allows for elemental analysis of particle-phase products. Our results show that aerosol formed from CH(4)/N(2) photochemistry contains a surprising amount of nitrogen, up to 16% by mass, a result of photolysis in the far UV. The proportion of nitrogenated organics to hydrocarbon species is shown to be correlated with that of N(2) in the irradiated gas. The aerosol mass greatly decreases when N(2) is removed, which indicates that N(2) plays a major role in aerosol production. Because direct dissociation of N(2) is highly improbable given the immeasurably low cross section at the wavelengths studied, the chemical activation of N(2) must occur via another pathway. Any chemical activation of N(2) at wavelengths >120 nm is presently unaccounted for in atmospheric photochemical models. We suggest that reaction with CH radicals produced from CH(4) photolysis may provide a mechanism for incorporating N into the molecular structure of the aerosol. Further work is needed to understand the chemistry involved, as these processes may have significant implications for how we view prebiotic chemistry on early Earth and similar planets.

Potential climatic impact of organic haze on early Earth.

We have explored the direct and indirect radiative effects on climate of organic particles likely to have been present on early Earth by measuring their hygroscopicity and cloud nucleating ability. The early Earth analog aerosol particles were generated via ultraviolet photolysis of an early Earth analog gas mixture, which was designed to mimic possible atmospheric conditions before the rise of oxygen. An analog aerosol for the present-day atmosphere of Saturn's moon Titan was tested for comparison. We exposed the early Earth aerosol to a range of relative humidities (RHs). Water uptake onto the aerosol was observed to occur over the entire RH range tested (RH=80-87%). To translate our measurements of hygroscopicity over a specific range of RHs into their water uptake ability at any RH < 100% and into their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at RH > 100%, we relied on the hygroscopicity parameter κ, developed by Petters and Kreidenweis. We retrieved κ=0.22 ±0.12 for the early Earth aerosol, which indicates that the humidified aerosol (RH < 100 %) could have contributed to a larger antigreenhouse effect on the early Earth atmosphere than previously modeled with dry aerosol. Such effects would have been of significance in regions where the humidity was larger than 50%, because such high humidities are needed for significant amounts of water to be on the aerosol. Additionally, Earth organic aerosol particles could have activated into CCN at reasonable-and even low-water-vapor supersaturations (RH > 100%). In regions where the haze was dominant, it is expected that low particle concentrations, once activated into cloud droplets, would have created short-lived, optically thin clouds. Such clouds, if predominant on early Earth, would have had a lower albedo than clouds today, thereby warming the planet relative to current-day clouds.

The formation of sulfate and elemental sulfur aerosols under varying laboratory conditions: implications for early earth.

The presence of sulfur mass-independent fractionation (S-MIF) in sediments more than 2.45 × 10(9) years old is thought to be evidence for an early anoxic atmosphere. Photolysis of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) by UV light with λ < 220 nm has been shown in models and some initial laboratory studies to create a S-MIF; however, sulfur must leave the atmosphere in at least two chemically different forms to preserve any S-MIF signature. Two commonly cited examples of chemically different sulfur species that could have exited the atmosphere are elemental sulfur (S(8)) and sulfuric acid (H(2)SO(4)) aerosols. Here, we use real-time aerosol mass spectrometry to directly detect the sulfur-containing aerosols formed when SO(2) either photolyzes at wavelengths from 115 to 400 nm, to simulate the UV solar spectrum, or interacts with high-energy electrons, to simulate lightning. We found that sulfur-containing aerosols form under all laboratory conditions. Further, the addition of a reducing gas, in our experiments hydrogen (H(2)) or methane (CH(4)), increased the formation of S(8). With UV photolysis, formation of S(8) aerosols is highly dependent on the initial SO(2) pressure; and S(8) is only formed at a 2% SO(2) mixing ratio and greater in the absence of a reductant, and at a 0.2% SO(2) mixing ratio and greater in the presence of 1000 ppmv CH(4). We also found that organosulfur compounds are formed from the photolysis of CH(4) and moderate amounts of SO(2). The implications for sulfur aerosols on early Earth are discussed. Key Words: S-MIF-Archean atmosphere-Early Earth-Sulfur aerosols.

Reduction in haze formation rate on prebiotic Earth in the presence of hydrogen.

Recent attempts to resolve the faint young Sun paradox have focused on an early Earth atmosphere with elevated levels of the greenhouse gases methane (CH(4)) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) that could have provided adequate warming to Earth's surface. On Titan, the photolysis of CH(4) has been shown to create a thick haze layer that cools its surface. Unlike Titan, however, early Earth's atmosphere likely contained high amounts of CO(2) and hydrogen (H(2)). In this work, we examine haze formation in an early Earth atmosphere composed of CO(2), H(2), N(2), and CH(4), with a CO(2)/CH(4) ratio of 10 and a H(2)/CO(2) ratio of up to 15. To initiate aerosol formation, a broad-spectrum ultraviolet (UV) energy source with emission at Lyman-alpha was used to simulate the solar spectrum. Aerosol composition and total aerosol mass produced as a function of reagent gas were measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Results show an order of magnitude decrease in haze production with the addition of H(2), with no significant change in the chemical composition of the haze. We calculate that the presence of H(2) on early Earth could thus have favored warmer surface temperatures and yet allowed photochemical haze formation to deliver complex organic species to early Earth's surface.