Improving weather forecasting by assimilation of water vapor isotopes.

Stable water isotopes, which depend on meteorology and terrain, are important indicators of global water circulation. During the past 10 years, major advances have been made in general circulation models that include water isotopes, and the understanding of water isotopes has greatly progressed as a result of innovative, improved observation techniques. However, no previous studies have combined modeled and observed isotopes using data assimilation, nor have they investigated the impacts of real observations of isotopes. This is the first study to assimilate real satellite observations of isotopes using a general circulation model, then investigate the impacts on global dynamics and local phenomena. The results showed that assimilating isotope data improved not only the water isotope field but also meteorological variables such as air temperature and wind speed. Furthermore, the forecast skills of these variables were improved by a few percent, compared with a model that did not assimilate isotope observations.

Toward High-Resolution Soil Moisture Monitoring by Combining Active-Passive Microwave and Optical Vegetation Remote Sensing Products with Land Surface Model.

The assimilation of radiometer and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is a promising recent technique to downscale soil moisture products, yet it requires land surface parameters and meteorological forcing data at a high spatial resolution. In this study, we propose a new downscaling approach, named integrated passive and active downscaling (I-PAD), to achieve high spatial and temporal resolution soil moisture datasets over regions without detailed soil data. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and Phased Array-type L-band SAR (PALSAR) data are combined through a dual-pass land data assimilation system to obtain soil moisture at 1 km resolution. In the first step, fine resolution model parameters are optimized based on fine resolution PALSAR soil moisture and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index data, and coarse resolution AMSR-E brightness temperature data. Then, the 25 km AMSR-E observations are assimilated into a land surface model at 1 km resolution with a simple but computationally low-cost algorithm that considers the spatial resolution difference. Precipitation data are used as the only inputs from ground measurements. The evaluations at the two lightly vegetated sites in Mongolia and the Little Washita basin show that the time series of soil moisture are improved at most of the observation by the assimilation scheme. The analyses reveal that I-PAD can capture overall spatial trends of soil moisture within the coarse resolution radiometer footprints, demonstrating the potential of the algorithm to be applied over data-sparse regions. The capability and limitation are discussed based on the simple optimization and assimilation schemes used in the algorithm.

Evaluation of physical parameterizations for atmospheric river induced precipitation and application to long-term reconstruction based on three reanalysis datasets in Western Oregon.

Dynamically downscaled precipitation is often used for evaluating sub-daily precipitation behavior on a watershed-scale and for the input to hydrological modeling because of its increasing accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution. Despite these advantages, physical parameterizations in regional models and systematic biases due to the dataset used for boundary conditions greatly influence the quality of downscaled precipitation data. The present paper aims to evaluate the performance and the sensitivities of physical parameterizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the Willamette watershed in Oregon. Also investigated was whether the optimized WRF configuration for extreme events can be used for long-term reconstruction using different boundary condition datasets. Three reanalysis datasets, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which have different spatial resolutions and dataset periods, were used to simulate precipitation at 4 km resolution. Sensitivity analyses showed that AR precipitation is most sensitive to the microphysics parameterization. Among 13 microphysics schemes investigated, the Goddard and the Stony-Brook University schemes performed the best regardless of the choice of reanalysis. Reconstructed historical precipitation with the optimized configuration showed better accuracies during the wet season than the dry season. With respect to simulations with CFSR, it was found that the optimized configuration for AR precipitation can be used for long-term reconstruction with small biases. However, systematic biases in the reanalysis datasets may still lead to uncertainties in downscaling precipitation in a different season with a single configuration.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system.