Growth Rate and Acceleration Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Reveals the Effect of Public Health Measures in Real Time.

Background: Ending the COVID-19 pandemic is arguably one of the most prominent challenges in recent human history. Following closely the growth dynamics of the disease is one of the pillars toward achieving that goal. Objective: We aimed at developing a simple framework to facilitate the analysis of the growth rate (cases/day) and growth acceleration (cases/day2) of COVID-19 cases in real-time. Methods: The framework was built using the Moving Regression (MR) technique and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The dynamics of the pandemic was initially modeled via combinations of four different growth stages: lagging (beginning of the outbreak), exponential (rapid growth), deceleration (growth decay), and stationary (near zero growth). A fifth growth behavior, namely linear growth (constant growth above zero), was further introduced to add more flexibility to the framework. An R Shiny application was developed, which can be accessed at https://theguarani.com.br/ or downloaded from https://github.com/adamtaiti/SARS-CoV-2. The framework was applied to data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which comprised 3,722,128 cases reported worldwide as of May 8th 2020. Results: We found that the impact of public health measures on the prevalence of COVID-19 could be perceived in seemingly real-time by monitoring growth acceleration curves. Restriction to human mobility produced detectable decline in growth acceleration within 1 week, deceleration within ~2 weeks and near-stationary growth within ~6 weeks. Countries exhibiting different permutations of the five growth stages indicated that the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence is more complex and dynamic than previously appreciated. Conclusions: These results corroborate that mass social isolation is a highly effective measure against the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2, as previously suggested. Apart from the analysis of prevalence partitioned by country, the proposed framework is easily applicable to city, state, region and arbitrary territory data, serving as an asset to monitor the local behavior of COVID-19 cases.

Association of Copy Number Variation at Intron 3 of HMGA2 With Navel Length in Bos indicus.

Navel injuries caused by friction against the pasture can promote infection, reproductive problems and costly treatments in beef cattle raised in extensive systems. A haplotype-based genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed for visual scores of navel length at yearling in Nellore cattle (Bos indicus) using data from 2,016 animals and 503,088 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The strongest signal (p = 1.01 × 10-9) was found on chromosome 5 spanning positions 47.9-48.2 Mbp. This region contains introns 3 and 4 and exons 4 and 5 of the high mobility group AT-hook 2 gene (HMGA2). Further inspection of the region with whole genome sequence data of 21 Nellore bulls revealed correlations between counts of the significant haplotype and copy number gains of a ∼6.2 kbp segment of intron 3 of HMGA2. Analysis of genome sequences from five African B. indicus and four European Bos taurus breeds revealed that the copy number variant (CNV) is indicine-specific. This intronic CNV was then validated through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) using Angus animals as copy neutral controls. Importantly, the CNV was not detectable by means of conventional SNP-based GWAS or SNP probe intensity analyses. Given that HMGA2 affects the expression of the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2) together with the pleomorphic adenoma gene 1 (PLAG1), and that the latter has been repeatedly shown to be associated with quantitative traits of economic importance in cattle, these findings highlight the emerging role of variants impacting the insulin-like growth factor pathway to cattle breeding.

Systemic oxidative stress in Suffolk and Santa Ines sheep experimentally infected with Haemonchus contortus.

The mechanisms responsible for the imbalance between oxidants and antioxidants in sheep infected with Haemonchus contortus are not well established. This study aimed to prove the hypothesis that oxidative stress occurring during infection by H. contortus varies according to breed, and that the parasite burden correlates with hypoalbuminaemia and anaemia. Thus, after deworming and confirming the absence of infection, two different sheep breeds, Suffolk (n = 15) and Santa Ines (n = 22), were orally inoculated with a single dose of 5,000 L3 of H. contortus. The egg counts per gram of faeces (EPG), packed cell volume (PCV) and concentrations of several plasma markers of oxidative stress (lipid peroxidation, albumin, uric acid, total bilirubin, total antioxidant capacity [TAC], total oxidant concentration [TOC] and the oxidative stress index [OSI]) were quantified before (control group) and during the experimental infection (28, 34 and 42 days post-inoculation). In both breeds, TOC increased at 28 days and TAC increased at 42 days. In Suffolk sheep, there was a positive correlation of EPG with oxidant components (28 days) and a negative correlation of EPG with PCV (42 days). In Santa Ines sheep, there was a positive correlation of EPG with bilirubin (r = 0.492; p = 0.020). H. contortus infection caused oxidative stress, which varied according to the breed. Parasite burden was not associated with hypoalbuminaemia, whereas there was a negative correlation with PCV. This research provides the first evidence that the antioxidant status contributes more to the resilience to H. contortus in Santa Ines sheep compared to Suffolk sheep.

A PLAG1 mutation contributed to stature recovery in modern cattle.

The recent evolution of cattle is marked by fluctuations in body size. Height in the Bos taurus lineage was reduced by a factor of ~1.5 from the Neolithic to the Middle Ages, and increased again only during the Early Modern Ages. Using haplotype analysis, we found evidence that the bovine PLAG1 mutation (Q) with major effects on body size, weight and reproduction is a >1,000 years old derived allele that increased rapidly in frequency in Northwestern European B. taurus between the 16th and 18th centuries. Towards the 19th and 20th centuries, Q was introgressed into non-European B. taurus and Bos indicus breeds. These data implicate a major role of Q in recent changes in body size in modern cattle, and represent one of the first examples of a genomic sweep in livestock that was driven by selection on a complex trait.

Prediction of lymph node parasite load from clinical data in dogs with leishmaniasis: An application of radial basis artificial neural networks.

Quantification of Leishmania infantum load via real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in lymph node aspirates is an accurate tool for diagnostics, surveillance and therapeutics follow-up in dogs with leishmaniasis. However, qPCR requires infrastructure and technical training that is not always available commercially or in public services. Here, we used a machine learning technique, namely Radial Basis Artificial Neural Network, to assess whether parasite load could be learned from clinical data (serological test, biochemical markers and physical signs). By comparing 18 different combinations of input clinical data, we found that parasite load can be accurately predicted using a relatively small reference set of 35 naturally infected dogs and 20 controls. In the best case scenario (use of all clinical data), predictions presented no bias or inflation and an accuracy (i.e., correlation between true and predicted values) of 0.869, corresponding to an average error of ±38.2 parasites per unit of volume. We conclude that reasonable estimates of L. infantum load from lymph node aspirates can be obtained from clinical records when qPCR services are not available.