ABSTRACT
Lake Urmia, located in the North West of Iran, was once the most extensive permanent hypersaline lake in the world. Unsustainable water management in response to increasing demand together with climatic extremes have given rise to the lake's depletion during the last two decades. The Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) was established in 2013 and aims to restore the lake within a 10-year program. This study aims to monitor these restoration endeavours using spaceborne and ground-based observations. We analyzed the in-situ water level, the surface water extent, and the water volume of the lake. The water storage change of the Urmia Lake catchment is quantified using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On satellite observations, which gives us a holistic view of hydrological components. Our analysis shows a positive trend of 14.5 cm/yr, 204 km2/yr, and 0.42 km3/yr in the time series of lake water level, lake water area, and water volume from 2015 to 2019 which indicates a short-lived stabilization of Lake Urmia. This has been achieved mainly due to an increase of 0.35 km3/yr in inflow from rivers to the lake, predominantly driven by anomalous precipitation events in 2016 and early 2019. However, the long-term trend from 2003 to 2019 still shows negative values of -22 cm/yr, -200 km2/yr, and -0.72 km3/yr for the water level, the surface area, and the water volume of the lake, respectively. The stabilization seems to be fragile however, since most of the increase in the water volume of the lake has spread over the large shallow southern region with high evaporation potential during hot seasons. Furthermore, due to the high correlation between the lake water level and precipitation, the recovery observed in 2016 and the first half of 2019 might not continue in case of a long drought period.
ABSTRACT
The hydrology of the Third Pole, Asia's freshwater tower, has shown considerable sensitivity to the impacts of climate change and human interventions, which affect the headwaters of many rivers that originate therein. For example, the Yangtze River has its basin (YRB) experiencing wetness of terrestrial water storage (TWS), whose rainfall seems to be the primary source as inferred from the previous studies. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the contributions of each TWS's sub-domain - i.e., groundwater (GWS); total water content (TWC) stored as soil moisture, ice/snow, and canopy; and the surface water (SWS) storages - on YRB's wetness. Hence, SWS, from altimetry and imagery satellites, and TWC, from Global Land Data Assimilation System, are inverted considering the same basis function as for TWS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, which account for the differences in the resolutions inherent in each product. Furthermore, a "tie-in" signal approach is used to fit the temporal patterns of GWS, TWC, and SWS to TWS (i.e., the observations). Results show improvements in the reconstructed GWS series concerning standard deviation, correlation coefficient, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 22%, 27%, and 120%, respectively, regarding the use of the TWS-budget equation. The reconstructed time series of GWS, TWC, and SWS present an increase of 1.76, 2.69, and 0.14 mm per year (mm/yr) and that YRB loses water stored at its aquifers 55% of the time (regarding 2003-2016 period) based on the quantile function of storage (QFS). The QFS's slope shows that TWS has a fast and small storage potential w.r.t. GWS since inland waters and soil moisture reflect the dryness impacting TWS first. Despite the evidence of an increase of 19.05 mm/yr in annual precipitation, which seems to explain the bulk in TWS, further investigation to characterize controls on TWS memory within YRB is still necessary.
