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2.
Anesth Analg ; 134(4): 751-764, 2022 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34962902

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dysregulation of immune responses to surgical stress in older patients and those with frailty may manifest as differences in inflammatory biomarkers. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine differences in perioperative inflammatory biomarkers between older and younger patients, and between patients with and without frailty. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and CINAHL databases were searched (Inception to June 23, 2020). Observational or experimental studies reporting the perioperative level or activity of biomarkers in surgical patients stratified by age or frailty status were included. The primary outcome was inflammatory biomarkers (grouped by window of ascertainment: pre-op; post-op: <12 hours, 12-24 hours, 1-3 days, 3 days to 1 week, and >1 week). Quality assessment was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Inverse-variance, random-effects meta-analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Forty-five studies (4263 patients) were included in the review, of which 36 were pooled for meta-analysis (28 noncardiac and 8 cardiac studies). Two studies investigated frailty as the exposure, while the remaining investigated age. In noncardiac studies, older patients had higher preoperative levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP), lower preoperative levels of lymphocytes, and higher postoperative levels of IL-6 (<12 hours) and CRP (12-24 hours) than younger patients. In cardiac studies, older patients had higher preoperative levels of IL-6 and CRP and higher postoperative levels of IL-6 (<12 hours and >1 week). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate a paucity of frailty-specific studies; however, the presence of age-associated differences in the perioperative inflammatory response is consistent with age-associated states of chronic systemic inflammation and immunosenescence. Additional studies assessing frailty-specific changes in the systemic biologic response to surgery may inform the development of targeted interventions.


Subject(s)
Frailty , Aged , Biomarkers , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , Frailty/diagnosis , Humans , Inflammation/diagnosis , Interleukin-6
3.
Trials ; 22(1): 384, 2021 Jun 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34098992

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent adverse event after thoracic surgery with associated morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. It has been shown to be preventable with prophylactic amiodarone, which is only recommended in high-risk individuals due to the potential associated side effects. Risk factors for POAF have been identified and incorporated into a prediction model to identify high-risk patients. Further evaluation in the form of a multicenter clinical trial is required to assess the effectiveness of prophylaxis specifically in this high-risk population. The feasibility of such a trial first needs to be assessed. METHODS: The PREP-AF trial is a double-blind randomized controlled feasibility trial. Individuals undergoing major thoracic surgery who are identified to be high-risk by the POAF prediction model will be randomized 1:1 to receive a short course of amiodarone vs. placebo in the immediate postoperative period. The primary outcome is feasibility, which will be measured by the number of eligible patients identified, consented, and randomized; intervention adherence; and measurement of future outcomes of a full trial. DISCUSSION: This study will determine the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of prophylactic amiodarone, in high-risk patients undergoing major thoracic surgery. This will inform the development of a multi-center trial to establish if prophylactic amiodarone is safe and effective at reducing the incidence of POAF. Preventing this adverse event will not only improve outcomes for patients but also reduce the associated health resource utilization and costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04392921 . Registered on 19 May 2020.


Subject(s)
Amiodarone , Atrial Fibrillation , Amiodarone/adverse effects , Anti-Arrhythmia Agents/therapeutic use , Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis , Atrial Fibrillation/etiology , Atrial Fibrillation/prevention & control , Feasibility Studies , Humans , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Postoperative Complications/drug therapy , Postoperative Complications/etiology , Postoperative Complications/prevention & control , Postoperative Period , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
5.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33059571

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Vietnam is relatively low compared to other Asian countries, but it is accelerating with the economic and cultural transition. This study aimed to estimate the current prevalence and clinical profile of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in a tertiary hospital in the south of Vietnam. METHODS: A cross-sectional investigation was conducted to recruit 1, 250 participants, who were at least 18 year-old and randomly sampled from Cho Ray Hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Fasting plasma glucose concentration and HbA1c were measured for each individual. The American Diabetes Association criteria were used to diagnose diabetes. Demographic data and other clinical characteristics of diabetes were also documented, including age, sex, residence, educational status, weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, familial history of diabetes, and lipid profile. RESULTS: The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus was 7.5% in the population studied. Age, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, body mass index, and hypertension, as well as dyslipidaemia were well-correlated with the diabetes rate. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus is increasing far more than expected. Newly diagnosed diabetic patients usually presented with multiple comorbidities, including overweight/ obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia.


Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Undiagnosed Diseases/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Delayed Diagnosis/statistics & numerical data , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Tertiary Care Centers , Vietnam/epidemiology
6.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 33(11): 3028-3034, 2019 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31113712

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the predictive performance of the logistic and additive Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS), a postoperative severity of illness score designed specifically for prediction of mortality in the cardiac surgery intensive care unit. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data between July 1, 2012, and September 30, 2015. SETTING: Single university cardiac surgery intensive care unit in Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult patients (n = 4,519) admitted to the intensive care unit after cardiac surgery. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The mortality predicted by logistic CASUS was calculated for each patient on admission day 0 and postoperative days 2, 4, 7, and 10 using the original model equation. The mortality predicted by additive CASUS was determined on each day with separate logistic regression models, using the total score as a single variable. The observed mortality was 1.8%. Logistic CASUS overestimated mortality by 78%, 59%, 51%, 52%, and 29% on days 0, 2, 4, 7, and 10, respectively. After model updating with logistic calibration, logistic CASUS consistently provided estimates of death comparable with the observed mortality, as determined with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The stability of those estimates was confirmed by bootstrapping. Similar calibration results were obtained with additive CASUS. Logistic and additive CASUS had good discrimination with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve greater than 0.7 on each study day. CONCLUSIONS: Recalibrated logistic CASUS reliably predicts mortality in the intensive care unit after cardiac surgery. Logistic regression models derived from additive CASUS perform as well as logistic CASUS.


Subject(s)
Cardiac Surgical Procedures/methods , Heart Diseases/surgery , Intensive Care Units , Risk Assessment/methods , Aged , Canada/epidemiology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Heart Diseases/mortality , Hospital Mortality/trends , Humans , Male , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Treatment Outcome
7.
Semin Thorac Cardiovasc Surg ; 31(2): 157-163, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30273647

ABSTRACT

It is unknown if anemia in the absence of transfusions is an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiac surgery, and if correction to higher hemoglobin targets impacts these outcomes. This is a retrospective review of 3848 cardiac surgery patients. Propensity matching was completed using 41 covariates. Intraoperative Anemia Analysis matched patients with or without anemia who did not receive intraoperative transfusions (n = 392/group), while Intraoperative Transfusion Analysis matched anemic patients treated conventionally with intraoperative transfusions to end cardiopulmonary bypass hemoglobin greater or less than 95 g/L (n = 261/group). Outcomes of death, renal failure, and 2 composite outcomes were assessed using paired analysis techniques. Study composite 1 consisted of prolonged ventilation, renal failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, or deep sternal wound infection, while composite 2 was the TRICS-III composite. In the Intraoperative Anemia Analysis, anemia was associated with mortality (P = 0.034), stroke (P = 0.021), renal failure (P = 0.015), and a significant increase in the composite measure (control 8.7% vs anemia 16.1%, P = 0.002). These findings were unchanged in patients who did not receive any postoperative transfusions. The Intraoperative Transfusion Analysis showed no difference in mortality or the composite outcome between groups. There was a significant increase in low cardiac output in the lower threshold group (P = 0.001). There were no differences in outcomes between those who did and did not receive postoperative transfusions (P > 0.05). Preoperative anemia in the absence of transfusions is a risk factor for morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery, and there is no evidence that transfusion to higher end cardiopulmonary bypass hemoglobin levels impacted this risk.


Subject(s)
Anemia/complications , Cardiac Surgical Procedures , Heart Diseases/surgery , Anemia/blood , Anemia/mortality , Anemia/therapy , Biomarkers/blood , Blood Transfusion , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Heart Diseases/complications , Heart Diseases/mortality , Hemoglobins/metabolism , Humans , Postoperative Complications/etiology , Propensity Score , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
8.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 7(15)2018 07 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30030214

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasing in prevalence and poses a formidable challenge for clinicians. The cardiac surgery literature consists primarily of small single-center studies with limited follow-up, and the epidemiological features of frailty remain to be elucidated in long-term follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective, cohort study in Ontario, Canada, between 2008 and 2015. Frailty was defined using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups frailty indicator (a multidimensional instrument validated for research using administrative data). The primary outcome was mortality. Mortality rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The hazard of death was assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. Of 40 083 patients, 8803 (22%) were frail. At 4±2 years of follow-up, age- and sex-standardized mortality rate per 1000 person-years was higher in frail (33; 95% confidence interval, 29-36) compared with nonfrail (22; 95% confidence interval, 19-24) patients. Frailty was associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.28) and greater differences in the survival of patients between 40 and 74 years of age than in those who were ≥85 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty was present in a large proportion of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and was independently associated with long-term mortality. The adjusted risk of frailty-related death was inversely proportional to age. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive preoperative risk stratification models to assist with optimal selection of operative candidates. In addition, we identified the <75 years age group as a potential target for comprehensive preoperative optimization programs, such as cardiac prehabilitation, nutritional augmentation, and psychosocial support.


Subject(s)
Coronary Artery Bypass/mortality , Coronary Artery Disease/surgery , Frail Elderly , Frailty/mortality , Population Surveillance , Registries , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cause of Death/trends , Coronary Artery Disease/mortality , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Frailty/complications , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Ontario/epidemiology , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Survival Rate/trends
9.
Perfusion ; 33(1): 83-84, 2018 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28825367

ABSTRACT

Though historically the development of cardiovascular perfusion grew out of the need for cardiopulmonary bypass, the application of technologies of extracorporeal support has more recently expanded beyond the traditional domain of the cardiac surgical operative and peri-operative environment. As a result, perfusionists are sometimes required to work in novel clinical settings. As part of our recent national survey to evaluate the effects of changes in entry-to-practice criteria introduced in Canada in 2006, we asked perfusionists if their current position as a perfusionist involves work outside the OR. We found that, in addition to regularly working in the Intensive Care Unit and Cardiac Catheterization Lab, 55.3% of respondents reported working "occasionally" in the Emergency Room and 74.7% reported working "occasionally" or "often" in other clinical areas. However, while 96% of respondents believed their training adequately prepared them for their job as a perfusionist, only 68% felt their training adequately prepared them for their duties outside the operating room. We also noted a trend that admission under experience-based entry-to-practice criteria was associated with a higher likelihood of perceived adequacy of training in preparation for duties outside the OR than education-based admission criteria (72% vs 59.4%, p=0.065). These findings raise important questions pertaining to the sufficiency of perfusion education in Canada and the influence of soft skills in preparing perfusionists for their duties, and indicate that a systematic study of the practice environment of cardiovascular perfusionists is timely.


Subject(s)
Cardiopulmonary Bypass/education , Perfusion/methods , Cardiopulmonary Bypass/methods , Humans , Surveys and Questionnaires
10.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 105(1): 62-68, 2018 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28965620

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There are significant gender differences in arterial revascularization approaches in coronary operations. This study addressed these differences to determine whether discrepancies are related to underlying risk profiles or systematic gender bias. METHODS: Changes in gender-specific rates of revascularization approaches were determined in 19,557 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). A propensity-balanced group was generated on a subset of 1,254 CABG patients based on 45 pretreatment covariates to assess rates in matched groups (627 patients per group). RESULTS: In the entire cohort, male gender was associated with increased bilateral internal thoracic artery (BITA) use (odds ratio, 1.667; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.166 to 2.386; p = 0.005). Multiple-arterial grafting increased yearly in both genders, but the rate of increase in BITA use was greater in men (1.59%/year [95% CI, 1.56 to 1.63] vs 1.37%/year [95% CI, 1.30 to 1.45], p < 0.001) as was the use of 3 arteries (1.16%/year [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.20] vs 0.73%/year [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80), p < 0.001) and the use of any 2 arteries (2.34%/year (95% CI, 2.32 to 2.35) vs 1.92%/year [95% CI, 1.90 to 1.95], p < 0.001). In the propensity-matched group, there was no difference in BITA use (male: 31.9%, female: 30.1%; p = 0.502), BITA use in low-risk patients (male: 46.4%, female: 38.0%; p = 0.126), or radial artery use (male: 44.5%, female: 44.1%; p = 0.994), but use of 3 arteries was greater in men (10.5% vs 7.3%, p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Women receive less complete multiple arterial coronary revascularization than men. This is likely related to later presentation of coronary artery disease in women with higher comorbidity profiles; however, when matched, bias may still exist limiting the option of grafting with 3 arteries to women.


Subject(s)
Coronary Artery Bypass/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Selection , Propensity Score , Sex Factors
11.
Anesth Analg ; 126(1): 33-38, 2018 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28514319

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with early and late morbidity and mortality of cardiac surgical patients. Prophylactic treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been recommended to improve outcome in cardiac surgical patients at high risk of developing POAF. Reliable models for prediction of POAF are needed to achieve that goal. This study attempted to externally validate 3 risk models proposed for preoperative prediction of POAF in cardiac surgical patients: the POAF score, the CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the Atrial Fibrillation Risk Index. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 1416 adult patients who underwent nonemergent coronary artery bypass graft and/or valve surgery in a single cardiac surgical center between February 2014 and September 2015. A risk score for each of the 3 prediction models was calculated in each patient. All patients were followed for up to 2 weeks, or until hospital discharge, to observe the primary outcome of new onset AF requiring treatment. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Calibration was assessed using the Pearson χ goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots. Utility of the score to implement AF prophylaxis based on the risk of POAF, in comparison to strategies of treating all patients, or not treating any patients, was assessed via a net benefit analysis. RESULTS: Of the 1416 patients included in this study, 478 had the primary outcome (33.8%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prediction of POAF in the population subsets for which the scores were validated were as follows: 0.651 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.621-0.681) for the POAF score, 0.593 (95% CI, 0.557-0.629) for the CHA2DS2-VASc score (P < .001 versus POAF score, P < .222 versus Atrial Fibrillation Risk Index), and 0.563 (95% CI, 0.522-0.604) for the Atrial Fibrillation Risk Index (P < .001 versus POAF score). The calibration analysis showed that the predictive models had a poor fit between the observed and expected rates of POAF. Net benefit analysis showed that AF preventive strategies based on these scores, and targeting patients with moderate or high risk of POAF, improve decision-making in comparison to preventive strategies of treating all patients. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 prediction scores evaluated in this study have limited ability to predict POAF in cardiac surgical patients. Despite this, they may be useful in preventive strategies targeting patients with moderate or high risk of PAOF in comparison with preventive strategies applied to all patients.


Subject(s)
Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis , Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Postoperative Complications/diagnosis , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Preoperative Care/standards , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Preoperative Care/methods , Prospective Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Factors
13.
Perfusion ; 32(4): 296-300, 2017 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27872271

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Years of experience and level of education are two important determinants of a clinician's expertise. While entry-to-practice criteria for admission to perfusion training in Canada changed from clinical experience-based criteria to education-based criteria in 2006, the effects of these changes have not been studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine the academic and clinical backgrounds of perfusionists in Canada, ascertain perceptions about the adequacy of training and evaluate the effects of the changes on the composition of the perfusion community of Canada. METHODS: An electronic questionnaire was distributed to all practicing perfusionists in Canada, addressing details regarding clinical experience, academic education and perceptions about the adequacy of training. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-eight questionnaires were completed, representing a 72% response rate. Perfusionists admitted under academic-based criteria have significantly higher levels of education (100% degree holders vs 69.1%, p<0.001), but less antecedent clinical training and experience (median, IQR: 0, 0 - 4.5 years vs 2, 2 - 8 years, p<0.0001), are younger (median age range 31-35 years vs 51-55 years, p<0.0001), more likely to be female (58.7% vs 41.3%, p=0.006) and are significantly more likely to enter perfusion because of attraction to the type of work (p=0.045). Many perfusionists (70, 32%) in Canada believe themselves inadequately trained for their clinical assignments outside the OR. In addition, 19% of perfusionists plan to retire over the next 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of education-based entry criteria has changed the academic and clinical experience levels of perfusionists in Canada. Strategies designed to better prepare perfusionists for their clinical assignments outside the OR are merited.


Subject(s)
Cardiology/education , Perfusion/methods , Adult , Canada , Cardiology/standards , Cardiovascular Physiological Phenomena , Clinical Competence , Female , Humans , Male , Myocardial Reperfusion/education , Myocardial Reperfusion/standards , Perfusion/standards , Surveys and Questionnaires
14.
Cochrane Database Syst Rev ; (10): CD002788, 2015 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26512948

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients often require a rapid sequence induction (RSI) endotracheal intubation technique during emergencies or electively to protect against aspiration, increased intracranial pressure, or to facilitate intubation. Traditionally succinylcholine has been the most commonly used muscle relaxant for this purpose because of its fast onset and short duration; unfortunately, it can have serious side effects. Rocuronium has been suggested as an alternative to succinylcholine for intubation. This is an update of our Cochrane review published first in 2003 and then updated in 2008 and now in 2015. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether rocuronium creates intubating conditions comparable to those of succinylcholine during RSI intubation. SEARCH METHODS: In our initial review we searched all databases until March 2000, followed by an update to June 2007. This latest update included searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2015, Issue 2), MEDLINE (1966 to February Week 2 2015), and EMBASE (1988 to February 14 2015 ) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or controlled clinical trials (CCTs) relating to the use of rocuronium and succinylcholine. We included foreign language journals and handsearched the references of identified studies for additional citations. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included any RCT or CCT that reported intubating conditions in comparing the use of rocuronium and succinylcholine for RSI or modified RSI in any age group or clinical setting. The dose of rocuronium was at least 0.6 mg/kg and succinylcholine was at least 1 mg/kg. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors (EN and DT) independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality for the 'Risk of bias' tables. We combined the outcomes in Review Manager 5 using a risk ratio (RR) with a random-effects model. MAIN RESULTS: The previous update (2008) had identified 53 potential studies and included 37 combined for meta-analysis. In this latest update we identified a further 13 studies and included 11, summarizing the results of 50 trials including 4151 participants. Overall, succinylcholine was superior to rocuronium for achieving excellent intubating conditions: RR 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.92; n = 4151) and clinically acceptable intubation conditions (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99; n = 3992, 48 trials). A high incidence of detection bias amongst the trials coupled with significant heterogeneity provides moderate-quality evidence for these conclusions, which are unchanged from the previous update. Succinylcholine was more likely to produce excellent intubating conditions when using thiopental as the induction agent: RR 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.88; n = 2302, 28 trials). In the previous update, we had concluded that propofol was the superior induction agent with succinylcholine. There were no reported incidences of severe adverse outcomes. We found no statistical difference in intubation conditions when succinylcholine was compared to 1.2 mg/kg rocuronium; however, succinylcholine was clinically superior as it has a shorter duration of action. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Succinylcholine created superior intubation conditions to rocuronium in achieving excellent and clinically acceptable intubating conditions.


Subject(s)
Androstanols/administration & dosage , Intubation, Intratracheal/methods , Neuromuscular Depolarizing Agents/administration & dosage , Neuromuscular Nondepolarizing Agents/administration & dosage , Succinylcholine/administration & dosage , Humans , Neuromuscular Depolarizing Agents/adverse effects , Neuromuscular Nondepolarizing Agents/adverse effects , Propofol/administration & dosage , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Rocuronium , Succinylcholine/adverse effects
15.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 29(5): 1117-26, 2015 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25857671

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To derive a simple clinical prediction rule identifying patients at high risk of developing new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis on prospectively collected observational data. SETTING: A university-affiliated cardiac hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valve surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Observation for the occurrence of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Details on 28 preoperative variables from 999 patients were collected and significant predictors (p<0.2) were inserted into multivariable logistic regression and reconfirmed with recursive partitioning. A total of 305 (30.5%) patients developed new-onset POAF. Eleven variables were associated significantly with atrial fibrillation. A multivariable logistic regression model included left atrial dilatation, mitral valve disease, and age. Coefficients from the model were converted into a simple 7-point predictive score. The risk of POAF per score is: 15.0%, if 0; 20%, if 1; 27%, if 2; 35%, if 3; 44%, if 4; 53%, if 5; 62%, if 6; and 70%, if 7. A score of 4 has a sensitivity of 44% and a specificity of 82% for POAF. A score of 6 has a sensitivity of 11% and a specificity of 97%. Bootstrapping with 5,000 samples confirmed the final model provided consistent predictions. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposed a simple predictive score incorporating three risk variables to identify cardiac surgical patients at high risk of developing new-onset POAF. Preventive treatment should target patients ≥ 65 years with left atrial dilatation and mitral valve disease.


Subject(s)
Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis , Cardiac Surgical Procedures , Postoperative Complications/diagnosis , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sensitivity and Specificity , Young Adult
16.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg ; 41(2): 307-13, 2012 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21803595

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and the Cardiac Anesthesia Risk Evaluation (CARE) score are risk indices designed in the mid-1990 s to predict mortality after cardiac surgery. This study assesses their ability to provide risk-adjusted mortality in a contemporary cardiac surgical population. METHODS: The mortality probability was estimated with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE, and CARE score, for 3818 patients undergoing cardiac surgery at one institution between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2009. Model discrimination was obtained using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration using the appropriate chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Recalibration of risk models was obtained by logistic calibration, when needed. Calculation of risk-adjusted mortality was performed for the institution and eight surgeons, using each model before and when needed, after recalibration. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve is 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-0.74) with the additive EuroSCORE, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83-0.85) with the logistic EuroSCORE, and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.78-0.81) with the CARE score. The additive and logistic EuroSCORE have poor calibration, predicting a hospital mortality of 6.24% and 7.72%, respectively, versus an observed mortality of 3.25% (P < 0.001). Consequently, the risk-adjusted mortality obtained with those models is significantly underestimated for the institution and all surgeons. The CARE score has good calibration, predicting a mortality of 3.38% (P = 0.50). The hospital risk-adjusted mortality with the recalibrated additive and logistic EuroSCORE and CARE score is 3.24% (95% CI: 3.05-3.43%), 3.25% (95% CI: 3.05-3.44%), and 3.12% (95% CI: 2.94-3.34%), respectively. The individual surgeons' risk-adjusted mortality is similar with the recalibrated EuroSCORE models and CARE score, identifying two surgeons with higher rates than the hospital average mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The original additive and logistic EuroSCORE models significantly overestimate the risk of mortality after cardiac surgery. However, after recalibration both models provide reliable risk-adjusted mortality results. Despite its lower discrimination as compared with the logistic EuroSCORE, the CARE score remains calibrated a decade after its development. It is as robust as the recalibrated additive and logistic EuroSCORE to perform risk-adjusted mortality analysis.


Subject(s)
Cardiac Surgical Procedures/mortality , Severity of Illness Index , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Ontario/epidemiology , Risk Assessment/methods , Sex Factors
17.
Inorg Chem ; 41(22): 5693-8, 2002 Nov 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12401073

ABSTRACT

Two copper-mercury-chalcogenide clusters [Hg(15)Cu(20)E(25)(PPr(3))(18)] (1, E = S; 2, E = Se) are synthesized in good yield from the reaction of (Pr(3)P)(3)Cu-ESiMe(3) and (Pr(3)P)(2).Hg(OAc)(2) at low temperatures. Single-crystal X-ray analyses illustrate that the two ternary clusters are isomorphous and consist of a phosphine-stabilized core of mixed Hg, Cu, and E centers. Thermolysis of 1 leads to the formation of mercury metal and various forms of copper-sulfide. The copper-indium-sulfide cluster [Cu(6)In(8)S(13)Cl(4)(PEt(3))(12)] (3) is similarly prepared in 50% yield from (Et(3)P)(3)Cu-SSiMe(3), InCl(3), and S(SiMe(3))(2).

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