Mobility restrictions were associated with reductions in COVID-19 incidence early in the pandemic: evidence from a real-time evaluation in 34 countries.

Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.

How well does societal mobility restriction help control the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from real-time evaluation

ObjectivesTo determine the impact of restrictions on mobility on reducing transmission of COVID-19. DesignDaily incidence rates lagged by 14 days were regressed on mobility changes using LOESS regression and logit regression between the day of the 100th case in each country to August 31, 2020. Setting34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. ParticipantsGoogle mobility data were obtained from people who turned on mobile device-based global positioning system (GPS) and agreed to share their anonymized position information with Google. InterventionsWe examined the association of COVID-19 incidence rates with mobility changes, defined as changes in categories of domestic location, against a pre-pandemic baseline, using country-specific daily incidence data on newly confirmed COVID-19 cases and mobility data. ResultsIn two thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased COVID-19 incidence, more so early in the pandemic. However, these decreases plateaued as mobility remained low or decreased further. We found smaller or negligible associations between mobility restriction and incidence rates in the late phase in most countries. ConclusionMild to moderate degrees of mobility restriction in most countries were associated with reduced incidence rates of COVID-19 that appear to attenuate over time, while some countries exhibited no effect of such restrictions. More detailed research is needed to precisely understand the benefits and limitations of mobility restrictions as part of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPICSince SARS-CoV-2 became a pandemic, restrictions on mobility such as limitations on travel and closure of offices, restaurants, and shops have been imposed in an unprecedented way in both scale and scope to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the absence of effective treatment options or a vaccine. Although mobility restriction has also brought about tremendous costs such as negative economic growth and other collateral impacts on health such as increased morbidity and mortality from lack of access to other essential health services, little evidence exists on the effectiveness of mobility restriction for the prevention of disease transmission. A search of PUBMED and Google Scholar for publications on this topic through Sep 20, 2020 revealed that most of the evidence on the effectiveness of physical distancing comes from mathematical modeling studies using a variety of assumptions. One study investigated only the combined effect of several interventions, including physical distancing, among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDSThis is the first study to investigate the association between change in mobility and incidence of COVID-19 globally using real-time measures of mobility at the population level. For this, we used Google Global Mobility data and the daily incidence of COVID-19 for 36 countries from the day of 100th case detection through August 31, 2020. Our findings from LOESS regression show that in two-thirds of countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility were associated with decreased COVID-19 incidence, more so early in the pandemic. This decrease, however, plateaued as mobility decreased further. We found that associations between mobility restriction and incidence became smaller or negligible in the late phase of the pandemic in most countries. The reduced incidence rate of COVID-19 cases with a mild to moderate degree of mobility restriction in most countries suggests some value to limited mobility restriction in early phases of epidemic mitigation. The lack of impact in some others, however, suggests further research is needed to confirm these findings and determine the distinguishing factors for when mobility restrictions are helpful in decreasing viral transmission. Governments should carefully consider the level and period of mobility restriction necessary to achieve the desired benefits and minimize harm.

Maternal, neonatal, and child health systems under rapid urbanization: a qualitative study in a suburban district in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam has been successful in increasing access to maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) services during last decades; however, little is known about whether the primary MNCH service utilization has been properly utilized under the recent rapid urbanization. We aimed to examine current MNCH service utilization patterns at a district level. METHODS: The study was conducted qualitatively in a rural district named Quoc Oai. Women who gave a birth within a year and medical staff at various levels participated through 43 individual in-depth interviews and 3 focus group interviews. RESULTS: Primary MNCH services were underutilized due to a failure to meet increased quality needs. Most of the mothers preferred private clinics for antenatal care and the district hospital for delivery due to the better service quality of these facilities compared to that of the commune health stations (CHSs). Mothers had few sociocultural barriers to acquiring service information or utilizing services based on their improved standard of living. A financial burden for some services, including caesarian section, still existed for uninsured mothers, while their insured counterparts had relatively few difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: For the improved macro-efficiency of MNCH systems, the government needs to rearrange human resources and/or merge some CHSs to achieve economies of scale and align with service volume distribution across the different levels.

Association between maternal literacy and child vaccination in Ethiopia and southeastern India and the moderating role of health workers: a multilevel regression analysis of the Young Lives study.

BACKGROUND: Child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries is still far from complete, mainly among marginalized people such as children with illiterate mothers. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine the association between maternal literacy and immunization status of children in Ethiopia and southeastern India (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana) and test whether state-run health centers and community health workers moderate that association. METHODS: This study is based on cross-sectional data from samples of children in Ethiopia and India, collected as part of round 2 within the Young Lives study (2006). Multilevel logistic regression was conducted to estimate the association between maternal literacy and the completion of four kinds of child vaccinations. We further tested for cross-level interactions between state-run health centers or community health workers and maternal literacy. Estimates were adjusted for several individual- and household-level demographic and socioeconomic factors. RESULTS: Literate mothers were more likely to complete all four kinds of vaccinations for their children compared to illiterate mothers in Ethiopia (Odds Ratio (OR)=4.84, Confidence Interval (CI)=1.75-13.36). Presence of a health center was positively associated with completed vaccinations in India only (OR = 6.60, CI = 1.57-27.70). A cross-level interaction between community health workers and maternal literacy on the vaccination completion status of children was significant in Ethiopia only (OR = 0.29, CI = 0.09-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that increased availability of community health workers may reduce the child vaccination gap for illiterate mothers, depending on the country context.

Study Design for the 2016 Baseline Survey of a Health System Strengthening Project in Quoc Oai District, Hanoi, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: In order to provide essential scientific evidence on the population's health status and social health determinants as well as the current capacity of the health care system in Vietnam to health policy makers and managers, Vietnam Ministry of Health, Hanoi University of Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, and Ho Chi Minh University of Medicine and Pharmacy collaborated with Seoul National University (Korea) and conducted a health system survey in the Quoc Oai district (of Hanoi capital) that represented northern rural Vietnam. METHODS: The study design was a cross-sectional study. The survey covered different topics (more than 200 questions) and was administered in three separate questionnaires: 1) Basic information of all household members; 2) Household characteristics; and 3) Individual characteristics. Socio-demographic characteristics among the households and individuals were collected from 2,400 households sampled by multi-stage cluster sampling method: more than 200 questions. RESULTS: The household size of Quoc Oai was larger than the national average and there was no significant difference in gender composition. In addition, the proportions of pre-elderly, age 55-64, and elderly group (65 years old and over) were higher than the national population statistics. In this context, demographic transition has begun in Quoc Oai. CONCLUSION: This study design description provides the basic information about a baseline survey of a future prospective cohort (as a part of a collaborative project on strengthening the health system in Vietnam) to the prospective data user of this survey.

Patterns of Health Expenditures and Financial Protections in Vietnam 1992-2012.

Health financing has been considered as an important building block of a health system and has a key role in promoting universal health coverage in the Vietnam. This paper aims to describe the pattern of health expenditure, including total health expenditure and composition of health expenditure, over the last two decades in Vietnam. The paper mainly uses the data from Vietnam National Health Account and Vietnam Living Standards Survey. We also included data from other relevant published literature, reports and statistics about health care expenditure in Vietnam. The per capita health expenditure in Vietnam increased from US$ 14 in 1995 to US$ 86 in 2012. The total health expenditure as a share of GDP also rose from 5.2% in 1995 to 6.9% in 2012. Public health expenditure as percentage of government expenditure rose from 7.4% in 1995 to nearly 10% in 2012. The coverage of health insurance went up from 10% in 1995 to 68.5% in 2012. However, health financing in Vietnam was depending on private expenditures (57.4% in 2012). As a result, the proportion of households with catastrophic expenditure in 2012 was 4.2%. The rate of impoverishment in 2012 was 2.5%. To ensure equity and efficient goal of health system, policy actions for containing the health care out-of-pocket payments and their poverty impacts are urgently needed in Vietnam.